Archives mensuelles : juin 2012

Crude oil: below 74.95 is not ruled out

Long term: below 74.95 is likely

On a quarterly basis, our MACD is overbought.

On a monthly basis, UM / LM spread could be a reference one. As long as our stochastic is not oversold the decline could continue or amplify.

Idea: below 74.95, LQ could be a target

Bet: UM / LM spread could increase.

R= MM (95.48);   S= 74.95, LQ (48.5)

Medium term: weak for some weeks

On a weekly basis, Bollinger bands spread is increasing. No type I or II could develop.

Idea: MACD as a benchmark

Bet: a collapse is not ruled out (IEP for UW in July).

R = PW (89.9);     S = 74.95.

Short term: bearish parallel pattern

On a daily basis, a bearish parallel pattern is in progress.

Idea: PD / MD will act as a resistance

Bet: lower.

R = PD / MD (83.8);    S= 74.95.

Conclusion: hold on short position.

La curiosité, principale qualité d’un analyste technique

Si vous n’êtes pas curieux vous allez manquer la prise de position la plus évidente. Elle ne concerne pas un titre à 8 € dont les échanges moyens au quotidien n’excèdent pas 1 000 unités mais un produit sur lequel vous pouvez opérer sur 100 000 € « one shot » sans faire décaler les cours.

Il y a des configurations techniques où le risque sur Air Liquide est bien plus important et nettement moins rémunérateur que sur des produits ignorés ou réputés dangereux.

Sur un marché où la tendance est très marquée, il est possible d’opérer en intraday. Pour cela il faut posséder les outils techniques qui permettent d’opérer en toute sérénité.

L’ATDMF 2011 met à votre disposition tous les outils nécessaires pour pouvoir prendre rapidement les bonnes décisions.

Durant nos formations nous vous apprenons non seulement l’utilisation d’indicateurs performants mais surtout nous  vous apprenons à avoir les bons réflexes. Ceci ne peut pas se décrire dans un ouvrage. Il est nécessaire qu’un tuteur puisse vous entrainer pour vous faire remarquer vos erreurs et vous indiquer comment augmenter la rapidité de vos prises de décisions. Ainsi vous pourrez acquérir cet automatisme qui fait la différence entre un particulier et un professionnel. Vous avez compris que cette formation ne peut se faire que pour une seule personne à la fois. C’est ce que nous vous proposons sur 3 jours pour une formation de base puis sur cinq jours pour une formation intraday.  Il ne vous reste plus qu’à choisir vos dates en semaine ou à cheval sur un week-end y compris en juillet et août (dans la limite des places disponibles).

Une fois inscrit(e), une analyse très spéciale vous sera envoyée.

Renseignements : atdmfcahen@yahoo.fr

Philippe Cahen

www.youtube.com/watch?v=hUVDQfCe7KE

Forex : le désert.

Aucune position à prendre sur un graphique quotidien ou hebdomadaire. Cette situation devrait se prolonger au minimum jusqu’à la mi-juillet. Vous avez donc compris que la volatilité va atteindre un minimum. Ceci permettra une explosion des cours avant le mois de septembre. Préparez-vous en lisant l’analyse technique aujourd’hui : la méthode ATDMF (Economica, éditeur). Pour être parfaitement opérationnel, nous vous proposons une formation de 3 jours aux dates que vous souhaitez à partir du 17 juillet.

Pour les formations de juillet et août, nous proposons une réduction du prix de cette formation allant de 30 à 50 %.

Renseignements : atdmfcahen@yahoo.fr

S&P 500: technical recovery

Long term basis: rise if PY fails as a resistance

On a yearly basis, Bollinger bands spread is shrinking slowly. Stochastic could be oversold at the end of the period. Our moving averages could continue to rise. Above PY, UY is our main target. As long as PY proves to be a resistance, a type III could develop. With this hypothesis, MY is our main objective.

On a quarterly basis, LQ / UQ spread is maximal but shrinking. A bullish no-crossover is in progress with our stochastic and our MACD. UQ is our maximal target.

On a monthly basis, a PEI is in progress with our moving averages.

Idea: focus on the next status for our monthly stochastic and MACD (bearish divergence)

Bet: rise if PY fails as a resistance.

R = PY (1471), UM (1417);    S = MM (1288), LM (1159)

Medium term: decline

On a weekly basis, a bearish pre-parallel could develop within some periods.

Idea: nothing to do this week

Bet: MW will act as a resistance.

R = MW (1358);    S= MM (1288)

Short term: trading range

On a daily basis; UD / LD spread is a reference one. Without a PEI, the rise in progress is a technical recovery.

Bet: towards UD.

R = UD (1338);                       S= MD (1310), LD (1283)

Conclusion: weak.

€ / $: a collapse could develop within a month

Long term: weak

On a yearly basis, Bollinger bands spread is not minimal. Our 7 / 23 years moving averages are slightly bullish until the next period. Stochastic is overbought. UY is a far away resistance and MY is our first support.

On a quarterly basis, Bollinger spread is a reference one and UQ / LQ spread is expending. A bearish no-crossover is the status for each of TAM tools. June 2010 low (1.1877) is our first objective.

On a monthly basis, the UM / LM spread is above a reference one but is expending. A bearish no-crossover is the status for our stochastic. MM is a far away resistance. Below 1.1877 a collapse is expected.

Idea: lower as long as our monthly stochastic is not oversold

Bet: below 1.1877 is not ruled out.

R= MM (1.3592);    S= LQ (1.234), 1.1877, 1.000.

Medium term: lower

On a weekly basis, UW / LW spread is expending. No PEI is in progress.

Idea: lower with as long as our stochastic is not oversold

Bet: a bearish no-crossover could be the status for our stochastic.

R = MW (1.3028);     S = LQ (1.234).

Short term: bearish parallel pattern

On a daily basis, a bearish parallel pattern is in progress.

Idea: use bearish parallel pattern rules

Bet: a bearish no-crossover could be the status for our moving averages.

R = MD (1.2547);   S = LD (1.2327).

Conclusion: with a bearish no-crossover as a status for our weekly stochastic, a collapse will develop.

Gold: next week, focus on weekly M23 trend

Yearly trend: in 2012 /2013, qualification into a new bullish parallel pattern?

On a yearly basis, a bullish parallel pattern is in progress with a strong dynamic for LY. A type II is expected at the end of 2012 and nine periods of bear trend for LY could be in hand at the end of 2013. On a global Historical basis, could be one of the most bullish pattern ever seen (since the end of XIX century).

Idea: focus on LY trend

Bet: S&P 500 rise in the 1986 / 2000 as a benchmark at the end of 2013.

Long term: bullish parallel on a quarterly basis

On a quarterly basis, the pattern is a bullish parallel one. A weak type I is in progress. The dynamic for our 7 / 23 quarters moving averages is strong and continue thru 2013.

On a monthly basis, the status for our stochastic and the MACD is a bearish no-crossover.

Idea: lower as long as our monthly stochastic is not oversold

Bet: towards LM if Dec. low (1522) fails as a support.

R= UM (1835);    S= 1522, 1500, LM (1317)

Medium term: trading range

On a weekly basis, UW / LW spread is maximal for a reference one. No PEI / NEI is in progress.

Idea: M23 trend will give the medium term trend

Bet: with a bearish no-crossover for our MACD a collapse could develop.

R= MW (1656.6);   S= 1522.

Short term: trading range

On a daily basis, UD / LD spread is above a reference one.

Idea: UD should be a resistance and LD should be a support

Bet: UD / LD spread will shrink.

R= UD (1627.5);   S= MD (1581.4), LD (1536.2).

Conclusion: focus on weekly M23 trend.

C 40: warning next month

Long term basis: lower

On a yearly basis, stochastic and MACD could continue to be overbought for two periods or more. As long as MY (end of period) proves to be a resistance, the main trend is not bullish.

On a quarterly basis, LQ / UQ spread is maximal but shrinking. A PEI is in progress with our moving averages and our MACD.

On a monthly basis, a PEI is the status for our moving averages. A bearish trend for some periods is in progress.

Idea: towards 2400

Bet: lower.

R = MM (3517);    S = 2400, – – -.

Medium term: decline / bearish

On a weekly basis, a weak type II is in progress.

Idea: focus on UW and PW trend

Bet: bearish for 3 months or + with a PEI for our stochastic and MACD.

R = MW (3291);               S= -.

Short term: without trend

On a daily basis, UD / LD spread is minimal. A weak bearish no-crossover is the status for our moving averages. LD trend is not bearish.

Idea: no bull trend could develop

Bet: nothing to do as long as a NEI is in progress.

R = UD (3110);     S= MD (3034), LD (2958).