Archives mensuelles : octobre 2012

Gold is weak

Long term: higher

On a yearly basis: a type II will be the status at the end of the period. Next year, LY should continue to decline (9 periods). Expect to use Dow Jones 1980 / 2000 bull trend as a benchmark.

On a quarterly basis, a bullish parallel pattern is in progress.

On a monthly basis, the bullish parallel pattern is over since May 2012.

Idea: use the monthly MACD as a leading indicator (weak bearish no-crossover in progress)

Bet:  a technical correction is not ruled out for some months.

R= UM (1821);    S= MM (1636.7), PQ (1527.1)

Medium term: technical correction

On a weekly basis, our MACD is overbought.

Idea: use our weekly stochastic as a leading indicator

Bet: MW as a first target.

R= MD (1743.7);   S= MW (1670.5)

Short term: lower

On a daily basis, TAM tools are not up.

Idea: use our MACD as a leading indicator

Bet: the trend of SAR will give the strength of the move.

R= MD (1743.7);   S= MW (1670.5)

Conclusion: as long as MD= resistance, MW could be a target.

CAC 40: lower

 

 

Long term basis: lower

On a yearly basis, stochastic and MACD could continue to be overbought for two periods or more. As long as MY (end of period) proves to be a resistance, the main trend is not bullish.

On a quarterly basis, LQ / UQ spread is shrinking. A PEI is in progress with our moving averages. Stochastic is oversold.

On a monthly basis; for M23, the trend is bearish. Our stochastic and MACD are oversold. PM could be the main resistance.

Idea: not bullish as long as our monthly M23 is not up

Bet: higher if 3601 fails as a resistance (end of period).

R= 3600.8 (March 2012 high), MQ (3647);    S= LM (2761)

Medium term: below MW?

On a weekly basis, a bearish no-crossover is the status for our stochastic and MACD.

Idea: below MW, LW is our main objective

Bet: lower as long as our weekly stochastic is not oversold.

R= PW (3578.5);               S= MW / LD (3343), LW (3046).

Short term: trading range?

On a daily basis, UD / LD spread is a reference one. No PEI could develop with TAM tools.

Idea: stochastic is our leading indicator

Bet: towards LD or lower.

R= MD (3433);     S= LD (3342).

Conclusion: towards LW if our daily stochastic is not oversold on the LD level.

 

 

CAC 40: higher as long as MD= support

On a yearly basis, stochastic and MACD could continue to be overbought for two periods or more. As long as MY (end of period) proves to be a resistance, the main trend is not bullish.

On a quarterly basis, LQ / UQ spread is shrinking. A PEI is in progress with our moving averages. Stochastic and MACD are oversold.

On a monthly basis; for M23, the trend is bearish. Our stochastic and MACD are oversold. PM could be the main resistance.

Idea: not bullish as long as our monthly M23 is not up

Bet: higher if 3601 fails as a resistance (end of period).

R= 3600.8 (March 2012 high), MQ (3649);    S= LM (2763)

Medium term: towards UW / MQ?

On a weekly basis, as long as M23 is up, MW could act as a support. Above PW, UW is our next resistance.

Idea: warning with a bearish no-crossover for our stochastic and MACD

Bet: MACD is our leading indicator.

R= PW (3583.2), UW (3648.5);               S= MW (3323.7).

Short term: higher?

On a daily basis, UD / LD spread is a reference one. No PEI could develop with TAM tools.

Idea: stochastic is our leading indicator

Bet: towards MD if LD trend is flat.

R= PW (3583.2);     S= MD (3439).

Conclusion: higher as long as MD= support.

10 Y T. Note: lower without a bearish trend

Long term: higher

On a yearly basis: Bands are expending and a PEI is in progress for each component of TAM tools. The up trend should continue for two periods or more.

On a quarterly basis, a bullish parallel pattern is in progress.

On a monthly basis, a type I is in progress.

Idea: use monthly bullish parallel rules

Bet:  Historical new high is not ruled out.

R= UM (138.15);    S= MM (129.1)

Medium term: lower

On a weekly basis, a close below LW is likely. UW is flat and our monthly moving averages are up.

Idea: use our MACD as a leading indicator

Bet: towards MM.

R= MW (133.47), UW (134.84);   S= MM (129.1)

Short term: T2?

On a daily basis, a T2could develop today if a type A is in progress with our moving averages. Bollinger bands spread is a “limit” reference one.

Idea:  with a T2, use it only for intraday trading

Bet:  sell-off below 131.7 (14/9 low).

R= MD (133.17);   S= 131.7.

Conclusion: bearish with a daily T4.

€ / $: quiet for some months

Long term: flat

On a yearly basis, Bollinger bands spread will stay flat. TAM tools are without NEI / PEI.

On a quarterly basis, Bollinger bands spread will stay flat. A PEI is in progress for our moving averages and our MACD. Prices should move lower.

On a monthly basis, the UM / LM spread is above a reference one. M7 is below M23 and MACD is up. MM should act as a resistance.

Idea: Monthly stochastic is our leading indicator

Bet: nothing to do.

R= MM (1.3436);    S= 1.1877 (2010 low), 1.164 (2005 low)

Medium term: recovery

On a weekly basis, Bollinger spread is above a reference one. A weak bullish no-crossover is the status for our stochastic.

Idea: higher if 1.3175 fails as a resistance

Bet: towards LW if MW fails as a support (overbought status for our MACD)

R = 1.3175 (above recent high);     S = MW (1.2599).

Short term: recovery

On a daily basis, no PEI is available for TAM tools. Our stochastic is the leading indicator.

Idea: higher as long as our stochastic is not overbought

Bet: weak below MD.

R = 1.3175;        S = MD (1.2946), LD (1.2825).

Conclusion: as long as MD proves to be a support, the rise in progress will continue.

Gold: weak

Long term: higher

On a yearly basis: a type II will be the status at the end of the period. Next year, LY should continue to decline (9 periods). Expect to use Dow Jones 1980 / 2000 bull trend as a benchmark.

On a quarterly basis, a bullish parallel pattern is in progress.

On a monthly basis, the bullish parallel pattern is over since May 2012.

Idea: use the monthly MACD as a leading indicator

Bet:  a technical correction is not ruled out for some months.

R= UM (1824.4);    S= MM (1637.7), PQ (1527.1)

Medium term: toppish

On a weekly basis, a rise developed with a NEI on the monthly time frame.

Idea: use our weekly MACD as a leading indicator

Bet: MW as a target with an overbought status for our MACD.

R= 1796;   S= MW (1660.3)

Short term: lower

On a daily basis, Bollinger Bands are expending with a NEI on the weekly time frame.

Idea: use our MACD as a leading indicator

Bet: A bearish pre-parallel could develop.

R= MD (1767.8);   S= MW (1660.3)

Conclusion: as long as MD= resistance, MW could be a target.

S&P 500: weak below PW (medium term basis)

Long term basis: towards UY

On a yearly basis, UY could rise at the close. PY failed as a resistance. Stochastic could be oversold at the end of the period. Our moving averages could continue to rise. UY is our main target.

On a quarterly basis, Bollinger bands spread is maximal but shrinking. A bullish no-crossover is in progress with our stochastic and our MACD. UQ is our maximal target.

On a monthly basis, a bullish no-crossover is the status for TAM tools. UM / LM spread is expending.

Idea: monthly MACD as a leading indicator

Bet: yearly MACD will be oversold next period.

R = UY (1658), +++;    S = MM (1319)

Medium term:  bullish type II in progress

On a weekly basis, a type II occurred in T3. A type III could develop next week.

Idea: add long position with a type III

Bet: close long position below PW / bearish below MW (at the close).

R = UW (1486);    S= PW (1422.4), MW (1387)

Short term: weak

On a daily basis; Bollinger bands spread is a reference one. No bearish pattern could develop with a NEI on the weekly basis.

Idea: lower as long as our MACD is not oversold

Bet: MACD could be oversold next Wednesday.

R= MD (1451), UD (1471);                       S= PW (1422.4)

Conclusion: bullish on a medium term basis if PW acts as a support.