Archives mensuelles : janvier 2009

Edito 25/01/09 : Performances de l’ATDMF

 

Vous auriez souhaité profiter de la hausse de la volatilité et des mouvements violents sur les différents marchés (sur les bancaires entre autres) depuis octobre dernier  pour faire des plus-values exceptionnelles? Il suffisait de lire nos publications :

http://atdmfcahen.over-blog.com/articles-blog.html

et de continuer en lisant ce site qui a pris le relais.

Vous pouvez comparer ce que nous écrivions avec les conseils que vous avez suivi.

La différence tient principalement dans la prise en compte de deux facteurs : avec l’ATDMF, nous considérons que les indicateurs techniques ne représentent que 40 % du poids de la décision (en admettant que ces indicateurs soient utilisés correctement). Les  60 % qui restent, concernent l’analyse de la volatilité.

Rappelons que nous indiquons, depuis de nombreuses années, que le comportement des marchés évolue. Les indicateurs utilisés doivent donc pouvoir s’adapter (indicateurs ouverts).

Pour les semaines et mois  (années ?) à venir la situation observée depuis début 2008 va se pérenniser.  Faites comme de nombreux professionnels (gestionnaires, traders),  français et étrangers (12 nationalités différentes) profitez des formations ATDMF pour mettre à profit les opportunités de plus-values. Les particuliers sont les bienvenus et peuvent suivre nos formations avec profits car aucune connaissance mathématique n’est requise.

Renseignements dans notre rubrique formations et à :

atdmfcahen@yahoo.fr

Edito 23/01 : le S&P 500 pourrait s’effondrer durablement comme les autres indices mondiaux.

 

Si le signal d’amplification de la baisse se confirme la semaine prochaine sur le graphique quotidien, la configuration du graphique mensuel sera particulièrement baissière pour le mois prochains et ceux qui suivent. Ceci permettra au graphique trimestriel de confirmer les observations faites sur le graphique annuel : le franchissement du point bas de 2008 (741) permettrait au marché d’atteindre d’ici 2014 une zone estimée entre 200 et 300.

S&P 500: baisse jusqu’en 2014???

Long term basis: Yearly bearish divergence with our stochastic and MACD => 500 as a first target

On a yearly basis, a bullish parallels pattern was in progress. The status for our MACD is a bearish divergence. Furthermore, our MACD and stochastic are overbought at the same period: a sharp decline is expected. Below 700, the collapse in progress will amplify. 500 and LY (185) are our next supports.

On a quarterly basis, Bollinger bands spread increase. The dynamic for our 7 quarters moving average is strong and will increase for 5 periods or more. A bearish A type crossover is in progress with our 7 / 23 quarters moving averages. Since the end of March 08 a bearish divergence is the status for our MACD. This is the status for our stochastic since December 2007.  The bear move is in progress for 3 quarters at least.

On a monthly basis; a bearish crossover PM / MM + increase of the dynamic for UM. A bearish A type crossover is in progress for our 7 / 23 months moving averages. The bear trend for our moving averages will increase until mid 2009 or +. The status for our stochastic and MACD is a bearish non-crossover. A bearish parallel pattern is in progress for some months (4 to 15?). Below 700, 500 and LY (114) are our next targets. 

Idea: use bearish parallels rules.

R = MW (952); S = 700, LW (688), 500, -

 

Medium term: decline as long as MW (952) = resistance

On a weekly basis, Bollinger bands spread is far away from its minimal level. Stochastic and MACD are not yet overbought. Next pattern for our 7 / 23 weeks moving averages could be a bearish non-crossover. Next objective is PW (745) and LW (688).

Idea: with a bearish non-crossover as a status for our 7 / 23 moving averages, a new bear trend will develop.

R = MW (952);    S=  PW (745), 700, LW (688)

 

Short term: decline without bearish ATDMF pattern

On a daily basis, Bollinger bands spread is minimal and UD / LD spread is extending. A bearish A type crossover is the status for our 7 / 23 days moving averages. Our stochastic and MACD are not oversold. Without a bear trend for the weekly time frame, the decline in progress is not yet a bear trend. With a bearish crossover PD / MD + divergence for UD and LD => a bearish parallel pattern will be the status for our Bollinger bands.

Idea: towards LW with a bearish non-crossover for stochastic / MACD. With parallel, use parallel rules.

R = MD (878);    S= PW (745), LW (688)

.

Conclusion: monthly bearish parallel pattern in progress for some months. 

 

Edito 22/01- Contrats de taux : correction technique ?

 

Sur la majorité des contrats la progression des cours s’essouffle sur une base quotidienne et hebdomadaire. Si un mouvement de baisse intervient, il ne peut s’agir que d’une correction technique. Ceci présage-t-il un mouvement inverse sur les indices boursiers ou un manque de visibilité concernant la politique des Banques Centrales ?

Contrat Eurobund : correction technique ?

 

Long term: bullish

On a yearly basis, Bollinger bands are up. The status for our 7 / 23 years moving averages is a bullish non-crossover. Our stochastic and MACD are oversold. Prices will move higher.

On a quarterly basis; a bullish non-crossover is the status for our stochastic and MACD.  A bullish T 2 is expected.

On a monthly basis, a bullish non-crossover is the status for our 7 / 23 moving averages. Pattern with our Bollinger bands is a bullish parallel one.

 Idea: bearish divergence for our monthly stochastic (after the 1st of February)…

R = above Historic High;    S = LD (123.98)

 

Medium term: bullish parallel pattern

On a weekly basis, a bullish parallel pattern is in progress.

Idea: use parallel rules.

R = +;      S = T1 (121.8)

 

Short term: flat

On a daily basis, Bollinger bands spread is minimal. UD (128.09) is our main resistance and LD (123.89) is our main support. With a close above UD + dynamic for UD and LD + new high during the next period, a bullish T2 will be in hand and a nice bullish ATDMF pattern will develop. Below LD, a decline will be only a technical move. As long as the MACD is not oversold, this move could continue.

Idea: new bullish parallel pattern soon (fly to quality)

R = UD (128.09), T1, +;          S = LD (123.98), PW (121.28).

 

Conclusion: focus on monthly stochastic.

 

GPB : prendre position ce jour ???

Long term: bearish

On a yearly basis, a bearish T2 is in progress and Historical Low failed as a support.

On a quarterly basis, Bollinger bands are diverging. The status for our 7 / 23 quarters moving averages is a bearish A type crossover. Our stochastic and MACD are overbought for 3 periods or more. On a monthly basis, a bearish parallel pattern is in progress.

Idea: a collapse for some years.

R = MW (154.75);    S =  -

 

Medium term: bearish parallel pattern

On a weekly basis, a bearish parallel pattern is in progress.

Idea: use bearish parallel rules.

R = MW (154.75);    S = LW (109.71).

 

Short term: lower

On a daily basis, UD / LD spread was minimal until Tuesday when a close occurred below LD. Now this spread is increasing. The status for stochastic and MACD is a bearish non-crossover and is an A type crossover for our 7 / 23 days moving averages. A bearish ATDMF pattern could begin today if yesterday low fails as a support.

Idea: daily bearish ATDMF pattern could develop today.

R = 128.85;   S = 123.94, -.

 

Conclusion: daily bearish ATDMF pattern could develop today (21/01/2009).