Notre précédente prévision sur le CAC (cf l’article du 11/03/2015 ) développée au Salon de l’analyse technique reste d’actualité.
Deux niveaux à surveiller : MD ( 5133 le 21/04) et PD (5266.8 le 21/04).
Tant que MD sert de support en clôture le test de PY (5349.8) reste notre priorité. Une fois ce niveau dépassé, UY (6003.2) l’objectif suivant devrait être testé rapidement. 6944 sera envisageable par la suite.
Si MD ne tient pas, LD (4966 le 21/04) sera un support puissant.
S’agit-il de la prochaine année ou de l’objectif du CAC 40 ?
Réponse : les deux mon capitaine…
Renseignements : atdmfcahen@yahoo.fr
CAC 40 : 1er objectif 4177
IEP (non croisements baissiers) sur le stochastique et le MACD du graphique quotidien=> LW (4177)
ensuite on avisera.
Long term basis: not yet bullish
On a yearly basis, stochastic and MACD could continue to be overbought. As long as MY (end of period) proves to be a resistance, the main trend is not bullish.
On a quarterly basis, LQ / UQ spread is shrinking. Our stochastic and MACD are oversold. Our moving averages trend is not bullish.
On a monthly basis, a type B is the status for our moving averages.
Idea: with an overbought status for our monthly MACD a bearish no-crossover could be the next status for our quarterly moving averages
Bet: MM will fail as a support if the next status for our monthly MACD is overbought.
R= UM (3980); S= MM (3454), LM (2928)
Medium term: lower for 3 weeks or more
On a weekly basis, Bollinger bands spread is a reference one.
Idea: LW is our first support
Bet: with an uptrend for UW, MM could be an objective.
R= MW (3799); S= LW (3583), MM (3454).
Short term: lower
On a daily basis, TAM tools are bearish.
Idea: use our MACD as a leading indicator
Bet: towards LW or below.
R= MD (3868); S= LW (3583)
Conclusion: focus on monthly MACD.
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Long term basis: Bullish as long as monthly MACD is not overbought
On a yearly basis, PY failed as a resistance. Stochastic is oversold. Our moving averages could continue to rise.
On a quarterly basis, Bollinger Bands spread is maximal but continue to increase. A bullish no-crossover is the status for our stochastic and MACD.
On a monthly basis, a bullish no-crossover is the status for each TAM tool. A type II is in progress.
Idea: use monthly parallel rules
Bet: bullish
R = monthly MACD overbought; S = MM (1398)
Weekly basis: bullish
On a weekly basis, a bullish type II is in progress.
Idea: use parallels rules
Bet: bullish for some weeks.
R = weekly MACD overbought; S= MW (1528)
Daily basis: a type II could develop
On a daily basis, Bollinger bands are expending. If a PEI is the next status for our stochastic, a strong up move will develop.
Idea: focus on our daily stochastic
Bet: a decline will be a technical one as long as MD= support. .
R= daily MACD overbought; S= MD (1586)
Conclusion: bullish on a long term basis.
Long term basis: not yet bullish
On a yearly basis, stochastic and MACD could continue to be overbought. The rise in progress is only a technical recovery.
On a quarterly basis, LQ / UQ spread is shrinking. Our stochastic and MACD are oversold. Our moving averages are neutral.
On a monthly basis, a type B is the status for our moving averages.
Idea: monthly stochastic is our leading indicator
Bet: UM is a strong resistance (end of period).
R= UM (3661), 4169 (Feb 2011 high); S= MM (3373)
Medium term: weak
On a weekly basis, our stochastic and MACD are overbought.
Idea: MACD is our leading indicator
Bet: towards LW if PW fails as a support.
R= UW (3862); S= PW (3646), LW (3519).
Short term: lower
On a daily basis, UD / LD spread is a reference one. A PEI is the status for our MACD.
Idea: use our MACD as a leading indicator
Bet: too early for a sell-off
R= MW (3792); S= PW (3646)
Conclusion: As long as PD proves to be a resistance, PW could fail as a support.
Warning: see (one more time) 03/04 article and atdmfcahen@yahoo.fr for explanations
Long term: focus on the quarterly basis.
On a yearly basis, our stochastic and MACD are oversold. Our 7 / 23 years moving averages are up with a PEI. UY is our first resistance.
On a quarterly basis, a type II will be in progress if LQ trend is down at the end of March. Otherwise, a bearish divergence is likely for our stochastic.
On a monthly basis, a type III is not in progress (NEI with monthly MACD).
Idea: use monthly parallel rules
Bet: bullish as long as MM= support.
R= UM (2958), S= MM (2581), LM (2163).
Medium term: rise but not bullish
On a weekly basis, UW / LW spread is expending. A PEI is the status for our stochastic and MACD. A NEI is in progress with our moving averages and on the upper time frame.
Idea: use our weekly MACD as a leading indicator
Bet: choppy.
R= UW (2830); S=MW (2696).
Daily basis: higher
A bullish no-crossover is the status of our stochastic and MACD. A NEI is in progress on the upper time frame.
Idea: use our daily MACD as a leading indicator
Bet: wait.
R= UW (2831); S= MD (2765)
Conclusion: higher, on a medium term basis, as long as MW= support.
Long term basis: not yet bullish
On a yearly basis, TAM tools are not up.
On a quarterly basis, LQ / UQ spread is shrinking. A bullish no-crossover is the status for our stochastic but MQ trend is bearish.
On a monthly basis, Bollinger bands spread is a reference one. A NEI is in progress on the upper time frame.
Idea: monthly MACD is our leading indicator
Bet: UQ as a first resistance.
R= UQ (12332); S= MQ (9904)
Medium term: bullish
On a weekly basis, T12 was in progress with a bearish trend for LW.
Idea: use bullish parallel rules
Bet: towards UQ is expected.
R= UQ (12332); S= PW (11016).
Short term: bullish without pattern
On a daily basis, no PEI is in progress with TAM tools..
Idea: use our MACD as a leading indicator
Bet: towards UQ.
R= UQ (12332); S= MD (11466).
Conclusion: bullish on a medium term basis.
Long term basis: not yet bullish
On a yearly basis, TAM tools are not up.
On a quarterly basis, LQ / UQ spread is shrinking. A bullish no-crossover is the status for our stochastic but MQ trend is bearish.
On a monthly basis, Bollinger bands spread is a reference one. A NEI is in progress on the upper time frame.
Idea: monthly MACD is our leading indicator
Bet: UQ as a first resistance.
R= UQ (12265); S= M (9883)
Medium term: bullish
On a weekly basis, T12 was in progress with a bearish trend for LW.
Idea: use bullish parallel rules
Bet: towards UQ is expected.
R= UQ (12265); S= PW (10489).
Short term: bullish
On a daily basis, a type III is in progress.
Idea: use our bullish parallel rules
Bet: higher.
R= UQ (12265); S= MD (11016).
Conclusion: towards UQ or above.