Archives mensuelles : juin 2010

Troubles de la communication ?

 

Certaines personnes parlent pudiquement de « double deep » pour caractériser la mollesse actuelle de l’économie. Avec l’ATDMF nous pensons qu’il serait honnête de dire que la reprise est terminée. 

En effet, le premier terme laisse penser « qu’au pire », la situation de début 2009 pourrait être égalée. Les analyses à l’aide de l’ATDMF des indices boursiers et des banques / compagnies d’assurances permettent d’avoir un point de vue différent.  Il s’agit d’une nouvelle situation à long terme portant sur plusieurs trimestres (années ?). Depuis plus d’un an nous répétons que les objectifs sont ceux du début de la hausse des années 90. Jusqu’à maintenant, l’ATDMF permettait de dire que cet événement se produirait si certaines conditions sont remplies. A partir du 1er juillet nous changeons de langage. Nous disons que tant que ces conditions ne sont pas remises en cause, l’effondrement des économies occidentales ne pourra que s’amplifier.

Laissez aux autres les dépressions nerveuses, les nuits hantées par des cauchemars liés à la disparition de leur capital. Utilisez l’ATDMF pour profiter des mouvements exceptionnels sur différents supports financiers, vivre une aventure exceptionnelle et vous enrichir.

 

atdmfcahen@yahoo.fr

Crude oil: technical recovery?

Yearly trend: higher

On a yearly basis, the pattern in progress is a bullish parallel pattern. The status for our MACD is a bullish no-crossover. Our 7 / 23 years moving averages are always on a bull trend.

Idea: use bullish parallel rules

Bet: qualification into a bullish bubble?

 

Long term: flat

On a quarterly basis, the spread UQ / LQ is maximal but shrinking slowly. With our 7 / 23 quarters moving averages, a bullish pseudo no-crossover could develop this year. Without a bearish no-crossover as a status for our stochastic, a rise will develop and UM will be a target. Meanwhile, a bearish no-crossover could be the status for our stochastic and MACD. With this hypothesis (end of period) LQ will be our main target.

On a monthly basis, the spread UM / LM is flat and far away from its minimal level. With a close below MM and an overbought status for our stochastic and MACD, LM will be our favourite objective.

Idea: bearish no-crossover for our quarterly stochastic (and MACD)

Bet: monthly Bollinger bands could stabilize in early summer

R= UM (93.35);    S= MM (66), LQ (36.64)

 

Medium term: rise?

On a weekly basis, the spread UW / LW is shrinking but not yet minimal. A bearish A type crossover is in progress with our moving averages. The MACD is oversold. PW and UW are our objectives.

Idea: as long as PW = resistance a rise could be a technical recovery.

Bet: nothing to do

R = PW (81.26), UW (87.56);     S = LW (69.98)

 

Short term: recovery

On a daily basis, UD / LD spread is not minimal. Our moving averages; stochastic and MACD are up with a bullish no-crossover. As long as MD proves to be a support, the rise in progress will continue.

Idea: use our daily MACD as a leading indicator

Bet: nothing to do

R =PW (81.26);          S = MD (75.32), LD (70.89)

 

Conclusion: without clear trend

 

Formations ATDMF, renseignements : atdmfcahen@yahoo.fr

 

€-Bund: higher

Long term: bullish

On a quarterly basis, Bollinger bands spread is increasing. Our 7 / 23 quarters moving averages are up. Our stochastic and MACD will continue to rise.

On a monthly basis, as long as our MACD is not overbought, the rise in progress will continue or amplify.

Idea: higher for some periods on a quarterly basis.

Bet:  above 130

R= 130, +, ++;    S= MM (123.04)

           

Medium term: bullish parallel pattern

On a weekly basis (continuous contract), a bullish parallel pattern is in progress.

Idea:  use bullish parallel rules

Bet: a new parallel qualification is in progress

R = 130, +, ++ ;   S = PW (126.59)

 

Short term: neutral

On a daily basis Bollinger bands spread is minimal. With the weekly trend, LD should act as a support. Above MD, UD is our next objective.

Bet: higher in July

R = UD (129.75)   S = LD (127.59)

Conclusion: very bullish if UD fails as a resistance

 

Effondrement de l’€

 

Techniquement, un effondrement de l’€ contre la majorité des devises est attendu au début du second semestre.

Les techniques utilisées par l’ATDMF permettent de se positionner sur les couples de devises qui présentent les potentiels de fluctuations les plus significatifs. Les arbitrages se font avec le même niveau de sécurité aussi bien sur une durée de quelques minutes que sur quelques semaines / mois.

 

Renseignements sur nos formations atdmfcahen@yahoo.fr

€ / jpy: a collapse will develop soon

Long term:  lower than Historical low?

On a yearly basis, Bollinger bands are shrinking and the spread is minimal. A bearish no-crossover is the status for our 7 / 23 years moving averages. Our stochastic will be overbought (next period, same pattern for our MACD?) The decline in progress should continue for some periods. Below 89.59 (Historical Low), a long tem collapse is not ruled out.

On a quarterly basis, Bollinger bands spread is not minimal but expend strongly. A soft bearish no-crossover is in progress with our stochastic and MACD. As long as our MACD is not oversold, the decline will continue.

On a monthly basis, Bollinger bands spread is not minimal but increase. For our 7 / 23 months moving averages, a bearish no-crossover is in progress. As long as our MACD is not oversold, the decline will continue.

Idea: below 89.5 a collapse, on a long term basis will develop.

Bet: yearly stochastic and MACD will be overbought in early 2011…

R = PM (129.95);     S = 100, 89.59 (Historical low), – – -.

 

Medium term: bearish  

 On a weekly basis, Bollinger bands spread is expending. The status for our 7 / 23 weeks moving averages is a bearish no-crossover. As long as our MACD is not oversold, the decline in progress will continue.

Idea: bearish no-crossover for our MACD

Bet :in July, opportunity to be short on a daily basis

R = UD (113.68);           S = 100

 

Short term: flat

On a daily basis, Bollinger bands spread is minimal. Next month, a bearish pattern could / will develop.

Idea: very bearish with a weekly bearish no-crossover for our MACD

Bet: collapse below LD

R = UD (113.68);   S = LD (109.24)

 

Conclusion: lower on a medium / long term basis

 

Les cours de l’or peuvent-ils monter / baisser rapidement ?

 

 

Si vous n’avez pas de réponse précise il devient urgent de suivre une formation ATDMF si vous souhaitez réaliser des plus-values significatives.

L’ATDMF montre que l’or est le support à privilégier en 2010 pour profiter des variations de cours avec un niveau de risque moindre que celui attendu sur le Forex ou sur les actions.

La liquidité du marché permet aussi bien de réaliser des opérations en intraday que sur de nombreux mois.

 

 

Renseignements : atdmfcahen@yahoo.fr

€-Bund contract: technical correction in progress

Long term: bullish

On a quarterly basis, the trend for Bollinger bands spread is increasing. Our 7 / 23 quarters moving averages are up. Our stochastic and MACD will continue to rise.

On a monthly basis, as long as our MACD is not overbought, the rise in progress will continue or amplify.

Idea: higher for some periods on a quarterly basis.

Bet:  above 130

R= 130, +, ++;    S= MM (123.04)

           

Medium term: bullish parallel pattern

On a weekly basis (continuous contract), a bullish parallel pattern is in progress.

Idea:  use bullish parallel rules

Bet: a new parallel qualification will develop next week

R = 130, +, ++ ;   S = PW (125.94)

 

Short term: neutral

On a daily basis Bollinger bands spread is minimal. With the weekly trend, LD should act as a support. Above MD, UD is our next objective.

Bet:

R = MD (128.82), UD / PD (129.73)   S = LD (128.02)

Conclusion: very bullish if UD fails as a resistance

 

€ / CHF: weak

Long term: collapse in progress

 On a yearly basis, UY / LY spread is minimal. A bearish no-crossover is in progress for some periods with our 7 / 23 years moving averages. Our stochastic is overbought and the same status is expected for our MACD.

 On a quarterly basis, Bollinger Bands spread is expending dramatically. The trend for our stochastic, MACD and 7 / 23 quarters moving averages is bearish. As long as our MACD is not oversold, the decline in progress will continue or expend.

On a monthly basis, the trend for our stochastic, MACD and 7 / 23 quarters moving averages is bearish. As long as our MACD is not oversold, the decline in progress will continue or expend.

Idea: lower and lower until 2011 or +

Bet: yearly MACD will be overbought in early 2011

R = MM (1.4889);     S =  -, –, —

 

Medium term: bearish parallel pattern

On a weekly basis, a bearish parallel pattern is in progress.

Idea: use bearish parallel rules. 

Bet: lower

R = MW (1.435);    S = -

 

Short term: bearish no-crossover with PD

On a daily basis, Bollinger bands spread was maximal but continue to increase. PD acted as a resistance. This morning, a new low have been done. A new bear trend could develop with an overbought status for our MACD.

Idea: lower

Bet: below 1.35

R = PD (1.4041);     S= 1.35, -

 

Conclusion: towards 1.35 and 1.3 and 1?