Archives mensuelles : février 2011

Formation analyse technique : ATDMF 2011

Pour répondre à des questions essentielles, qu’aucun analyste technique n’a cherché à se poser.

 

Fruit d’une longue pratique et de réflexions personnelles, les concepts développés avec cette approche sont totalement inédits. L’ATDMF 2011 vous  permet d’utiliser, dès maintenant, l’analyse technique telle qu’elle le sera dans les prochaines années tant en France qu’à l’étranger.

Avec l’ATDMF 2011, les moyennes mobiles, comme l’ensemble des indicateurs, sont utilisées comme outils d’anticipation. C’est bien ce que l’on demande à un indicateur utilisé pour prévoir l’avenir d’un marché ! (Faut-il encore se poser certaines questions lorsqu’on utilise un outil). Nous abordons aussi  une autre question : celle de la pertinence d’utiliser tel ou tel outil à un moment donné : ce que nous nommons l’Analyse Technique Management (ATM).

 

Les outils que sont les Informations Exceptionnelles positives (IEP) et  négatives (IEN), mis au point dans le cadre de l’ATDMF 2011, vont vous devenir indispensables pour prendre une décision.

 

En utilisant les IEP et IEN, pratiquer le trading intraday sur les produits les plus volatils va devenir une routine pour la majorité des opérateurs.

Renseignements pour les dates disponibles (semaine et week-end) : atdmfcahen@yahoo.fr

10 Y T-Note: with a daily type II PEI, add TYO

Long term: towards LM

On a yearly basis, the status for our 7 / 23 years moving averages is a bullish no-crossover. The same status is in progress for our stochastic. The rise in progress could extend for some periods. Current Historical high is our first objective.

On a quarterly basis, UQ / LQ spread is wide. A bullish A type crossover is in progress with our 7 / 23 quarters moving averages. Our stochastic and MACD could be overbought at the close. Current Historical high or MQ could be an objective.

On a monthly basis, the spread for Bollinger bands spread is above a reference one. A bearish A type crossover could develop this year with our 7 / 23 quarters moving averages Our stochastic and MACD are overbought. LM could be a target.

Idea: LM is a strong support.

Bet: with a close below MM, LM as a target is likely.

 R = MM (120.1);    S =MQ (115.16), LM (113.69)

 

Medium term: lower for some weeks

On a weekly basis, PEI are in progress with TAM. MQ is our first target.

Idea: MW is a strong resistance

Bet: bearish below MQ.

R = MW (122.98);    S = MQ (115.16)

  

Short term: Bollinger bands spread is expending

On a daily basis, a type I or II PEI is expected.

Idea: wait for PEI

Bet: type II.

R = MD (120.1);    S = MQ (115.16)

 

Conclusion: with a daily type II PEI add TYO.

 

USD / JPY: technical recovery

Long term:  bearish on a long term basis

On a yearly basis, Bollinger bands are down. A PEI is the status for our 7 / 23 years moving averages. Our stochastic and MACD are overbought. The decline in progress should continue for some periods. 

On a quarterly basis, a bearish A type crossover is in progress. A PEI is the status for our stochastic and MACD. A qualification into a bearish parallel is not ruled out.

On a monthly basis; a bearish parallel pattern is always in progress. A PEI is in progress with our 7 / 23 months moving averages.

Idea: use monthly bearish parallel rules

Bet: towards 75 or lower.

R = PM (87.08);     S = 79.70 (Historical low), 75, – – -.

 

Medium term: without trend

 On a weekly basis, Bollinger bands are flat. A bearish no-crosover is in progress with our 7 / 23 weeks moving averages. With an overbought status for our MACD, LW will be our next objective.

Idea: bearish as long as MW proves to be a resistance

Bet: as long as our 7 weeks moving average is down, a bear trend could develop.

R = MW (82.50), UW (84.16);           S = LW (80.75)

 

 Short term: flat

On a daily basis, Bollinger spread is a reference one. With an oversold status for our stochastic and MACD, UD could be a target.

Idea: technical recovery in progress

Bet: UW is a strong resistance.

R = UD (83.09), UW (84.16);   S = LD (81.57)

 

Conclusion: technical recovery in progress (end of fiscal year in March).

 

Crude oil: neutral

Yearly trend: higher

 

On a yearly basis, the pattern in progress looks like a parallel pattern. A PEI is in progress with our MACD. Our 7 / 23 years moving averages are always on a bull trend.

Idea:  UY / LY spread increasing each week

Bet: towards UQ is not ruled out.

R= 100, PQ (115.14)    S= MM (77.47)

 

Long term: higher

On a quarterly basis, the spread UQ / LQ is maximal. TAM are up.

On a monthly basis, the spread UM / LM is shrinking and not far away from its reference level. A NEI is in progress with our Bollinger bands.

Idea: rise as long as our MACD is not overbought

Bet: a bullish pre-parallel pattern could develop..

R= 100;   S= PM (76.39)

 

Medium term: bullish parallel qualification

On a weekly basis, a bullish parallel is in progress.

Idea: use bullish parallel rules

Bet: MW will act as a support.

R = UW (93.44);    S = MW (86.27)

 

 Short term: flat

On a daily basis, our Bollinger bands spread is above a reference one. TAM are neutral.

Idea: LD is a strong support

Bet: wait for a bullish signal.

R = MD (89.8), LD (93.24);    S = LD (86.35)

 

Conclusion: nothing to do.

 

CAC 40: not yet bullish (medium term basis)

PEI= Positive exceptional information

NEI= Negative exceptional information

TAM= Technical Analysis Management tools

Long term basis: not yet bullish

On a yearly basis, the status for our stochastic is overbought. With our 7 / 23 years moving averages, a bearish B type crossover will develop before 2014.  As long as MY (end of period) proves to be a support, the recovery could continue. Next supports are 2003 low and LY.

On a quarterly basis, LQ / UQ spread is maximal. MQ is our next objective. Above MQ, UQ is our next objective.

On a monthly basis, Bollinger bands spread is minimal. With the quarterly trend, as long as MM proves to be a support, UM is our maximal target. With a close below MM, May 2010 low is our first objective and LM is the next one.

Idea: bullish with a close above MQ

Bet: focus on LM trend: without a bearish trend, MQ = resistance.

R = UM (4067, at the close), MQ (4380);    S = MM (3719), May 2010 low (3287), LM (3370), 2003 low (2401)

 

Medium term: higher

On a weekly basis, Bollinger bands spread is minimal with a NEI. A PEI is in progress with our  7 / 23 weeks moving averages. The rise in progress will continue as long as our MACD is not overbought.

Idea:  nothing to do

Bet: rise in progress.

 

R = UM (4067, at the close);               S= MW (3853), LW (3668)

 

Short term: higher

On a daily basis, without PEI on daily TAM, no bull trend could develop. As long as MD proves to be a support, a decline is only a technical move.

Idea: towards LD if MD fails as a support

Bet: nothing to do.

R = UD (4123);     S= MD (3985), LD (3848)

 

Conclusion: US indices are stronger than CAC 40.  

 

€ / $: above 1.5 this year

On a yearly basis,

Bollinger band spread is not minimal and will stay at the same level for some periods. A bullish A type crossover is in progress with our 7 / 23 years moving averages. UY is our main resistance.

On a quarterly basis, Bollinger spread is a reference one. For our 7 / 23 quarters moving averages, a PEI is not ruled out. On a monthly basis, the UM / LM spread is far away from its minimal level. A PEI is in progress with our stochastic and MACD. A bullish A type crossover is expected. UM is our next target.

Idea: towards UQ

Bet: bullish

R = UY (1.5083), UM (1.5127), UQ (1.5467);    S= MM (1.3676)

 

Medium term: UW / LW is a reference one

On a weekly basis, TAM are up. UW is our next objective.

Idea: use our weekly MACD as a leading indicator

Bet: UW as a first objective.

R = UW (1.4146);     S = MW (1.3548)

 

  

Short term: bullish parallel

On a daily basis, a type II PEI is in progress. A PEI is in progress with our MACD.

Idea: use parallel rules

Bet: towards UW

R = UW (1.4146);   S = PD (1.3571).

 

Conclusion: as long as MD proves to be a support, UM is our main objective.

 

Gold: technical decline on a medium term basis

Yearly trend: in 2012 /2013, qualification in a new bullish parallel pattern

On a yearly basis, a bullish parallel pattern is in progress with a strong dynamic for LY. PY could cross MY next period. A PEI is in progress with our stochastic. On a Historical basis, one of the most bullish pattern ever seen (since the end of XIX century). 

Idea: LY will continue to decline for two periods or more

Bet: S&P 500 rise in the 1986 / 2000 as a benchmark.

 

Long term: bullish parallel on a quarterly basis

On a quarterly basis, the pattern is a bullish parallel one. The dynamic for our 7 / 23 quarters moving averages is strong and continue thru 2013. A PEI is in progress with our MACD.

On a monthly basis, with a type I PEI in progress, as long as PM proves to be a support, a bullish parallel is in progress.

Idea: use bullish parallel rules on a monthly basis

Bet: as long as monthly M7 is up a decline is only technical correction.

R = rise > 2 years, +++ (should be above 2 000, 3 000 and +++);    S = PM (1300.1)

  

Medium term: LW could be an objective

On a weekly basis; volatility is above a reference one. Our stochastic and MACD are overbought. LW should act as a support.

Idea: as long as our stochastic is not oversold, a decline could be in progress.

Bet: LW is our main support.

 

R= MW (1360)       S = LW (1301.8)

 

 Short term:  a recovery could develop

On a daily basis, as long as M7 is down, the main trend is down. With a recovery for M23 a bullish A type crossover could develop. Above MD, UD is our next objective.

Idea: next week, without a recovery above MD, LW will be our first target.

Bet: bearish with a type III PEI.

 

R = PD (1347.6), MD (1356.6)         S = LD (1318.7)

 

Conclusion: hold on long position as long as LW proves to be a support.