Archives mensuelles : septembre 2009

USD / JPY: lower

Long term:  MM (99.09) = strong resistance

On a yearly basis, a close occurred below LY and Bollinger bands are slowly down. A bearish non-crossover is the status for our 7 / 23 years moving averages. Our stochastic is overbought. The decline in progress could continue.

On a quarterly basis, UQ / LQ spread is expending. A bearish A type crossover is in progress with our 7 / 23 quarters moving averages. Our stochastic and MACD are overbought with a bearish non-crossover in progress for each one. Decline will continue for some periods.

On a monthly basis, UQ / LQ spread is far away from its minimal level. A bearish non-crossover for our 7 / 23 months moving averages is in progress.

Idea: 87.13 (current low) is our first objective.

R = MM (99.05);     S = 87.13, 79.70 (Historical low).

 

Medium term: decline without bearish pattern

 On a weekly basis, Bollinger bands spread is increasing. With our 7 / 23 weeks moving averages, a bearish non-crossover is in progress. Our monthly MACD is not neutral: no bearish ATDMF pattern could develop on a weekly basis. As long as our weekly MACD is not oversold, the decline could amplify.

Idea: lower as long as MW = resistance

R = MW (94.33);           S = 87.13

 

Short term: main trend is down

On a daily basis, Bollinger bands spread is not minimal. A bearish A type crossover is in progress with our 7 / 23 days moving averages. The status for our MACD is a bearish non-crossover. Decline will continue as long as MD proves to be a resistance.

Idea: nothing to do.

R = MD (91.27);   S = 87.13

 

Conclusion: weak on a medium term basis.

 

Crude oil: end of recovery

Yearly trend: bullish parallel pattern

On a yearly basis, MY acted as a support but T1 and PY price failed as supports. The status for our MACD is a bullish non-crossover. Our 7 / 23 years moving averages are always on a bull trend.

Idea: UY is a first resistance

 

Long term: technical recovery

On a quarterly basis, the spread UQ / LQ is maximal but shrinking slowly. With our 7 / 23 quarters moving averages, a bearish B type crossover will develop. Stochastic and MACD are overbought. Without a close above MQ, the recovery could be over.

On a monthly basis, the spread UM / LM is maximal. With our 7 / 23 months moving averages, a bearish non-crossover could develop if MM proves to be a resistance.

Idea: as long as MM proves to be a resistance, the rally in progress since January is only a technical recovery.

R= UY (76.92), MM (80.89), +++;    S= LW (60.97)

 

Medium term: flat

On a weekly basis, with our 7 / 23 weeks moving averages, a weak bullish non-crossover is over. Our stochastic and MACD are overbought.

Idea: a bearish pre-parallel pattern could develop

R = MW (67.79);    S = LW (60.97)

  

Short term (nearest future contract): UD / LD spread id not minimal

On a daily basis, a bearish A type crossover is in progress with our 7 / 23 days moving averages. Our MACD is overbought. LW could be a target.

Idea: nothing to do.

R =  MD (69.53);    S = LW (60.97)

 

 

Conclusion: only a technical recovery on a long term basis.

 

CAC 40: bearish(monthly) as long as MM = resistance (30/09)

Long term basis: out of monthly short position?

On a yearly basis, the status for our stochastic is overbought.

On a quarterly basis, UQ could be flat next quarter. With this hypothesis, MQ could be a target. Otherwise, the rise in progress could be only a technical recovery. LQ is our main support. The dynamic for our 7 quarters moving average is strong and will increase for 2 periods or more. A bearish B type crossover is in progress with our 7 / 23 quarters moving averages. With a bearish non-crossover for our stochastic a collapse towards LQ is expected. Otherwise, a recovery towards MQ could develop.

On a monthly basis; a bearish parallel pattern is in progress as long as MM proves to be a resistance (end of period). With our 7 / 23 months moving averages, a bullish B type crossover or a bearish non-crossover will develop within 3 months. The status will give the trend for the full year 2010.

Idea: as long as MM proves to be a resistance, our main trend is bearish.

R = MM (3775, end of month), MQ (4544);    S = MW (3392), LW (2940), LQ (2780)

 

Medium term: higher

On a weekly basis, LW could stay flat. A bullish non-crossover is in progress with our 7 / 23 weeks moving averages. As long as the pattern for our 7 / 23 weeks moving averages is not a bearish A type crossover, a decline is only a technical correction.

Idea: LW is a strong support. 

R = MM (3775, end of month), MQ (4544);        S= MW (3392), LW (2940)

 

Short term: towards LD if MD fails as a support.

On a daily basis, LD is flat. A bullish non-crossover is the status for our 7 / 23 days moving averages. Our MACD is overbought. Below MD, LD is our main support.

Idea: as long as the status for our 7 / 23 days moving averages is not a bearish A type crossover, a decline is only a technical correction.

R = MM (3775, end of month), MQ (4544);       S= MD (3715), LD (3536)

 

Conclusion: on a long / medium term basis; as long as MM proves to be a resistance, the rise in progress is only a technical recovery.

 

 

10 Y T-Note: bearish divergence on a quarterly basis

Long term: new bear trend?

On a yearly basis, UY is flat. The trend for our 7 / 23 years moving averages is not bearish. Our stochastic could be overbought at the end of this period with a bearish divergence. Below MY, the main trend will be bearish.

On a quarterly basis, for our stochastic the status is a bearish divergence (wait the end of Q3 for a validation). With this hypothesis, MQ is our first support. LQ is flat.  Next quarter an opposite pattern could develop: a bullish pre-parallel. With this hypothesis USD should be stronger than €.

On a monthly basis, our 7 / 23 moving averages are not bearish. A bearish B type crossover is expected. A bearish non-crossover is the status for our stochastic (and a bearish divergence is in progress). LM is our next objective.

Idea: quarterly MACD status will be the key for investors.

 R = UW (120.26);    S = LM (110.96), MY (109.41), LQ (101.93)

 

Medium term: bearish without ATDMF pattern

On a weekly basis, the status for our 7 / 23 weeks moving averages could be a bearish non-crossover. The status for our stochastic is a bullish non-crossover.

Idea: as long as our MACD is not overbought, UW is our main resistance.

R = UW (120.26);      S = LW (113.62)

 

 Short term: neutral

On a daily basis, UD / LD spread is minimal. With our weekly trend, UD is a strong resistance. Below LD, a bearish ATDMF pattern could develop.

Idea: nothing to do.

 

R = UD (118.02);       S = LD (116.6), LW (113.62)

 

Conclusion: with a bearish divergence as a status for our quarterly stochastic (end of Q3), a Major financial crisis will develop.

 

Présentation de l’ATDMF: 25 septembre, Paris centre

Présentation de l’ATDMF en collaboration avec ProRealTime

Par Philippe Cahen et Franck Rougeot.

ProRealTime édite le module ATDMF.

 

Vendredi  25 septembre, présentation de l’ATDMF. Paris centre (9h30 à 17h).

Participation au frais 100 € (repas et document inclus).

 

4 places sont disponibles.

 

 

Renseignements : atdmfcahen@yahoo.fr

Edito : vous avez dit analyse technique ?

Vous êtes un particulier ou un professionnel, vous pensez que l’analyse technique va vous permettre de prendre une position dont le dénouement va se traduire par une plus-value.

 Le terme analyse fait référence à une situation passée (qui va se reproduire). Vous attendez que les mêmes causes produisent les mêmes effets. Ceci implique quelques conditions à ne pas négliger :

-  il faut que les paramètres retenus pour la comparaison soient significatifs (ceux qui font bouger les cours). Par exemple en analyse technique, le poids de l’analyse des indicateurs techniques ne représente que 40 % du poids de la prise de décision (en admettant qu’ils soient utilisés à bon escient : par exemple, utiliser un non-croisement entre un indicateur et sa moyenne mobile au lieu d’un croisement comme c’était l’usage dans les années 80) et non pas 100 % comme le laisse penser les analyses techniques type XX eme siècle (la majorité des analystes techniques pensent que c’est bien de penser rétro. En réalité cela évite de réfléchir et donc de se fatiguer). Les 60 % restants sont liés à l’analyse de la volatilité (l’analyse de celle-ci est donc primordiale, mais généralement oubliée dans les analyses).

- Il faut également que les conditions environnementales (économique, politique, technologiques, etc) soient stables : depuis 1990 ces différents facteurs se modifient sans cesse.

Il n’est donc plus possible d’utiliser le passé pour anticiper l’avenir (l’utilisation d’une technique sophistiquée telle que l’analyse neuronale devient le summum de la bêtise). Pour réaliser des prévisions, il convient d’avoir un autre type de démarche : repérer un ensemble de configurations exceptionnelles positives (situation qui permet d’anticiper un mouvement puissant avec une probabilité minimale de réalisation dans 80 % des cas), s’assurer qu’aucune information exceptionnelle négative ne soit présente (une seule information de ce type annule toutes les informations positives) puis anticiper un objectif (ce qui est simple lorsque l’on s’aide de l’analyse de la volatilité) afin de justifier la prise de position. Avec cette approche, il sera possible d’anticiper un événement lointain dans le futur (décalage des cours) en fonction  d’une situation spécifique dans un futur proche. Ainsi, il sera possible d’agir même si des conditions de marchés inconnues sont observées ou en préparation.

L’année 2010 pourrait être dominée par une hausse du chômage dans la majeure partie des pays industrialisés (déclaration de plusieurs Présidents ) avec une hausse insoupçonnée des taux d’intérêts (politiquement incorrect  et donc censurée par les médias). Un nouveau cocktail qui pourrait être explosif, surtout pour ceux qui ne se guident qu’en  se référant au passé ….

 

Formations ATDMF personnalisée (pour  débutant ou opérateur expérimenté) : inscription, renseignements et CV de Philippe Cahen en faisant la demande sur  atdmfcahen@yahoo.fr

€ / $ : towards 1.50 or higher

 

   Long term: higher next year

On a yearly basis, Bollinger band spread is not minimal, LY is flat but UY is rising. Our 7 / 23 moving averages are up and our MACD will not be overbought before two periods or more. UY could be a target.

On a quarterly basis, the trend for our 7 / 23 quarters moving averages is neutral.  Our stochastic and MACD are overbought but could be neutral / oversold at the end of 2009. As long as MQ proves to be a support, UQ / PQ is our main target.

On a monthly basis, the UM / LM spread is maximal. A bullish B type crossover could be the next status for our 7 / 23 months moving averages. The status for our stochastic and MACD is oversold. A bullish non-crossover could be in progress and develop next month. UQ / PQ is our main target.

Idea: higher as long as MQ = support

R = UY (1.5), UQ (1.5538), PQ (1.5891);    S= MQ (1.3459)

 

Medium term: higher

On a weekly basis, LW trend is up. M23 will stay up for some periods. As long as MW proves to be a support, the main trend is up.

Idea: decline below MW

R = UY (1.5);     S = MW (1.4153)

 

Short term: bullish parallel patternlrt term: no trend965Y (1.4243amilliales) enance personnelle.tellis

On a daily basis, a bullish ATDMF pattern is in progress.

Idea: use bullish parallel rules.

R = UY (1.5);   S = MD (1.4507)

 

Conclusion: UQ / PQ target is expected.