Archives mensuelles : novembre 2009

CAC 40: technical correction

Long term basis: MM as a resistance?

On a yearly basis, the status for our stochastic is overbought.

On a quarterly basis, Bollinger bands are flat. The dynamic for our 7 quarters moving average will continue for the next period or more. A bullish A type crossover could develop at the end of 2010. With a bearish non-crossover (in early January 2010) as a status for our stochastic a collapse towards LQ is expected. Otherwise, a recovery towards MQ or UM could develop.

On a monthly basis; a bearish parallel pattern is over since a close above MM occurred (but we are cautious with the turn over for CAC 40 components). With our 7 / 23 months moving averages, a bullish B type crossover could develop within 3 months.

Idea: with a current close above MM, MQ could be our next target.

R = MM (3672, end of month), MQ (4542);    S = MW (3636), LW (3276)

 

Medium term: bearish no-crossover with PW

On a weekly basis, Bollinger Bands spread is thin. PW acted as a resistance and last week low failed as a support. A bearish non-crossover is in progress with our stochastic and our MACD. With this hypothesis, LW will be our main objective.

Idea: technical correction as long as M23 trend is up.

R = PW (3871)               S= MW (3636), LW (3276)       

  

 

Short term: UD / LD spread is not minimal.

On a daily basis, UD / LD spread is not minimal. With a close below MD, LD is our next target.

Idea: nothing to do next week.

R = MD (3752);     S= LD (3600)

 

Conclusion: towards LW if MW fails as a support (at the close).

 

10 Y T-Note: new analysis

Long term: UQ is our first target (new analysis)

On a yearly basis, Bollinger bands could be flat next period. The trend for our 7 / 23 years moving averages is slightly up. Our stochastic and MACD are oversold.

On a quarterly basis, UQ / LQ spread increase. A bullish A type crossover is in progress with our 7 / 23 quarters moving averages. A Bullish no-crossover is the status for our MACD. UQ is our first target.

On a monthly basis, UM / LM spread is near its maximal level. A bullish A type crossover could develop next month with our 7 / 23 months moving averages. The bearish divergence for our stochastic will be over next month. UM could be a target.

Idea: with a close above MM, UM is our main target.

 R = UQ (123.41), UM (125.05);    S = MM (118.09), LM (111.12)

 

Medium term (March 00): UW / LW spread is minimal

On a weekly basis, UW / LW spread is near its minimal level. Our 7 / 23 weeks moving averages are up. Our stochastic is oversold and a weak bullish no-crossover is in progress with our MACD. UW) is our first resistance.

Idea: with the monthly trend, no bullish pattern could develop.

R =UW (118.61), UQ (123.41);      S = PW (115.47)

 

Short term: bullish parallel pattern

On a daily basis, the dynamic for UD / LD spread is increasing with a bullish crossover PD / MD. The weekly trend is up. Next week, a bullish parallel pattern will be in hand.

Idea: bullish no-crossover for our stochastic.

 

R = UW (118.61);       S = MD (117.08)

 

Conclusion: above 119.91, UY (121.31) could be an objective (stop-loss is MD level)

 

Cataclysme / Cataclysm

Un événement majeur au niveau mondial (financier, économique, monétaire, politique etc) est sur le point d’être dévoilé / intervenir et va produire un bouleversement sans précédent depuis le début du dix neuvième siècle sur l’ensemble des marchés financiers. Qu’elle sera la date exacte ? Dans trois jours, trois semaines ou trois mois, nous n’en savons rien. Mais il devient urgent de prendre des dispositions. L’achat d’or reste la meilleure protection contre ce cataclysme qui semble inévitable et auquel la majorité des états s’attendent.

A major event in the world (financial, economic, monetary, etc.) is about to be unveiled / will be in progress soon and will produce an upheaval not seen since the early nineteenth century on all financial markets. What will be the exact date? In three days, three weeks or three months, we do not know. But buying gold is the best protection against this Tsunami that seems inevitable and which most states expect.

  

Philippe Cahen 25/11/2009

Dernière opportunité pour se placer sur l’or ?

La puissance du signal actuel ( sur un horizon semaines / trimestres – années) est sans équivalent depuis 1970 sur un marché majeur. Toutes les spécificités de l’ATDMF se retrouvent sur les diverses unités de temps. Si comme prévu, l’explosion des cours se produit dans les deux prochaines années, ceci signifiera bien que l’ATDMF a résolu le problème de la prévision des fortes fluctuations sur les marchés financiers. Certains indices permettent de penser que cet avis est partagé par un nombre croissant d’observateurs.

Si vous avez lu des analyses sur l’avenir de l’or, il est possible de nous les envoyer pour en faire profiter les lecteurs de notre site.  Les analyses qui ne privilégient pas la hausse de l’or sont également intéressantes, car passer à coté d’un événement majeur  n’est pas neutre. La majorité des économistes (et des mauvais analystes techniques) continuent de baser leurs prévisions en appuyant leurs analyses sur le passé. Nous avons précédemment expliqué que cette approche est obsolète dans un monde en pleine mutation. La prévision à long terme ne peut se concevoir que par la présence d’informations exceptionnelles dans un court terme à venir. Actuellement l’ATDMF 2010 est la seule approche basée sur cette idée.

Contact : atdmfcahen@yahoo.fr

Gold: last opportunity

Yearly trend: bullish for more than 2 years.

On a yearly basis, a bullish parallel pattern is in progress with a strong dynamic for MY. The dynamic for each band is very strong. PY will cross MY in more than two periods. On a Historical basis, one of the most bullish patterns ever seen (since the end of XIX century). 

Idea: bullish non-crossover for our stochastic.

 

Long term: quarterly bullish parallel pattern

On a quarterly basis, the pattern is a bullish parallel one. The dynamic for our 7 / 23 quarters moving averages is strong. The status in progress for our MACD is a bullish non-crossover with an oversold status for our stochastic. A new bull move is in progress.

On a monthly basis, a strong bearish dynamic is in progress with LM. Our 7 / 23 moving averages will continue to rise with a bullish non-crossover as a status. With our stochastic, the status is similar. As long as MM proves to be a support, a decline is only a technical move.

Idea:  the bull trend will expend for some quarters

R = rise > 2 years, +++ (could be above 2 000);    S = MM (913)

   

Medium term: weekly bullish parallel pattern

On a weekly basis, PW crossed MW with a nice bearish dynamic for LW, a bullish trend for our monthly basis and no correction after the crossover. Our 7 / 23 weeks moving averages are up with a bullish non-crossover as a status. The same pattern is in progress our stochastic and MACD.  PW is a strong support.

Idea: LW will continue to deep.

R = +++;       S = PW (1038)

 

Short term: bullish pattern

On a daily basis, UD / LD spread is expending more than 8 periods after T1.This move having an exceptional strength.  When a pseudo T1 occurred, The Bollinger spread was not minimal. PD crossed MD with a strong bearish dynamic for LD, a bullish trend for our weekly basis and no correction after the crossover (if 1118, yesterday low, proves to be a support until tomorrow). Tonight, if the dynamic for LD don’t decrease, a new bullish parallel pattern will be in hand.

Idea: Wednesday (18/11), could be the last opportunity to finish building long position.

 

R = +++;       S = MD (1079), PW (1038)

 

Conclusion: as long as MW (1002) proves to be a support, hold long positions.

 

 

 

L’or

Les cours de l’or suivent les principes de l’ATDMF 2010. Si vous ne savez pas comment faire, suivez notre formation de base puis faites le placement du siècle.  

Renseignements : atdmfcahen@yahoo.fr

10 Y T-Note: rise above 119.77

Long term: new bear trend?

On a yearly basis, Bollinger bands could be flat next period. The trend for our 7 / 23 years moving averages is slightly up. Our stochastic could be overbought at the end of this period with a bearish divergence. Below MY, the main trend will be bearish.

On a quarterly basis, for our stochastic the status is a bearish divergence (worst for the 30 Y US T-Bond contracts). With this hypothesis, MQ is our first support. LQ could stay flat.  PQ could act as a support.

On a monthly basis, UM / LM spread is near its maximal level. A bearish B type crossover could develop for our 7 / 23 months moving. A bearish non-crossover could be the status for our stochastic (and a bearish divergence is in progress). LM is our next objective.

Idea: with a close below MM, LM is our main target.

 R = UW (119.23), UM (124.97);    S = LM (111.1), PQ (110.61), MY (109.43)

 

Medium term: UW / LW spread is minimal

On a weekly basis, UW / LW spread is near its minimal level. Our 7 / 23 weeks moving averages are neutral. 119.77 is our main resistance.

Idea: with the monthly trend, no bullish pattern could develop.

R =119.77 (current high);      S = MW (117.55), PW (115.81)

 

Short term: UD / LD spread is minimal

On a daily basis, UD / LD spread is not minimal. Above 119.77, a bullish pattern is not ruled out.

Idea: nice dynamic for LD yesterday with our daily T1 pattern.

 

R = 119.77;       S = MD (118.10), LD (117.36)

 

Conclusion: above 119.77 UM (124.97) could be an objective (stop-loss is MD level)