Archives pour la catégorie CAC 40

CAC 40 : potentiel à la hausse

 

Notre précédente prévision sur le CAC (cf l’article du 11/03/2015 ) développée au Salon de l’analyse technique reste d’actualité.

Deux niveaux à surveiller : MD ( 5133 le 21/04) et PD (5266.8 le 21/04).

Tant que MD sert de support en clôture le test de PY (5349.8) reste notre priorité. Une fois ce niveau dépassé, UY (6003.2) l’objectif suivant devrait être testé rapidement. 6944 sera envisageable par la suite.

Si MD ne tient pas, LD (4966 le 21/04) sera un support puissant.

CAC 40: focus on monthly MACD

Long term basis: not yet bullish

On a yearly basis, stochastic and MACD could continue to be overbought. As long as MY (end of period) proves to be a resistance, the main trend is not bullish.

On a quarterly basis, LQ / UQ spread is shrinking. Our stochastic and MACD are oversold. Our moving averages trend is not bullish.

On a monthly basis, a type B is the status for our moving averages.

Idea: with an overbought status for our monthly MACD a bearish no-crossover could be the next status for our quarterly moving averages

Bet: MM will fail as a support if the next status for our monthly MACD is overbought.

R= UM (3980);    S= MM (3454), LM (2928)

Medium term: lower for 3 weeks or more

On a weekly basis, Bollinger bands spread is a reference one.

Idea: LW is our first support

Bet: with an uptrend for UW, MM could be an objective.

R= MW (3799);               S= LW (3583), MM (3454).

Short term: lower

On a daily basis, TAM tools are bearish.

Idea: use our MACD as a leading indicator

Bet: towards LW or below.

R= MD (3868);     S= LW (3583)

Conclusion: focus on monthly MACD.

CAC 40: weak, but focus on gold next Tuesday (money management)

Long term basis: not yet bullish

On a yearly basis, stochastic and MACD could continue to be overbought. The rise in progress is only a technical recovery.

On a quarterly basis, LQ / UQ spread is shrinking. Our stochastic and MACD are oversold. Our moving averages are neutral.

On a monthly basis, a type B is the status for our moving averages.

Idea: monthly stochastic is our leading indicator

Bet: UM is a strong resistance (end of period).

R= UM (3661), 4169 (Feb 2011 high);    S= MM (3373)

Medium term: weak

On a weekly basis, our stochastic and MACD are overbought.

Idea: MACD is our leading indicator

Bet: towards LW if PW fails as a support.

R= UW (3862);               S= PW (3646), LW (3519).

Short term: lower

On a daily basis, UD / LD spread is a reference one. A PEI is the status for our MACD.

Idea: use our MACD as a leading indicator

Bet: too early for a sell-off

R= MW (3792);     S= PW (3646)

Conclusion: As long as PD proves to be a resistance, PW could fail as a support.

Warning: see (one more time)  03/04 article and atdmfcahen@yahoo.fr for explanations

CAC 40: higher but

Long term basis: not yet bullish

On a yearly basis, stochastic and MACD could continue to be overbought. As long as MY (end of period) proves to be a resistance, the main trend is not bullish.

On a quarterly basis, LQ / UQ spread is shrinking. Our stochastic and MACD are oversold. Our moving averages trend is bearish.

On a monthly basis; for M23, the trend is bearish. Our stochastic and MACD are oversold.

Idea: monthly stochastic is our leading indicator

Bet: UM as a first resistance.

R= UM (3823), 4145 (Jan 2011 high);    S= MM (3354)

Medium term: higher without bull trend.

On a weekly basis, a bullish no-crossover is the status for each TAM tool. A NEI is in progress with our monthly M23.

Idea: higher as long as our MACD is not overbought

Bet: towards UM is likely.

R= UM (3823);               S= MW (3571).

Short term: technical correction

On a daily basis, our moving averages are up but our MACD is not oversold.

Idea: end of correction when our MACD will be oversold

Bet: nothing to do.

R= UD (3788);     S= MD (3735), LD (3683).

Conclusion: if you want to add a long position, buy S&P 500.

CAC 40: higher, but

Long term basis: not yet bullish

On a yearly basis, stochastic and MACD could continue to be overbought. As long as MY (end of period) proves to be a resistance, the main trend is not bullish.

On a quarterly basis, LQ / UQ spread is shrinking. Our stochastic and MACD are oversold. Our moving averages trend is down.

On a monthly basis; for M23, the trend is bearish. Our stochastic and MACD are oversold.

Idea: monthly stochastic is our leading indicator

Bet: UM as a first resistance.

R= UM (3861), 4145 (Jan 2011 high);    S= MM (3362)

Medium term: higher without bull trend.

On a weekly basis, a bullish no-crossover is the status for each TAM tool. A NEI is in progress with our monthly M23.

Idea: higher as long as our MACD is not overbought

Bet: towards UM is likely.

R= UM (3861);               S= MW (3532).

Short term: higher

On a daily basis, M23 is not flat. A weak bullish no-crossover is the status for our moving averages.

Idea: daily MACD is our leading indicator

Bet: nothing to do.

R= UM (3861);     S= MD (3694).

Conclusion: if you want to add a long position, buy S&P 500.

CAC 40: technical recovery

Long term basis: lower

On a yearly basis, stochastic and MACD could continue to be overbought for two periods or more. As long as MY (end of period) proves to be a resistance, the main trend is not bullish.

On a quarterly basis, LQ / UQ spread is shrinking. A PEI is in progress with our moving averages.

On a monthly basis; for M23, the trend is bearish. Our stochastic and MACD are oversold. PM could be the main resistance.

Idea: not bullish as long as our monthly M23 is not up

Bet: higher if 3601 fails as a resistance (end of period).

R= PM (3588), 3600.8 (March 2012 high), MQ (3647), MY (3709);    S= MM (3393), LM (2782)

Medium term: without trend

On a weekly basis, TAM tools are neutral.

Idea: below MW, LW is our main objective

Bet: weak as long as our weekly stochastic is not oversold.

R= UW (3608);               S= MW (3405), LW (3202).

Short term: higher without a bullish trend

On a daily basis, UD / LD spread is expending. No PEI could develop with TAM tools.

Idea: daily MACD is our leading indicator

Bet: nothing to do.

R= MQ (3647);     S= MD (3433).

Conclusion: nothing to do for some weeks.

 

CAC 40: trading range

Long term basis: lower

On a yearly basis, stochastic and MACD could continue to be overbought for two periods or more. As long as MY (end of period) proves to be a resistance, the main trend is not bullish.

On a quarterly basis, LQ / UQ spread is shrinking. A PEI is in progress with our moving averages. Stochastic and MACD are oversold.

On a monthly basis; for M23, the trend is bearish. Our stochastic and MACD are oversold. PM could be the main resistance.

Idea: not bullish as long as our monthly M23 is not up

Bet: higher if 3601 fails as a resistance (end of period).

R= 3600.8 (March 2012 high), MQ (3648);    S= MM (3393), LM (2782)

Medium term: below MW?

On a weekly basis, a bearish no-crossover is the status for our stochastic and MACD.

Idea: below MW, LW is our main objective

Bet: lower as long as our weekly stochastic is not oversold.

R= PW (3573.9);               S= MW (3363), LW (3090).

Short term: trading range

On a daily basis, UD / LD spread is a reference one. No PEI could develop with TAM tools.

Idea: stochastic is our leading indicator

Bet: nothing to do.

R= UD (3529);     S= MD (3442), LD (3355).

Conclusion: nothing to do for some weeks.