Editorial,
Votre approche de l’analyse technique / votre courtier vous prépare t’il à prendre une position à la baisse aujourd’hui sur les contrats du 10 year T-Note et sur le contrat Eurodollar 3 mois ? Si ce n’est pas le cas, il est temps de se poser des questions. A l’aide de l’ATDMF, les plus beaux signaux (identiques à celui sur le USD – CHF du 27/02/08) pour prendre une position, peuvent être observés ce jour. La condition nécessaire et suffisante : un nouveau point bas sur ces deux contrats Vs la séance du 28 mai : 112.60 pour le 10Y et 96.13 pour l’Eurodollar.
Rappelons que ces deux contrats sont les indicateurs majeurs, sur une base mondiale, du comportement des autres marchés financiers (expliqué et enseigné lors de nos formations à l’ATDMF 2007). Rater un retournement de tendance de ces deux contrats est une faute professionnelle majeure pour un analyste technique (il sera intéressant d’étudier les réactions des économistes).
Vous souhaitez faire rapidement des plus-values importantes ? Focalisez-vous et vivez avec les contrats 10 Y T Note et Eurodollar 3 mois (aucun risque de squeeze vu les montants traités chaque jour –contrats futures et options). Avec l’ATDMF, vous aurez une longueur d’avance sur les marchés. Contact : atdmfcahen@yahoo.fr
Vu l’impact très négatif sur l’immobilier (…), ne comptez pas sur vos journaux pour promouvoir ces mouvements.
Contrats Futures US
Le texte suivant est traduisible à l’aide de Yahoo Babel Fish.
10Year T-Note
Long term: T2, on a quarter basis, is unlikely
On a yearly basis, the status for our MACD is a bearish non-crossover. The status for our 7 / 2 3 years moving averages is a bullish non-crossover but the dynamic will be less bullish. UY is flat. Now, MY (107.98) is our next target.
On a quarterly basis, the spread UQ / LQ is minimal. Bollinger bands diverged at the end of Q1 with a close above UQ. Now, UQ and LQ are flat. The status for our stochastic and MACD could be overbought at the end of this year. Next period, the pattern for our 7 / 23 quarters moving averages could be a bullish B type crossover. As long as UQ 116.82) act as a resistance this time frame is without trend.
On a monthly basis, the trend for our 7 months moving averages will be toppish. A bullish crossover PM / MM is in progress without a divergence between UM and LM. A technical decline could develop towards PM (111.1).
Idea: on a monthly basis, use parallels rules.
Medium term: not bearish, but a strong decline
On a weekly basis, the spread UW / LW is not minimal but a close below LW is expected with a strong dynamic for each Bollinger band. The status for our 7 / 23 weeks moving averages is a bearish A type crossover (end of this week). A bearish non-crossover is the status for our stochastic and MACD.MM (110.53) is our first target.
Idea: nothing to do (see monthly trend)
Short term: bearish T2 today
On a daily basis, with a new low today (below 112.6) all rules will be in hand to have a bearish T2.
Idea: don’t forget a stop-loss with your short position.
Conclusion: opportunity of the year for Future lovers with a daily T2.
Eurodollar contract (September 08 contract)
Long term: less bullish
On a yearly basis, a bullish non-crossover occurred between prices and PY (3 and 2 periods ago). This pattern is very bullish.
On a quarterly basis, UQ / LQ spread is wide but shrinking very slowly. Stochastic and MACD are oversold without a bullish dynamic. The dynamic for our 7 quarters moving average is strongly up. Prices will stabilize.
On a monthly basis (September 08 contract) the trend for our 7 months moving averages is toppish. A bullish crossover PM / MM is in progress with a technical decline for prices. MM (95.67) is our next objective.
Idea: bearish correction on the monthly chart.
Medium term: lower
On a weekly basis, Bollinger bands spread is not minimal but the spread is increasing strongly with our next close below LW. Current status for our 7 / 23 weeks moving averages is a weak bearish A type crossover. A bearish non-crossover is the status for our stochastic. MM (95.67) is our first objective.
Idea: below MM without a bear trend.
Short term: lower
On a daily basis, UD / LD spread is minimal (not really true). With a new low (below 96.14), a nice bearish T2 will develop.
Idea: don’t forget your stop-loss.
Conclusion: lower (new medium bear trend???)
