Archives pour la catégorie $ / CHF

$ / CHF: lower for some years

Long term: bearish on a long term basis

On a yearly basis, Bollinger bands are expending. A PEI is in progress with our moving averages and with our stochastic.

On a quarterly basis a bearish parallel pattern is in progress.

On a monthly basis, UM / LM spread is expending. A PEI is in progress with our moving averages and with our stochastic.

Idea: use quarterly bearish parallel rules

Bet: a monthly type II will develop

R = MM (1.0057); S = – – -

Medium term: bearish parallel pattern

On a weekly basis, a bearish parallel pattern is in progress.

Idea: use bearish parallel rules

Bet:

R = MW (.9289) S = – – -

Short term: bearish parallel

On a daily basis, a type I is in progress.

Idea: use bearish parallel rules

Bet: lower

R = MD (.8869); S = -

Conclusion: lower for some years.

USD / CHF: lower

Long term:  bearish on a long term basis

On a yearly basis, Bollinger bands are expending. A PEI is in progress with our moving averages and with our stochastic.

On a quarterly basis a bearish parallel pattern is in progress.

On a monthly basis, UM / LM spread is expending. A PEI is in progress with our moving averages and with our stochastic.

Idea: use quarterly bearish parallel rules

Bet: lower for some years.

R = MM (1.0156);     S = – – -

 

Medium term: bearish parallel pattern

 On a weekly basis, a bearish parallel pattern is in progress.

Idea: use bearish parallel rules

Bet:

R = MW (.9401)        S = – – -

 

 Short term: flat

 On a daily basis; with an oversold status for our MACD, a recovery could develop. Otherwise a bearish no-crossover will be in hand. With this hypothesis, a collapse is not ruled out.  

Idea: choppy.

Bet: lower

R = MD (.9104);  S = LD ( .8884)

 

Conclusion: lower for some years.

 

USD / CHF = toppish (this week)

Long term: lower

 On a yearly basis, UY / LY spread is increasing slowly. A bearish non-crossover is in progress for some periods with our 7 / 23 years moving averages. Our stochastic and MACD are overbought.

 On a quarterly basis, Bollinger Bands spread is increasing. A bearish no-crossover could develop with our 7 / 23 quarters moving averages.

On a monthly basis, Bollinger bands spread is wide. The status for our stochastic and MACD could be oversold or a bearish no-crossover.

Idea: MM is a strong resistance.

Bet: bearish no-crossover for our monthly stochastic and MACD

R = MM (1.0901);     S = LM (0.9861)

 

Medium term: without trend

On a weekly basis, Bollinger Bands spread was minimal last week and is increasing now. The trend for our monthly basis is not bullish. The pattern for our 7 / 23 weeks moving averages is a bullish B type crossover. The bullish no-crossover with our stochastic and MACD could be over before the end of February.

Idea: technical recovery in progress

Bet: end of the recovery if last week high (1.0643) acts as a resistance this week.

R = 1.0643, MM (1.0901);    S = MW (1.0278)

 

Short term: rise

On a daily basis, UD / LD spread is wide. The status for our 7 / 23 weeks moving averages is a bullish A type crossover. The status for our stochastic and MACD could be overbought. As long as out MACD is not overbought, the rise in progress could continue.

Idea: nothing to do.

R = 1.0643;     S= PD (1.0435), MD (1.0364)

 

Conclusion: recovery as long as MD = support.

 

 

USD / CHF: below Historical low is expected.

Long term: lower

 On a yearly basis, UY / LY spread is increasing slowly. A bearish non-crossover is in progress for some periods with our 7 / 23 years moving averages. Our stochastic and MACD are overbought.

 On a quarterly basis, our 7 / 23 quarters moving averages are bearish and this trend will continue for some periods (bearish non-crossover next year). UQ is up and LQ is down. Historical low is our first objective.

On a monthly basis, Bollinger bands spread is wide. The status for our MACD is overbought. LM is a our first target.

Idea: bearish next year.

R = MM (1.0877);     S = LQ (0.9865), LM (0.9788), 0.9639

 

Medium term: like a bearish parallel pattern

On a weekly basis, UW / LW spread is not minimal but expending. The trend for our 7 / 23 weeks moving averages is bearish. As long as PW act as a resistance, the bear trend could amplify. Above MW, MM is our next resistance.

Idea: lower

R = PW (1.0386), MW (1.0595);    S = LM (0.9789), 0.9639

 

Short term: bearish parallel pattern in progress

On a daily basis, a bearish parallel pattern is in progress. A bearish crossover PD / MD with a dynamic for UD is not ruled out (if a bearish non-crossover develop with our stochastic / MACD).

Idea: add bearish position with a bearish non-crossover develop with our stochastic / MACD.

 

R = MD (1.0265);     S= 1, LM (0.9789), 0.9639

 

Conclusion: towards LM or below.

 

USD / CHF : aucune opportunité sur le moyen terme

Long term: weak

 On a yearly basis, our indicators are always bearish. But yearly close was above LY. Bollinger bands are declining slowly. LY (1.03) is a strong support. At the end of 2009, a bearish non-crossover could develop with our stochastic and MACD…

On a quarterly basis, a bullish divergence is in progress with our stochastic and MACD. With this hypothesis; if MQ (1.1862) fails as a resistance, PQ (1.2298) is our main objective. On a monthly basis, Bollinger bands spread is wide but shrinking slowly. Our M23 continue to decline but the status for our MACD is not yet overbought.

Idea: below PM (1.0797), LM (0.9954) could be our next target.

R = MQ (1.1862);     S = PM (1.0797), LM (0.9954)

 

Medium term: UW / LW spread is not minimal

On a weekly basis, the trend for our 7 / 23 weeks moving averages, stochastic is slowly down. A bearish non-crossover is the status for our MACD. Above MM (1.1036), MW (1.1417) is our main resistance. If 1.0812 (last week low) acts as a support, a bearish pre-parallel pattern could develop afterwards. Otherwise, a bear trend without ATDMF pattern will develop (as long as our MACD is not oversold).

Idea: intra-week bears position (cautious if UW is not rising).

R = MM (1.1036);    S = 1.0812, LD (1.0761), -

 

Short term: decline

On a daily basis, UD / LD spread is not minimal. Our indicators are always bearish. MD (1.1267) is our main resistance and LD (1.0948) is our main target.

Idea: nothing to do.

R = MM (1.1036);     S= LD (1.0761), -

 

Conclusion: nothing to do on a long term basis.

USD / CHF: Outlook for 2009

Long term: above UQ (1.3598)?

 On a yearly basis, our indicators are always bearish. But yearly close will be above LY. Next year, our stochastic and MACD will be oversold together. MY (1.3783) could be a target.

On a quarterly basis, a bullish divergence is in progress with our stochastic and MACD. With this hypothesis, PQ (1.2589) is our first objective and UQ (1.3598) is the next one if UM (1.2718) fails as a resistance.

On a monthly basis, Bollinger bands spread is maximal.  MM failed as a resistance, PQ (1.2589) is our next target and UM (1.2718) is the next one. A bullish divergence is in progress with our stochastic and our MACD.

Idea: above UM soon or monthly bullish pre-parallel pattern.

 

USD : encore (+) de volatilité => fin année (10/9/2008)

 

Editorial,

D’ici fin septembre, la tendance du dollar (pour les trois prochains mois) sera fixée. Ce qu’il est déjà possible de retenir : la forte volatilité va se poursuivre. Priorité est donc donnée aux opérations de trading. L’ATDMF permet d’anticiper et d’accompagner ces mouvements intra-day aussi bien sur les indices (Dax et CAC 40) que sur les devises. De nombreux opérateurs tant professionnels que particuliers en profitent tous les jours.

 

Dollar –Franc Suisse.

Le texte suivant est traduisible à l’aide de Yahoo Babel fish.


 

Long term: technical recovery

 On a yearly basis, our indicators are bearish. MY (1.3753) is a strong resistance.

On a quarterly basis, a bullish divergence could develop with our stochastic and MACD. With this hypothesis, PQ (1.2778) could be an objective if MQ (1.2089) fails as a resistance. But, as long as Q7 is bearish, the main trend is bearish.

On a monthly basis, a bearish parallel pattern is in progress. If MM (1.1313, at the end of the month) fails as a resistance, MQ (1.2089) will be our next target.

Idea: weekly chart is higher for 2 weeks or more.

 

Medium term: bullish Australian pattern

On a weekly basis, a weekly bullish Australian pattern is in progress. As long as our MACD is not overbought, the rise will continue.

Idea: bullish as long as M7 is up.

 

Short term: rise?

On a daily basis, the spread UD / LD is minimal. LD is flat. Our stochastic is not oversold. Below MD (1.1019), LD (1.0806) is our next objective.

Idea: LD (1.0806) is a strong support.

 

Conclusion: not so bullish on a weekly basis.

 

Une opération qui devrait être rentable (27/2/2008)

 

 

La pression sur le USD est sensible en ce début de matinée. Ceci signifie que les opérateurs qui travaillent en orient sont restés short d’USD avant de terminer leur journée. Nul doute que le mouvement pourrait se poursuivre tout le long de la journée en Europe et aux USA.

L’USD / CHF devrait être le couple le plus prometteur.

A noter que toutes les personnes qui suivent notre formation de base sur les devises sont, à la fin de ce stage,  en mesure de faire cette analyse et de mettre en pratique les prévisions faites.

 

USD / CHF

 

Le texte suivant est traduisible à l’aide de Babelfish  de Yahoo.

 

Long term: quarterly bearish T2 in progress

 On a yearly basis, our indicators are bearish. LY (1.056) is only our first support.

On a quarterly basis, a bearish non-crossover is in progress with our 7 – 23 quarters moving averages. Our stochastic and our MACD are overbought. A bearish T2 occurred (no divergence for UQ but we don’t short this market on a quarterly basis).

On a monthly basis, the spread UM – LM was minimal and increasing when a close occurred below LM. The status for our stochastic and MACD is a bearish non-crossover. With our 7 – 23 months moving averages, the dynamic of the bear trend is strong. PM crossed MM + a strong divergence between UM and LM. The pattern is a bearish Australian one. As long as MM (1.1974) acts as a resistance, the main trend will be bearish.

Idea: lower for some months

 

Medium term: bearish

On a weekly basis, the pattern with Bollinger bands is like a bearish pre-parallels one (since early September 07). As long as MW (1.1202) acts as a resistance, the bear trend will continue.

Idea: with our 7 weeks moving average trend, LW (1.0666) will be a weak support.

 

Short term: bearish ATDMF 2007 pattern

On a daily basis; with a new low today (below 1.0698), a bearish ATDMF pattern will develop.

Idea: short below 1.0698.

 

Conclusion: towards MD (1.0938) if 1.0698 acts as a support.