Archives mensuelles : février 2009

edito 27/02 : Baisse des indices souhaitée

La présence d’une divergence baissière sur les principaux indices américains a scellé le sort des marchés. Plusieurs années de baisse des cours sont inévitables. Ceci n’est pas démenti par les propos des responsables (irresponsables) mondiaux qui reculent de 6 mois en 6 mois la date probable de sortie de la crise. Si vous possédez encore un portefeuille d’actions, il est clair que la bourse n’est pas faite pour vous (à moins que vous souhaitez observer en combien de temps votre capital aura fondu). Si votre portefeuille actions est géré, il faut demander des comptes à votre gestionnaire.

Une baisse des indices US et Européens durant la prochaine semaine sera le signe d’une nouvelle et très violente phase de baisse durant mars.

Si ces événements se produisent, l’ATDMF permettra d’encaisser des gains exceptionnels. Pour le plaisir d’engranger des plus-values, souhaitons observer une baisse des marchés durant les prochains jours.

S&P 500 : divergence baissière (chart annuel) / yearly bearish divergence

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Long term basis: Yearly bearish divergence with our stochastic and MACD => 500 as a first target

On a yearly basis, a bullish parallels pattern was in progress. The status for our MACD is a bearish divergence. Furthermore, our MACD and stochastic are overbought at the same period: a sharp decline is expected. Below 700, the collapse in progress will amplify. 500 and LY (180) are our next supports.

On a quarterly basis, Bollinger bands spread increase. The dynamic for our 7 quarters moving average is strong and will increase for 5 periods or more. A bearish A type crossover is in progress with our 7 / 23 quarters moving averages. Since the end of March 08 a bearish divergence is the status for our MACD. This is the status for our stochastic since December 2007. The bear move is in progress for 3 quarters at least.

On a monthly basis; a bearish crossover PM / MM + increase of the dynamic for UM. A bearish A type crossover is in progress for our 7 / 23 months moving averages. The bear trend for our moving averages will increase until mid 2009 or +. The status for our stochastic and MACD is a bearish non-crossover. A bearish parallel pattern is in progress for some months (4 to 15?). Below 700, 500 and LY (180) are our next targets.

Idea: use monthly bearish parallels rules.

R = MW (813); S = 700, 500, LY (180)

Medium term: decline (collapse?) as long as MW (867) = resistance

On a weekly basis, Bollinger bands spread is not minimal. For our 7 / 23 weeks moving averages a bearish non-crossover is in progress. With an overbought status for our MACD (next Monday?), a collapse could develop.

Idea: with a new low below 740, 700 is next door (and 500 could be a target for the end of Q1).

R = MW (867); S= 740, 700, 500

Short term: bearish without bearish ATDMF pattern

On a daily basis, Bollinger bands pattern is like a bearish parallel one (volatility was not minimal when a pseudo-T1 occurred. The bear trend for our 7 / 23 days moving averages will continue. The status for our stochastic is a bearish non-crossover. With a new low today, it will be the same status for our MACD.

Idea: with a bearish non-crossover as a status for our MACD, a collapse will develop.

R = MD (813); S= 740, 700, 500

Conclusion: monthly bearish parallel pattern in progress for some months.

Edito 26/02 : Nos moyennes mobiles 7 / 23…

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L’analyse des moyennes mobiles 7 / 23 sur le CAC 40, aujourd’hui, va être riche d’enseignements.

Une baisse de l’indice permettra d’envisager, avec une bonne probabilité, le renforcement de la tendance sur les moyennes du graphique hebdomadaire. Ce signal ATDMF indiquera que le niveau 2400 est à portée de main rapidement. Ceci signifie également que les prévisions à long terme sur le CAC 40 vont devoir mentionner un objectif au-dessous de 1000 (mille).

Selon cette hypothèse, tous les opérateurs seront à la fête (opérateurs sur FCE, put warrants, vendeurs à découvert). Une bonne connaissance des techniques ATDMF vous permettra de savoir pourquoi et comment faire des plus-values considérables. De nombreux opérateurs (particuliers et professionnels) en profitent tous les jours. Renseignements sur nos formations sur le site ou en envoyant un mail à atdmfcahen@yahoo.fr

10 Y T-Note contract : lower

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Long term: not so bullish

On a yearly basis, Bollinger bands are up. The status for our 7 / 23 years moving averages is a bullish non-crossover. Our stochastic and MACD are oversold. With a new high this year, the bull trend will continue.

On a quarterly basis; a bullish non-crossover is the status for our stochastic and MACD but a bearish divergence could develop with our stochastic.

On a monthly basis, a bullish non-crossover is the status for our 7 / 23 moving averages. Pattern with our Bollinger bands is a bullish parallel one. Below MW (121.41), a bearish divergence will be in progress for our stochastic.

Idea: see medium term analysis for MW.

R = 128.70 (Historic High); S = MW (121.41), MM (115.31)

Medium term: below MW?

On a weekly basis, a bullish parallel pattern is in progress. PW failed as a support and our 7 weeks moving average is down. A bearish non-crossover is the status for our stochastic. Below MW (121.41), next target will be LW (112.43).

Idea: below MW, a bearish divergence will be the status for our stochastic on a monthly and quarterly basis.

R = PW (128.12); S = T1 (121.8), MW (121.41)

Short term: flat / lower

On a daily basis, Bollinger bands spread is minimal. Our 7 / 23 days moving averages are down. LD (121.82) is our main objective. With an overbought status for our stochastic and MACD, a decline is expected (without a bearish ATDMF pattern).

Idea: below 121.29

R = MD (122.94), UD (124.24); S = 121.29, –

Conclusion: focus on MW.

GPB / JPY : baisse du Yen

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Long term: bearish

On a yearly basis, a bearish trend is in progress and Historical Low failed as a support.

On a quarterly basis, Bollinger bands are diverging. The status for our 7 / 23 quarters moving averages is a bearish A type crossover. Our stochastic and MACD are overbought for 3 periods or more. On a monthly basis, a bearish parallel pattern is in progress.

Idea: always bearish as long as UW (164.23) = resistance

R = UW (164.23); S = LW (117.14)

Medium term: bearish parallel pattern is over

On a weekly basis, UW / LW spread is maximal. With a weekly close above MW (140.68), UW (164.23) is our next objective..

Idea: technical recovery in progress.

R = MW (140.68), UW (164.23); S = LW (117.14).

Short term: higher

On a daily basis, LD is flat. A bullish non-crossover is in progress with our 7 / 23 days moving averages and with our MACD. As long as our MACD is not overbought, the rise will continue. UW (164.23) could be an objective.

Idea: rise but not bullish.

R = MW (140.68), UW (164.23); S = MD (132.43)

Conclusion: towards UW (164.23)

Or : 1018.8 = resistance

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Yearly trend: bullish for more than 2 years.

On a yearly basis, a bullish parallel pattern is in progress. The dynamic for each band is very strong. PY will cross MY in more than two periods.

Idea: bullish non-crossover for our stochastic.

Long term: above PQ (1018.8)?

On a quarterly basis, the pattern is a bullish parallel one. The dynamic for our 7 / 23 quarters moving averages is bullish. Next quarters, – 8 prices will increase. Without an increase for next prices, a bullish non-crossover could develop between our 7 / 23 quarters moving averages. The status in progress for our stochastic could be a bearish divergence. Above PQ (1018.8), a new bull trend could develop with a bullish non-crossover for our MACD and a strong bull trend for our 7 / 23 quarters moving averages. On a monthly basis, Bollinger bands spread is wide. A bullish non-crossover for our 7 / 23 months moving averages could / will develop next month (see -8 prices). UM (1015) is our next objective. MW (840.7) is a strong support.

Idea: with an oversold status for our stochastic (early March) a long term rise could develop.

R = PQ (1018.8), 1032.8, +; S = MM (839) / MW (840.7)

Medium term: recovery / rise

On a weekly basis, Bollinger bands spread is not minimal but UW / LW spread is expending. Now, the status for our 7 / 23 weeks moving averages is a bullish A type crossover. In last November a bullish non-crossover occurred with our stochastic and MACD. As long as our MACD is not overbought, the rise in progress will continue.

Idea: higher with an increase of our volatility.

R = PQ (1018.8); S = MW (840.7)

Short term: higher

On a daily basis, Bollinger bands spread is not minimal (MD is up). With our 7 / 23 days moving averages a bullish non-crossover is in progress. As long as our MACD is not overbought, the rise in progress will continue.

Idea: not bullish with LD which is flat.

R = PQ (1018.8); S = MD (938.5)

Conclusion: rise above PQ (1018.8).

Et si le vendredi 29/10/1929 n’était pas si noir.

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Les indices boursiers sont en position de s’effondrer. Tous les indices occidentaux évoluent en phase avec une petite avance pour le CAC 40. Le franchissement du point bas du 17 Novembre dernier sur le S&P 500 confirmera qu’un mouvement de baisse gigantesque est en cours. Il y a une trentaine d’année, je travaillais sur les cycles séculaires à l’aide de la méthode d’Elliott. J’avais fixé le début de la correction de la hausse ayant pour origine 1903 / 1907 aux années 2010. Durée minimale de la correction 35 ans.

L’ATDMF ne permet pas une telle anticipation (qui n’a aucun intérêt pour les opérateurs). Cependant, L’ATDMF pourrait confirmer fin mars 2009 que la baisse en cours depuis 2007 sera d’une puissance et d’une durée sans aucune comparaison possible avec les mouvements de baisse observés depuis le début des années 50.

Si un tel mouvement se confirme, les opérateurs positionnés à la baisse vont pouvoir réaliser des profits gigantesques. Accessoirement faire le tri entre ATDMF et analyse fondamentale et ATDMF et analyse technique traditionnelle.

S&P 500 : vers 182 / towards 182

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Long term basis: Yearly bearish divergence with our stochastic and MACD => 500 as a first target

On a yearly basis, a bullish parallels pattern was in progress. The status for our stochastic and MACD is a bearish divergence. Furthermore, our MACD and stochastic are overbought at the same period: a sharp decline is expected. The yearly bullish trend is over. Below 700, the collapse in progress will amplify. 500 and LY (182) are our next supports.

On a monthly basis; a bearish crossover PM / MM + increase of the dynamic for UM. A bearish A type crossover is in progress for our 7 / 23 months moving averages. The bear trend for our moving averages will increase until mid 2010 or +. The status for our stochastic and MACD is a bearish non-crossover. A bearish parallel pattern is in progress for some months (4 to 15?). Below 700, 500 and LY (182) are our next targets.

Idea: more and more bearish as long as our monthly stochastic is not oversold (end of the yearly bear trend with this pattern on a quarterly basis).

R = MW (677), UW (967); S = 700, 500, LY (182)

Medium term: Main collapse below PW (760.51)

On a weekly basis, Bollinger bands spread is not at its minimal level. Our MACD could be overbought next week. Current pattern for our 7 / 23 weeks moving averages is a bearish non-crossover (see our previous analysis). Our next objective is PW (760.51). Below 741 (21/11/2009 low) / 700 the real collapse will begin.

Idea: next week, with a bear trend for LW a new game will be in progress.

R = MW (877), UW (967); S= PW (760.51), 700, 500

Short term: UD / LD spread is not minimal

On a daily basis, Bollinger bands spread is not yet minimal. A slide is expected without a bearish ATDMF pattern. As long as MD (832) proves to be a resistance, a bearish pre-parallel pattern could develop before a bearish parallel pattern. But volatility is expending strongly (see the slope for UD). A collapse is not ruled out. Above MD (832) our long term bear signal could fade away. Above UD (876) a recovery / rise on a weekly basis could develop.

Idea: warning (for a very strong bear move) until the end of February.

R = MD (832), UD (876); S= PW (760.51), —

Conclusion: below 700, LY will not be a dream.

€ / $ : figure ATDMF….

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Long term: monthly bearish non-crossover for our stochastic and MACD

On a yearly basis, Bollinger band spread is not minimal and LY is flat. Within two periods our 7 / 23 moving averages and stochastic will be neutral. MY (1.2039) is our first support.

On a quarterly basis, the trend for our 7 / 23 quarters moving averages is not bearish. Our stochastic and MACD are overbought. Prices will move lower. Below MY (1.2039), LQ (1.1117) could be a target.

On a monthly basis, the UM / LM spread is maximal but a dynamic for each Bollinger band is in progress. A bearish A type crossover is the status for our 7 / 23 months moving averages. The status for our stochastic and MACD is a bearish non-crossover. 1.2330 (current low) is our first objective.

Idea: spread UM / LM will increase with lower prices.

R = MQ (1.3258); S =1.2330, MY (1.2039), LQ (1.1117)

Medium term: lower

On a weekly basis, Bollinger bands spread is maximal. A bearish trend is in progress for our 7 / 23 weeks moving averages. Our stochastic and MACD are overbought. As long as MW (1.3139) proves to be a resistance, a decline towards LW (1.2217) is expected.

Idea: towards LW (1.2217)

R = MW (1.3139); S = LW (1.2217), –

Short term: bearish pattern tomorrow

On a daily basis, UD / LD spread is minimal. UD is up. A bearish non-crossover is the status for our 7 / 23 days moving averages. With a close below LD (1.2669) and a new low tomorrow, LW will be our first objective.

Idea: no bearish ATDMF pattern (no non-crossover on a weekly basis).

R = MD (1.2932); S = LW (1.2217)

Conclusion: below LW (1.2217) before the end of Q1.

Bonjour la volatilité (je suis de retour sur tous les marchés)

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La volatilité semble vouloir s’accroître sur le Forex. Ce signal devrait se confirmer dans la journée et se communiquer aux indices boursiers.

Nous répétons inlassablement qu’un mouvement violent sur les cours (à la hausse ou à la baisse) ne peut se produire qu’à l’aide d’une hausse de la volatilité (principe N° 1 de l’ATDMF).

Les vacances, pour les traders et opérateurs à plus long terme, sont terminées. Une journée (semaine, mois) passionnante va débuter.

Même l’or devrait faire un petit effort pour rejoindre les 1 000 $.

Participez à nos formations et anticipez l’Evénement.

Contact : atdmfcahen@yahoo.fr