Archives mensuelles : mars 2012

CAC 40: warning below MW

Long term basis: technical recovery

On a yearly basis, stochastic and MACD could continue to be overbought for two periods or more. As long as MY (end of period) proves to be a resistance, the main trend is not bullish.

On a quarterly basis, LQ / UQ spread is maximal. Our stochastic could be oversold next period. A NEI will continue to be the status for our moving averages.

On a monthly basis, with a NEI as a status for our moving averages, a bullish trend is impossible.

Idea: cannot be bullish

Bet: towards PM if MM fails as a resistance (e.o.p.).

R = MM (3600), MY (3712); S = LM (2904), PQ (2565)

Medium term: rise?

On a weekly basis, without a PEI, the rise in progress is only a technical recovery.

Idea: rise as long as our MACD is not overbought

Bet: towards LW if MW fails as a support.

R = MM (3600); S= MW (3270), LW (2894).

Short term: decline?

On a daily basis, UD / LD spread is a reference one. No PEI is in progress.

Idea: decline as long as our MACD is not oversold

Bet: towards MW.

R = MD (3494); S= LD (3378), MW (3270).

Conclusion: end of the medium term recovery if MW fails as a support.

Formation de base : réduction de 10 à 30 %

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Renseignements : atdmfcahen@yahoo.fr

USD / JPY: new trend (long term basis)

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Long term: a technical recovery is expected

On a yearly basis, Bollinger band spread could increase. A PEI is in progress with our moving averages.

On a quarterly basis, stochastic and MACD could be oversold next period.

On a monthly basis, UM is our next objective.

Idea: towards UM

Bet: rise as long as our monthly stochastic is not overbought.

R= UM (85.43), MQ (94.18); S= MM (80.52)

Medium term: technical recovery

On a weekly basis, prices are above UW and the trend for LW is bearish. A NEI is the status of the monthly time frame and no PEI is in progress with TAM tools.

Idea: higher as long as our MACD is not overbought

Bet: focus on monthly M23 trend.

R = UM (85.43); S = MW (78.81)

Short term: bullish parallel

On a daily basis, a bullish parallel pattern is in progress.

Idea: use bullish parallel rules

Bet: towards UD.

R = UD (84.31); S = MD (82.5)

Conclusion: technical recovery on a medium term basis.

Position: Previous = out, in progress = no position, Next: out.

since 01/01 = NS

Gold: trading range on a medium term basis.

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Yearly trend: in 2012 /2013, qualification in a new bullish parallel pattern

On a yearly basis, a bullish parallel pattern is in progress with a strong dynamic for LY. A type II is expected at the end of 2012. On a global Historical basis, one of the most bullish pattern ever seen (since the end of XIX century).

Idea: focus on LY trend

Bet: S&P 500 rise in the 1986 / 2000 as a benchmark.

Long term: bullish parallel on a quarterly basis

On a quarterly basis, the pattern is a bullish parallel one. A type I could develop at the end of March 2012. The dynamic for our 7 / 23 quarters moving averages is strong and continue thru 2013.

On a monthly basis, a bullish parallel pattern is in progress but the status for our MACD is a NEI.

Idea: towards LM if MM fails as a support

Bet: a NEI could be the status for our monthly stochastic

R= rise > 2 years, +++ (could be above 5 000); S= MM (1527.6), MQ (1123), LM (1198.4)

Medium term: flat

On a weekly basis, UW / LW spread is above a reference one. No bullish PEI is in progress.

Idea: towards LW with an overbought status for our MACD

Bet: rise as long as MW proves to be a support.

R= UW (1788.9); S= MW (1683.4), LW (1578).

Short term: trading range

On a daily basis, our stochastic and MACD are oversold and M23 trend is down.

Idea: UD is our first resistance

Bet: higher as long as our MACD is not overbought..

R= UD (1730.1); S= MD (1680.4), LD (1630.7).

Conclusion: trading range on a medium term basis.

CAC 40: end of the medium term recovery

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Long term basis: technical recovery

On a yearly basis, stochastic and MACD could continue to be overbought for two periods or more. As long as MY (end of period) proves to be a resistance, the main trend is not bullish.

On a quarterly basis, LQ / UQ spread is maximal. Our stochastic could be oversold soon.

On a monthly basis, with a NEI as a status for our moving averages, a bullish trend is impossible.

Idea: cannot be bullish with a quarterly M23 trend on the down side

Bet: towards PM if MM fails as a resistance (e.o.p.).

R = MM (3601), MY (3712); S = PQ (2565)

Medium term: rise

On a weekly basis, without a PEI, the rise in progress is only a technical recovery.

Idea: rise as long as our MACD is not overbought

Bet: nothing to do (buy US indices not CAC 40).

R = MM (3601); S= MW (3254).

Short term: without trend

On a daily basis, UD / LD spread is not increasing. No PEI is in progress.

Idea: decline as long as our MACD is not oversold

Bet: towards LD.

R = MD (3494); S= LD (3381).

Conclusion: end of the medium term recovery if MM acts as a resistance.

In April, new speech for Bernanke

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Long term: bullish

On a yearly basis, Bollinger bands spread is increasing. The status for TAM tools is a PEI for each one. As long as no NEI will develop on a monthly basis, the rise in progress could extend for some periods.

On a quarterly basis, a bullish no-crossover is in progress with our 7 / 23 quarters moving averages. The pattern in progress is a parallel one.

On a monthly basis, the spread for Bollinger bands is above a reference one. A new status could develop for TAM tools.

Idea: rise as long as MM = support

Bet: long term trend will be done next quarter with monthly TAM status.

R = 132.35 (Historical High), + + + ; S = MM (125.63)

Medium term (June 2012contract): out

On a weekly basis, a bearish no-crossover is the status for our MACD.

Idea: lower as long as our MACD is not oversold

Bet: monthly TAM tools will be overbought.

R = MW (129.99) S = LW (128)

Short term: decline

On a daily basis, a NEI will continue on the weekly time frame.

Idea: lower as long as our MACD is not oversold

Bet: lower until early April.

R = MD (130.76); S = LW (127.96)

Conclusion: nothing to do this week.

USD / JPY: higher

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Long term: lower?

On a yearly basis, Bollinger band spread could increase. A PEI is in progress with our moving averages.

On a quarterly basis, a technical recovery could develop.

On a monthly basis, UM is our next objective.

Idea: towards UM

Bet: rise as long as our monthly stochastic is not overbought.

R= UM (85.47); S= MM (80.54)

Medium term: technical recovery

On a weekly basis, prices are above UW and the trend for LW is bearish. A NEI is the status of the monthly time frame and no PEI is in progress with TAM tools.

Idea: higher as long as our MACD is not overbought

Bet: focus on monthly M23 trend.

R = UM (85.47); S = MW (78.57)

Short term: bullish parallel

On a daily basis, a bullish parallel pattern is in progress.

Idea: use bullish parallel rules

Bet: towards UM.

R = UM (85.47); S = PD (81.96)

Conclusion: technical recovery on a medium term basis.

Philippe Cahen au Salon de l’analyse technique

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23 / 24 Mars 2012 Salon de l’analyse technique espace Pierre Cardin

http://www.salonat.com

Vendredi 23

19h30 – 20h30 : Théâtre Cardin (durée: 1 heure – accès GRATUIT / FREE event)
Sujet : » Analyse technique et pédagogie «
(catégorie 1 – Néophyte)

Conférencier : Philippe Cahen (ATDMF l’Analyse Technique du XXIème siècle)

Description : L’utilisation de l’analyse technique se résume dans la majorité des cas à l’utilisation d’indicateurs mis au point au début des années 80. Cette situation est incohérente en 2012 car la volatilité n’est jamais systématiquement analysée (60 % du poids de la prise de décision d’entrée dans un marché). En dehors des ouvrages consacrés à l’ATDMF, la structuration des analyses n’a jamais été évoquée. Cette situation permet de faire passer ses idées mais ne permet pas d’apporter une réponse rationnelle concernant le potentiel de fluctuation des marchés. Mais la critique principale que l’on doit porter sur l’analyse technique est son utilisation comme outil de marketing. L’analyse technique, lorsqu’elle est correctement utilisée, permet objectivement de réaliser des plus-values. Etat des lieux.

Samedi 24

17h30 – 18h30 : Forum AT – Rotonde (durée: 1 heure – accès GRATUIT / FREE event)
Sujet : » Analyse et Etude des marchés «
(catégorie 1 – Néophyte)

Conférencier : Philippe Cahen (ATDMF l’Analyse Technique du XXIème siècle)

Description : L’intérêt de l’ATDMF est de pouvoir anticiper le comportement de n’importe quel actif financier (contrats de taux, actions / indices, devises, matières premières) en moins d’une minute sur une durée comprise entre quelques secondes et éventuellement plusieurs mois. L’analyse porte soit sur l’opportunité de conserver un actif en portefeuille soit sur la détection d’une opportunité.

Biographie :

2005 – maintenant : Consultant indépendant en analyse technique

2005 – maintenant : webmaster du site analyse-technique-atdmf.fr

1990 – 2004 Responsable de l’analyse technique d’une banque française

1982 – 1990 Analyste technique dans différents organismes de gestion

1994 Diplôme STA (Society of Technical Analysis) Londres

1980 Ingénieur CNAM en organisation (analyse technique)

Auteur de 12 ouvrages originaux d’analyse technique (Français, anglais, espagnol)

Site ATDMF : analyse-technique-atdmf.fr

Buy Nasdaq 100 and forget the CAC 40

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Long term basis: technical recovery

On a yearly basis, stochastic and MACD could continue to be overbought for two periods or more. As long as MY (end of period) proves to be a resistance, the main trend is not bullish.

On a quarterly basis, LQ / UQ spread is maximal. Our stochastic could be oversold soon.

On a monthly basis, with a NEI as a status for our moving averages, a bullish trend is impossible.

Idea: cannot be bullish with a quarterly M23 trend on the down side

Bet: towards PM if MM fails as a resistance (e.o.p.).

R = MM (3713), MY (3849); S = PQ (2565)

Medium term: rise

On a weekly basis, a PEI is the status for our stochastic and MACD. A NEI is the status for our monthly time frame.

Idea: rise as long as our MACD is not overbought

Bet: nothing to do (buy US indices not the CAC 40).

R = MM (3713); S= MW (3236).

Short term: higher?

On a daily basis, UD / LD spread is not increasing. The move in progress is only a technical move without a bullish trend.

Idea: higher as long as MD = support

Bet: if you want to be long, buy US indices.

R = MM (3713); S= MD (3471).

Conclusion: technical recovery in progress.

10 Y T-Note: not yet bearish

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Long term: bullish

On a quarterly basis, a bullish no-crossover is in progress with our 7 / 23 quarters moving averages. The pattern in progress is a parallel one.

On a monthly basis, the spread for Bollinger bands is above a reference one. A new status could develop for TAM tools.

Idea: rise as long as MM = support

Bet: long term trend will be done next quarter with the new monthly TAM status.

R = 132.35 (Historical High), + + + ; S = MM (125.65)

Medium term (June 2012contract): out

On a weekly basis, a bearish no-crossover is the status for our MACD.

Idea: next month, a bearish pattern could develop

Bet: new bear trend if Bollinger spread increase.

R = MW (129.99) S = LW (127.96)

Short term: decline

On a daily basis, no PEI is in progress with TAM tools.

Idea: lower as long as our MACD is not oversold

Bet: a type I or II could develop.

R = MD (130.76); S = LW (127.96)

Conclusion: nothing to do this week.