Archives mensuelles : décembre 2008

Analyses

Bonjour à toutes et à tous,

 

Nos prochaines analyses vont reprendre régulièrement à partir du 6 janvier prochain.

Cependant, la surveillance des marchés se poursuit. Si une évolution à l’horizon de plusieurs semaines le justifie, une mise à jour sera publiée.

Noue vous souhaitons de joyeuses fêtes et à l’aide de l’ATDMF, une année 2009 aussi prospère qu’en 2008.

Indices : prévisions pour 2009

 

Oubliez la référence à 1929 en matière de krach boursier. La version 2008 / 20xx sera bien plus significative. Une comparaison en terme de comportement futur des indices doit être faite avec les titres France Telecom ou Alcatel-Lucent  à partir de 2000 sur un graphique trimestriel.

PS : les prévisions sur différents indices sont publiées. Conservez cette analyse pour la comparer à celles des autres approches techniques et fondamentales.

Prochaine formation ATDMF 10/11 Janvier (cf Formations)

CAC 40: prévisions pour 2009

Long term: 2400 or lower

On a yearly basis, MY (3375) will fail as a support. 3000 is our first target and 2400 is the next one. Our stochastic will be overbought at the end of Q4. With this hypothesis, 2400 will fail as a support. Below 2 000, LY (512 in 2008) will be our next objective.

On a quarterly basis, our 7 / 23 quarters moving averages crossover could be a bearish A type. Our MACD is overbought. LQ failed as a support (wait the end of Q4) and a nice dynamic could develop with UQ. With this hypothesis, 2400 is our next target.

On a monthly basis; Bollinger bands are diverging with a strong dynamic. A bearish crossover PM / MM occurred. A bearish parallel pattern is in progress for 4 to 15(?) periods.

 

Idea: if the dynamic for UQ increase, new lows (2400, 2000, LY) are expected.

 

S&P 500: outlook for 2009

Long term basis: Yearly bearish divergence with our stochastic and MACD => 500 as a first target

On a yearly basis, a bullish parallels pattern was in progress. Next pattern (end of Q4) for our MACD will be a bearish divergence. Furthermore, our MACD will be overbought before our stochastic: a sharp decline is in progress. Below 700, the collapse in progress will amplify. 500 and LY (114) are our next supports.

On a quarterly basis, Bollinger bands spread increase. The dynamic for our 7 quarters moving average is strong and will increase for 5 periods or more. A bearish A type crossover is likely. Since the end of March 08 a bearish divergence is the status for our MACD. This is the status for our stochastic since December 2007.  The bear move is in progress as long as our stochastic is not oversold..

On a monthly basis; next month, a bearish crossover PM / MM + increase of the dynamic for UM occurred. A bearish A type crossover is in progress for our 7 / 23 months moving averages. The bear trend for our moving averages will increase until mid 2009 or +. The status for our stochastic and MACD is a bearish non-crossover. A bearish parallel pattern is in progress for some months (4 to 15?).  

 

Idea: with the yearly stochastic status, a bear trend is in progress for multi years. 

 

 

Nikkeï : outlook for 2009

Long term: towards LY (4865)

On a yearly basis, our MACD was overbought before our stochastic. LY (4865) is our first support. Collapse could continue for 2 to 7 (?) next periods.

 On a quarterly basis, the status for our stochastic and MACD is overbought. The spread UQ / LQ is wide but extend. For our 7 / 23 quarters moving averages, a bearish A type crossover will develop. LY (4865) is our first target.

On a monthly basis, a bearish parallel pattern is in progress.

 

Idea: no recovery before 2011. Below LY (4865) is not ruled out.

 

Contrat 3 M Euribor: outlook for 2009

 

Long term: higher

On a monthly basis, next status for our 7 / 23 months moving averages will be a bullish A type crossover. Stochastic and MCD are oversold. As long as our MACD is not overbought, the rise will continue.

Idea: higher

 

Medium term: bullish parallel pattern

On a weekly basis, the spread UW / LW was minimal when a close occurred above UW. The status for our 7 / 23 moving averages is a bullish A type crossover. A bullish non-crossover is the status for our stochastic and MACD. Bollinger Bands had a strong dynamic + bullish crossover PW / MW. A bullish parallel pattern is in progress.

Idea: use bullish parallel rules.

 

Contrat Eurobund: outlook for 2009

 

 

Long term: bullish trend for 2009

On a quarterly basis, Bollinger bands spread is minimal. Bollinger bands are slightly up. A bullish A type crossover will be the next status for our 7 / 23 quarters moving averages. PQ (120.89) failed as a resistance. 124.60 (Historical high) is the first target. As long as our MACD is not overbought, the rise will continue or amplify.

On a monthly basis, the spread UM / LM is near its minimal level. Bollinger bands are diverging. With our 7 / 23 moving averages, the status is a bullish A type crossover. Our MACD is oversold. A nice dynamic is in progress with LM. As long as our MACD is not overbought, the bull trend will continue or amplify.

 

Idea: ECB will act again and again in 2009.

 

Contrat 3 m Eurodollar: outlook for 2009

 

Long term: bullish

On a yearly basis, Bollinger bands spread is minimal and UY is up. The status for our 7 / 23 years moving averages is a bullish non-crossover. Our stochastic and MACD will be oversold at the end of the year. The up trend will continue for two periods or more.

On a quarterly basis, the spread UQ / LQ is minimal but is increasing. A bullish non-crossover is the status for our stochastic and MACD. With a new high next period, a bullish ATDMF pattern will be in hand.

On a monthly basis, a bullish non-crossover is the status for our 7 / 23 months moving averages. Pattern with our Bollinger bands is a bullish parallel one.

 Idea: FED will act again in 2008 and 2009.

 

 

10 y T-Note: Outlook for 2009

Long term: bullish

On a yearly basis, Bollinger bands spread is minimal and UY is up. The status for our 7 / 23 years moving averages is a bullish non-crossover. Our stochastic and MACD will be oversold at the end of the year. The up trend will continue for two periods or more.

On a quarterly basis, the spread UQ / LQ is minimal but is increasing. A bullish non-crossover is the status for our stochastic and MACD. With a new high next period, a bullish ATDMF pattern will be in hand.

On a monthly basis, a bullish non-crossover is the status for our 7 / 23 months moving averages. Pattern with our Bollinger bands is a bullish parallel one.

 Idea: FED will act again in 2008 and 2009.