Archives mensuelles : juillet 2010

S&P 500: wait one more week…

Long term basis: Yearly bearish divergence with our stochastic and MACD => 500 as a first target

On a yearly basis, the status for our MACD is a bearish divergence. Furthermore, our MACD and stochastic are overbought at the same period: a sharp decline is expected. The collapse in progress could amplify. 500 and LY are our next supports.

On a quarterly basis, a bearish A type crossover is in progress with our 7 / 23 quarters moving averages (in 2002, the crossover was a bearish B type). MQ acts as a resistance. A bearish no-crossover is the status for our MACD. LQ is our first support. If Bollinger bands spread increase, 666 (2009 low) will be our next target. The Collapse will continue as long as our MACD will be not oversold (end of period).

On a monthly basis, Bollinger bands spread is wide. UM should act as a resistance. A bearish A type crossover could be the status for our 7 / 23 months moving averages. Our stochastic is overbought.

Idea: towards LY if our MACD status id overbought.

Bet: Q2 close without recovery was bearish

R = UM (1219);    S = MY (959), LM (754), 666 (current low), 500, LY (277)


Medium term: bearish no-crossover as a status for stochastic and MACD

On a weekly basis, Bollinger band spread is increasing. The status for our 7 / 23 weeks moving averages is a bearish A type crossover. Dynamic over -24 periods is the most significant indicator after mid July. The status for our stochastic and MACD is a nice bearish no-crossover. MY is our first target.

Idea: bearish as long as our stochastic is not oversold

Bet: bearish pre-parallel in August


R = MW (1127);    S= MY (959)



Short term: flat

On a daily basis, Bollinger bands spread is wide and flat. Above MD, UD is our next main objective. LD is a strong support.

Idea: wait for Q2 earnings results


R = MD (1070), UD (1138);                    S= LD (1014)


Conclusion:  wait