10 Y T-Note: rise above 119.77

Long term: new bear trend?

On a yearly basis, Bollinger bands could be flat next period. The trend for our 7 / 23 years moving averages is slightly up. Our stochastic could be overbought at the end of this period with a bearish divergence. Below MY, the main trend will be bearish.

On a quarterly basis, for our stochastic the status is a bearish divergence (worst for the 30 Y US T-Bond contracts). With this hypothesis, MQ is our first support. LQ could stay flat.  PQ could act as a support.

On a monthly basis, UM / LM spread is near its maximal level. A bearish B type crossover could develop for our 7 / 23 months moving. A bearish non-crossover could be the status for our stochastic (and a bearish divergence is in progress). LM is our next objective.

Idea: with a close below MM, LM is our main target.

 R = UW (119.23), UM (124.97);    S = LM (111.1), PQ (110.61), MY (109.43)

 

Medium term: UW / LW spread is minimal

On a weekly basis, UW / LW spread is near its minimal level. Our 7 / 23 weeks moving averages are neutral. 119.77 is our main resistance.

Idea: with the monthly trend, no bullish pattern could develop.

R =119.77 (current high);      S = MW (117.55), PW (115.81)

 

Short term: UD / LD spread is minimal

On a daily basis, UD / LD spread is not minimal. Above 119.77, a bullish pattern is not ruled out.

Idea: nice dynamic for LD yesterday with our daily T1 pattern.

 

R = 119.77;       S = MD (118.10), LD (117.36)

 

Conclusion: above 119.77 UM (124.97) could be an objective (stop-loss is MD level)

 

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