La pression sur le USD est sensible en ce début de matinée. Ceci signifie que les opérateurs qui travaillent en orient sont restés short d’USD avant de terminer leur journée. Nul doute que le mouvement pourrait se poursuivre tout le long de la journée en Europe et aux USA.
L’USD / CHF devrait être le couple le plus prometteur.
A noter que toutes les personnes qui suivent notre formation de base sur les devises sont, à la fin de ce stage, en mesure de faire cette analyse et de mettre en pratique les prévisions faites.
USD / CHF
Le texte suivant est traduisible à l’aide de Babelfish de Yahoo.
Long term: quarterly bearish T2 in progress
On a yearly basis, our indicators are bearish. LY (1.056) is only our first support.
On a quarterly basis, a bearish non-crossover is in progress with our 7 – 23 quarters moving averages. Our stochastic and our MACD are overbought. A bearish T2 occurred (no divergence for UQ but we don’t short this market on a quarterly basis).
On a monthly basis, the spread UM – LM was minimal and increasing when a close occurred below LM. The status for our stochastic and MACD is a bearish non-crossover. With our 7 – 23 months moving averages, the dynamic of the bear trend is strong. PM crossed MM + a strong divergence between UM and LM. The pattern is a bearish Australian one. As long as MM (1.1974) acts as a resistance, the main trend will be bearish.
Idea: lower for some months
Medium term: bearish
On a weekly basis, the pattern with Bollinger bands is like a bearish pre-parallels one (since early September 07). As long as MW (1.1202) acts as a resistance, the bear trend will continue.
Idea: with our 7 weeks moving average trend, LW (1.0666) will be a weak support.
Short term: bearish ATDMF 2007 pattern
On a daily basis; with a new low today (below 1.0698), a bearish ATDMF pattern will develop.
Idea: short below 1.0698.
Conclusion: towards MD (1.0938) if 1.0698 acts as a support.