Avec le début du nouveau trimestre, la confirmation d’un mouvement de baisse se précise. Le surachat du stochastique trimestriel est confirmé par celui du MACD (sur la majorité des indices). Il est donc envisageable d’observer à l’horizon de 6 à 8 mois un mouvement de correction à la baisse. L’ampleur du mouvement sera qualifiée par la suite.
L’article suivant est traduisible à l’aide de Yahoo Babelfish.
Long term: towards PQ (5951)
On a yearly basis, see dynamic for our – 8 period …
On a quarterly basis, the pattern in progress is a bullish Australian one. Our MACD is overbought. A soft bearish divergence is in progress with our stochastic and MACD. MQ (5457) is our main objective if PQ (6167) fails as a support.
On a monthly basis, a close occurred below MM. Stochastic + MACD are overbought. The pattern with our 7 / 23 months moving averages is not yet bearish. PQ (6167) is our next objective and LM (5818) will be the next one.
Idea: LM (5818) is our first strong support.
Medium term: lower
On a weekly basis, the spread UW – LW was not important when a close below LW occurred. The status for our 7 / 23 weeks moving averages is a bearish A type crossover. The trend / dynamic for our 7 weeks moving average is bearish for some weeks. This time frame is not bearish with the monthly status. But, as long as our 7 weeks moving average continue to decline, a rise is only a technical recovery.
Idea: see short term analysis for a weekly technical recovery.
Short term: toppish
On a daily basis, see the dynamic of our 23 days moving average (for a 7 / 23 moving averages crossover). The spread UD / LD is wide. If LD stop to decline, a decline for the DAX Index is likely. MD (6521) is our first support. Otherwise, as long as our MACD is not overbought, the recovery in progress could continue.
Idea: Friday close (Vs Thursday) will give the trend for two weeks.
Conclusion: LM (5818) could be an objective.