Archives mensuelles : septembre 2012

€ / $: new trend for medium term?

Long term: weak

On a yearly basis, Bollinger bands spread will stay flat. TAM tools are without NEI / PEI.

On a quarterly basis, Bollinger bands spread is expending. A PEI is in progress for each TAM tool. More declines are ahead.

On a monthly basis, the UM / LM spread is above a reference one.

Idea: Monthly MACD is our leading indicator

Bet: a PEI could develop for our monthly MACD.

R= MM (1.3741);    S= 1.1877 (2010 low), 1.164 (2005 low)

Medium term: recovery is over

On a weekly basis, Bollinger spread is above a reference one. No PEI is in progress.

Idea: towards MW

Bet: towards LW if MW fails as a support (overbought status for our MACD)

R = UW (1.3025);     S = MW (1.2546), LW (1.2064).

Short term: type I in progress

On a daily basis, a parallel pattern is in progress.

Idea: use bullish parallel rules

Bet: close long position below MD.

R = UD (1.3223);        S = MD (1.2833), LD (1.2443).

Conclusion: as long as MD proves to be a support, the rise in progress will continue.

Gold: technical correction?

Long term: higher

On a yearly basis: a type II will be the status at the end of the period. Next year, LY should continue to decline (9 periods). Expect to use Dow Jones 1980 / 2000 bull trend as a benchmark.

On a quarterly basis, a bullish parallel pattern is in progress.

On a monthly basis, the bullish parallel pattern is over since May 2012.

Idea: use the monthly MACD as a leading indicator

Bet:  a technical correction is not ruled out for some months.

R= UM (1827.4);    S= MM (1619.1), PQ (1474.8)

Medium term: rise

On a weekly basis, UW / LW spread is increasing with a NEI on the monthly time frame.

Idea: use our weekly MACD as a leading indicator

Bet: stochastic status will give the next trend.

R= UM (1827.4);   S= MW (1632.9)

Short term: bullish parallels

On a daily basis, a type III (31/08) is in progress.

Idea:  since yesterday, you have only 50 % of your previous long position

Bet:  focus on MD (main support).

R= UD (1780.3);   S= MD (1729.4), LD (1651.3)

Conclusion: higher as long as MD proves to be a support.

S & P 500:last day to add a long position

Long term basis: towards UY

On a yearly basis, UY could rise at the close. PY failed as a resistance. Stochastic could be oversold at the end of the period. Our moving averages could continue to rise. UY is our main target.

On a quarterly basis, Bollinger bands spread is maximal but shrinking. A bullish no-crossover is in progress with our stochastic and our MACD. UQ is our maximal target.

On a monthly basis, a bullish no-crossover is the status for TAM tools. UM / LM spread is expending.

Idea: monthly MACD as a leading indicator

Bet: yearly MACD will be oversold next period.

R = UY (1658), +++;    S = MM (1314)

Medium term: Type II in progress

On a weekly basis, a type II occurred in T3. It’s the most bullish pattern that you can imagine.

Idea: add long position this week

Bet: LW trend will amplify its decline.

R = UY (1658);    S= MW (1369)

Short term: PEI for our moving averages

On a daily basis; Bollinger bands spread expended until T9. Long are in commands.

Idea: a powerful move should develop

Bet: PEI for our MACD.

R= +++;                       S= MD (1429)

Conclusion: see Medium term analysis

WTI: a new trend? (short term basis)

Long term: weak

On a quarterly basis, MACD is our leading indicator.

On a monthly basis, UM / LM spread is flat. As long as our MACD is not oversold the decline could continue or amplify.

Idea: nothing to do

Bet: LM is a strong support.

R= UW (101.23);   S= MW (90.52)

Medium term: technical recovery

On a weekly basis, stochastic and MACD are oversold. M23 trend is down.

Idea: UW is our main resistance

Bet: nothing to do.

R = UW (101.23);     S = MW (90.52).

Short term: rise?

On a daily basis, the status for our moving averages is a bullish no-crossover. Our stochastic is overbought.

Idea: use our MACD as a leading indicator

Bet: a bearish T2 this week?

R = UD (98.33);    S= MD (96.43), LD (94.54).

Nos analyses S&P 500, Nasdaq 100 et CAC 40 du 7/9

Elles sont disponibles pour les personnes qui en font la demande.

Celles du 14 septembre sont disponibles après règlement sur mon compte Paypal.

Les personnes qui s’inscrivent à nos prochaines formations recevront gratuitement ces analyses. Elles seront commentées lors d’une conversation téléphonique personnalisée.

Renseignements : atdmfcahen@yahoo.fr

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Pour s’abonner : avoir suivi une formation ATDMF 2011.

Renseignements : atdmfcahen@yahoo.fr

S&P 500: warning below MD

Long term basis: very bullish above PY

On a yearly basis, UY could rise at the close. Stochastic could be oversold at the end of the period. Our moving averages could continue to rise. Above PY, UY is our main target. As long as PY proves to be a resistance, a pseudo type III could develop. With this hypothesis, MY is our first objective.

On a quarterly basis, LQ / UQ spread is maximal but shrinking. A bullish no-crossover is in progress with our stochastic and our MACD. UQ is our maximal target.

On a monthly basis, a bullish no-crossover is the status for TAM tools.

Idea: monthly MACD as a leading indicator

Bet: above PY.

R = PY (1471), UY (1655);    S = MM (1312.8)

Medium term: T2 next week?

On a weekly basis, Bollinger bands are diverging and UW / LW spread is a reference one. A T2 could develop next week.

Idea: add long with a T2

Bet: LW trend will amplify its decline.

R = PY (1471);    S= MW (1362.4)

Short term: rise but not bullish

On a daily basis; no PEI is in progress for TAM tools.

Idea: with a weekly T2 next week, UY could be a short term target

Bet: bearish warning below MD at the close.

R= 1413 (above yesterday high);                       S= MD (1408.8), LD (1397.2)

Conclusion: higher as long as our weekly stochastic is not overbought. Below MD:  blood, blood and blood.