Archives mensuelles : janvier 2012

Gold: UW (1787) = strong resistance

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Yearly trend: in 2012 /2013, qualification in a new bullish parallel pattern

On a yearly basis, a bullish parallel pattern is in progress with a strong dynamic for LY. A type II is expected at the end of 2013. On a global Historical basis, one of the most bullish pattern ever seen (since the end of XIX century).

Idea: focus on LY trend

Bet: S&P 500 rise in the 1986 / 2000 as a benchmark.

Long term: bullish parallel on a quarterly basis

On a quarterly basis, the pattern is a bullish parallel one. A type I could develop at the end of March 2012. The dynamic for our 7 / 23 quarters moving averages is strong and continue thru 2013.

On a monthly basis, a bullish parallel pattern is in progress.

Idea: focus on MM.

Bet: towards 5 000 or above as long as no NEI will develop on a monthly basis.

R = rise > 2 years, +++ (could be above 5 000);    S = MM (1478.4), MQ (1122.8)

Medium term: technical recovery

On a weekly basis, UW / LW spread is shrinking. No PEI is in progress.

Idea: focus on PW trend

Bet: UW is our main objective.

R= UW (1787.5);   S = MW (1675.8), LW (1564.1)

Short term: higher

On a daily basis, no PEI is in progress on TAM tools. A NEI is in progress on the weekly time frame.

Idea: rise as long as our MACD is not overbought

Bet: towards UW.

R = UW (1787.5);   S = MD (1661.3).

Conclusion: bullish on a long term basis.

USD / JPY: technical recovery

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Long term: lower

On a yearly basis, Bollinger band spread is increasing. A PEI is in progress with our moving averages.

On a quarterly basis, a type I could develop.

On a monthly basis, a bearish parallel pattern is in progress.

Idea: use monthly bearish parallels rules

Bet: towards LM.

R= MM (81.3);    S= LM (74.48)

Medium term: Bollinger bands spread is minimal

On a weekly basis, a bullish no-crossover is the status for our moving averages and our MACD. A NEI is in progress with our monthly time frame.

Idea: rise as long as our MACD is not overbought.

Bet: towards MM is not ruled out.

R = UW (78.19), MM (81.3);     S = MW (77.17)

Short term: higher

On a daily basis; without a PEI, no bullish pattern could develop this week.

Idea: rise as long as our MACD is not overbought

Bet: nothing to do on a daily basis.

R = UW (78.19);   S = MD (77.04)

Conclusion: technical recovery in progress.

CAC 40: towards 3411 or above!!!

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Long term basis: lower

On a yearly basis, stochastic and MACD could continue to be overbought for two periods or more.

On a quarterly basis, LQ / UQ spread is maximal. A PEI is the status for our moving averages. Our stochastic could be oversold next period.

On a monthly basis, TAM tools will continue to decline. Bollinger bands spread continue to increase.

Idea: lower as long as monthly MACD is not oversold

Bet: easy to do a mistake.

R = MM (3610);    S = PQ (2565), 2003 low / LQ (2244), LY (1313)

Medium term: rise

On a weekly basis, Bollinger bands spread is a reference one. A bullish no-crossover is the status for our stochastic and MACD. A type A is in progress and the status for the monthly time frame is a NEI.

Idea: only technical recovery as long as MM proves to be a resistance

Bet: rise as long as our MACD is not overbought.

R = 3411, MM (3610);               S= MW (3085).

Short term: bullish pre-parallel

On a daily basis, a bullish pre-parallel pattern occurred (17/1).

Idea: use bullish parallel rules

Bet: bullish as long as MD= support.

R = 3411;     S= MD (3178)

Conclusion: bullish as long as MD = support.

€-Bund contract: higher???

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Long term: higher

On a quarterly basis, our moving averages are up. Stochastic and MACD are oversold. As long as the status for our stochastic is not overbought, the bull trend in progress could continue.

On a monthly basis, TAM tools are up as PM. A PEI is in progress for our monthly stochastic.  As long as the status for our stochastic and MACD is not a bearish divergence, the bull trend in progress could continue.

Idea: higher

Bet:  rise as long as our monthly MACD is not overbought.

R=  +;    S= MW (136.9)

Medium term: bullish T2

On a weekly basis, UW / LW spread is a reference one. UW / LW spread is increasing. A bullish no-crossover is the status for our moving averages.

Idea: use bullish parallel rules

Bet: +++

R = +++;   S = MW (136.9)

Short term: higher

On a daily basis, Bollinger bands spread is not minimal. A weak PEI is in progress with our moving averages.

Idea: higher.

Bet: PEI for our stochastic and MACD.

R = +;   S = MD (138.65)

Conclusion: higher and higher.

Formations ATDMF 2012

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Formations ATDMF 2012

Pour débutant : durée 3 jours (semaine ou à cheval sur un week-end)  vous repartez opérationnel pour effectuer des opérations d’une durée supérieure à une semaine sur tous les marchés.

1ou 2 participants.

Confirmés : durée 3 ou 5 jours pour savoir opérer en intraday sur une durée comprise entre 10 secondes et 2 heures (devises, matières premières, taux, indices, titres US).

1 seul participant.

Renseignements : atdmfcahen@yahoo.fr

Crude oil: strong next month

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Long term: towards UM or above

On a quarterly basis, a bullish no-crossover is in progress with TAM tools.

On a monthly basis, our MACD is not yet oversold.

Idea: very bullish when PM fails as a resistance

Bet: towards UM or above.

R= UM (110.98), UQ (121.96);   S= MM (90.42)

Medium term: rise

On a weekly basis, a   bullish pre-parallel pattern could develop.

Idea: UW is our first target

Bet: MW / PW could be a support.

R = UW (107.18);     S = PW (91.6)

Short term: without trend

On a daily basis; UD / LD spread is a reference one. TAM tools are without PEI.

Idea: nothing to do

Bet: wait for one / two weeks.

R = UD (104.64);    S= LD = (94.63).

Conclusion: nothing to do this week.

S&P 500: rise as long as MD = support

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Long term basis: toppish

On a yearly basis, Bollinger bands spread is shrinking slowly. Stochastic and MACD are not oversold.  As long as PY proves to be a resistance, MY could be an objective.

On a quarterly basis, LQ / UQ spread is maximal. A bullish no-crossover is in progress with our stochastic and our MACD. UQ is our next target if 1370 (current high) fails as a resistance.

On a monthly basis, Bollinger bands spread is a reference one. The status for our stochastic and MACD could be a bearish no-crossover.

Idea: towards LM if MM fails as a support

Bet: none.

R = PM (1331.7), UM (1399);    S = MM (1223), LM (1047)

Medium term: rise

On a weekly basis, a PEI is in progress for each TAM tool. UW / LW spread is above a reference one.

Idea: UW = resistance and MW = support

Bet: none.

R = UW (1305);    S= MW (1218)

Short term: rise

On a daily basis, UD / LD spread is above a reference one. A PEI is the status for each TAM tool. A bullish trend without T2 could develop.

Idea: a bullish pre-parallel pattern is not ruled out

Bet: higher.

R = PM (1331);                   S=MD (1257)

Conclusion:  rise as long as MD = support.

€ /$: could dive

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Long term: flat

On a yearly basis, Bollinger bands spread is not minimal. Our 7 / 23 years moving averages are slightly bullish. Stochastic is overbought. UY is our main resistance and MY is our first support.

On a quarterly basis, Bollinger bands spread is a reference one. A bearish no-crossover is the status for our MACD. LQ is our first objective.

On a monthly basis, the UM / LM spread is above a reference one. TAM tools will continue to decline. LM is our first target.

Idea: lower

Bet: towards LM.

R= MM (1.3596);    S= LM (1.2337), MY (1.2132)

Medium term: lower but not bearish

On a weekly basis, a PEI is in progress with our moving averages.

Idea: a PEI could develop with our stochastic and MACD

Bet: lower as long as our MACD is not oversold.

R = MW (1.3495);     S = LM (1.2337)

Short term: bearish parallels pattern

On a daily basis, a type III is in progress.

Idea: use bearish parallels rules.

Bet: € could dive.

R = MD (1.2954);   S = 1.2666 (current low), LM (1.2337)

Conclusion: lower.

Gold: weak

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Yearly trend: in 2012 /2013, qualification in a new bullish parallel pattern

On a yearly basis, a bullish parallel pattern is in progress with a strong dynamic for LY. A type II is expected at the end of the current period. On a global Historical basis, one of the most bullish pattern ever seen (since the end of XIX century).

Idea: focus on LY trend

Bet: S&P 500 rise in the 1986 / 2000 as a benchmark.

Long term: bullish parallel on a quarterly basis

On a quarterly basis, the pattern is a bullish parallel one. A type I could develop. The dynamic for our 7 / 23 quarters moving averages is strong and continue thru 2013.

On a monthly basis, a bullish parallel pattern is in progress.

Idea: focus on MM.

Bet: towards 5 000 or above as long as no NEI will develop on a monthly basis.

R = rise > 2 years, +++ (could be above 5 000);    S = MM (1474.6), MQ (1118)

Medium term: weak

On a weekly basis, a PEI is the status for MACD.

Idea: focus on PW trend

Bet: nothing to do.

R= MW (1695), PW (1733);   S = 1522.66 (Current low)

Short term: trading range

On a daily basis, Bollinger bands spread is minimal. No PEI could develop with TAM tools.

Idea: UD = resistance

Bet: technical recovery.

R = UD (1636)               S = MD (1596), LD (1555).

Conclusion: weak for some weeks.