Archives mensuelles : octobre 2009

S&P 500: toppish

Long term basis: Yearly bearish divergence with our stochastic and MACD => 500 as a first target

On a yearly basis, the status for our MACD is a bearish divergence. Furthermore, our MACD and stochastic are overbought at the same period: a sharp decline is expected. The collapse in progress could amplify. 500 and LY are our next supports.

On a quarterly basis, Bollinger bands spread could increase with a new decline. The bearish dynamic for our 7 quarters moving average is always in progress. A bearish A type crossover is in progress with our 7 / 23 quarters moving averages (in 2002, the crossover was a bearish B type). With a bearish non-crossover for our stochastic (end of Q4) a collapse towards LY is expected.

 On a monthly basis; a bearish parallel pattern is in progress as long as MM proves to be a resistance (end of period).

Idea: a yearly bearish divergence is the status for our stochastic and MACD. The correction of the XX century bullish trend is in progress => bear trend for one decade or more.

R = below MM (1052, at the close), MQ (1225);    S = LW (878), 666 (current low), 500, LY (189)

 

Medium term: higher?

On a weekly basis, Bollinger band spread is not minimal. A weak bullish non-crossover is in progress with our 7 / 23 weeks moving averages. As long as MW proves to be a support, a decline is only a technical move. A new bear trend will develop only with a bearish A type crossover for our 7 / 23 weeks moving averages. With an overbought status for our MACD, MW could be a first target.

Idea: moving averages signal is stronger than MACD one.

R = MQ (1225);    S= MW (1001)

 

Short term: without trend

On a daily basis; UD / LD spread is not minimal. LD should act as a main support. Above MD, UD is our next objective.

Idea: nothing to do.

 

10 Y T-Note: quarterly bearish divergence in progress

Long term: new bear trend?

On a yearly basis, Bollinger bands could be flat next period. The trend for our 7 / 23 years moving averages is slightly up. Our stochastic could be overbought at the end of this period with a bearish divergence. Below MY, the main trend will be bearish.

On a quarterly basis, for our stochastic the status is a bearish divergence (worst for the 30 Y US T-Bond contracts). With this hypothesis, MQ is our first support. LQ is flat.  PQ could act as a support.

On a monthly basis, UM / LM spread is near its maximal level. A bearish B type crossover could develop for our 7 / 23 months moving. A bearish non-crossover could be the status for our stochastic (and a bearish divergence is in progress). LM is our next objective.

Idea: with a close below MM, LM is our main target.

 R = UW (119.28), UM (124.96);    S = LM (111.09), PQ (110.61), MY (109.42)

 

Medium term: UW / LW spread is minimal

On a weekly basis, UW / LW spread is near its minimal level. Our 23 weeks moving average will continue to decline. UW is our main resistance.

Idea: as long as our MACD is not overbought, UW is our main target.

R = UW (119.28);      S = MW (117.2), LW (114.92)

Short term: neutral

ryer. st (22a, urice.yernault@skynet.be;frdg@skynet.be;mercier@skynet.be;annie.finfe@tiscali.be;colombana.jose

On a daily basis, UD / LD spread is maximal. Above MD, UD could be our next target..

Idea: bearish pre-parallel pattern if MD acts as a resistance.

 

R = MD (118.25), UD (119.74);       S = LD (117.17)

 

Conclusion: with a bearish divergence as a status for our quarterly stochastic, a similar pattern could develop on the yearly basis.

 

€ / $: higher next year

Long term: higher next year

On a yearly basis, Bollinger band spread is not minimal, LY could decline but UY is rising. Our 7 / 23 moving averages are up and our MACD will not be overbought before two periods or more (bullish non-crossover in progress). UQ could be a target.

On a quarterly basis, the trend for our 7 / 23 quarters moving averages is up.  Our stochastic and MACD will be neutral / oversold at the end of 2009. As long as MQ proves to be a support, UQ / PQ is our main target.

On a monthly basis, the UM / LM spread is maximal. A bullish A type crossover will be the next status for our 7 / 23 months moving averages. The status for our stochastic and MACD is oversold. A bullish non-crossover could be in progress and develop with our stochastic. UM is our main target.

Idea: a bullish non-crossover for our yearly stochastic

R = PQ (1.582), UM (1.6268);    S= MM (1.4252), MQ (1.3538)

 

Medium term: like a bullish parallel in progress

On a weekly basis, LW trend is flat. M23 will stay up for some periods. As long as MW proves to be a support, the main trend is up.

Idea: new bullish impulsive trend if PW = support

R = PQ (1.582), +++;     S = PW (1.4675), MW (1.4376)

 

Short term: neutrallrt term: no trend965Y (1.4243amilliales) enance personnelle.tellis

On a daily basis; UD / LD spread is wide. As long as MD proves to be a support, UD is our main resistance. Below MD, LD is our main target.

Idea: use bullish parallel rules.

R = UD (1.5063);   S = MD (1.4822, at the close), LD (1.4552)

 

Conclusion: UM is an objective for 2010.

 

Crude oil: rise on a short term basis

Yearly trend: bullish parallel pattern

On a yearly basis, MY acted as a support but T1 and PY price failed as supports. The status for our MACD is a bullish non-crossover. Our 7 / 23 years moving averages are always on a bull trend.

Idea: new bullish parallel pattern next period.

 

Long term: technical recovery

On a quarterly basis, the spread UQ / LQ is maximal but shrinking slowly. With our 7 / 23 quarters moving averages, a bearish B type crossover will develop. Stochastic and MACD are not oversold. With a close above MQ, UQ is our main objective.

On a monthly basis, the spread UM / LM is maximal. With our 7 / 23 months moving averages, a bullish A type crossover could develop.

Idea: a bullish non-crossover for our 7 / 23 quarters moving averages is not ruled out.

R= MM (79.91 at the close), UQ (112.49), +++;    S= PW (67.5)

 

Medium term: rise but not yet bullish

On a weekly basis, the level of volatility is not minimal. With our 7 / 23 weeks moving averages, a bullish non-crossover is in progress. Our stochastic and MACD are oversold.

Idea: with the monthly trend, nothing to do on a weekly basis.

R = MM (79.91 at the close), UQ (112.49);     S = MW (70.1)

 

Short term (nearest future contract): bullish parallel pattern

On a daily basis, Bollinger bands spread was not minimal when a bullish pseudo-T1 occurred. A bullish crossover PD / MD occurred with a nice dynamic for LD. As long as MD proves to be a support, a decline is only a technical move.

Idea: higher

R =  MM (79.91 at the close);     S = PD (77.23),MD (74.32)

 

 

Conclusion: less bullish than gold.

 

Edito : ATDMF 2010

L’ATDMF 2010 se démarque de la version précédente de l’ATDMF non pas par de nouveaux indicateurs ou paramétrages (c’est dérisoire), mais par une analyse prévisionnelle. C’est le moins que l’on puisse attendre d’une activité dont l’objet est d’anticiper le comportement à venir des cours (indices, actions, devises, contrats sur futures, matières premières aussi bien en intraday qu’à l’horizon de quelques semaines). 

Dans notre nouvelle approche, c’est uniquement ce qui va se passer à droite d’un graphique qui retient notre attention. Pour y parvenir, une connaissance du comportement de différents indicateurs est indispensable. Comme l’approche est visuelle, il s’agit bien d’analyse technique. De plus, pas besoin de sortir d’une école d’ingénieurs pour faire la démarche. Il suffit d’avoir une vision qui ne soit pas défaillante. Pour faciliter la prévision, l’opérateur utilisera des check-lists pour valider les différentes étapes de la prévision.

A titre d’exemple, comparez une analyse ATDMF et une analyse classique : nous évoquons un avenir proche pour anticiper un comportement plus éloigné. En analyse technique classique c’est le passé qui est utilisé pour anticiper l’avenir (ce qui pouvait se concevoir lorsque l’environnement était stable. Ce n’est plus le cas depuis de nombreuses années. A cette dernière approche il est possible d’appliquer la formule bien connue : garbage in, garbage out)….

Renseignements sur l’ATDMF 2010 : atdmfcahen@yahoo.fr

S&P 500: bullish

Long term basis: Yearly bearish divergence with our stochastic and MACD => 500 as a first target

On a yearly basis, the status for our MACD is a bearish divergence. Furthermore, our MACD and stochastic are overbought at the same period: a sharp decline is expected. The collapse in progress could amplify. 500 and LY are our next supports.

On a quarterly basis, Bollinger bands spread could increase with a new decline. The bearish dynamic for our 7 quarters moving average is always in progress. A bearish A type crossover is in progress with our 7 / 23 quarters moving averages (in 2002, the crossover was a bearish B type). With a bearish non-crossover for our stochastic (end of Q4) a collapse towards LY is expected.

 On a monthly basis; a bearish parallel pattern is in progress as long as MM proves to be a resistance (end of period).

Idea: a yearly bearish divergence is the status for our stochastic and MACD. The correction of the XX century bullish trend is in progress => bear trend for one decade or more.

R = below MM (1052, at the close), MQ (1225);    S = LW (872), 666 (current low), 500, LY (189)

 

Medium term: higher

On a weekly basis, Bollinger band spread is not minimal. A weak bullish non-crossover is in progress with our 7 / 23 weeks moving averages. As long as MW proves to be a support, a decline is only a technical move. A new bear trend will develop only with a bearish A type crossover for our 7 / 23 weeks moving averages.

Idea: bullish non-crossover for our MACD.

R = MQ (1225);    S= MW (995)

 

Short term: bullish (without ATDMF pattern)

On a daily basis; last week, Bollinger bands spread was not far away from its minimal level. No bullish ATDMF pattern could develop for the week ahead. As long as our MACD is not overbought, the rise in progress will continue.

Idea: bullish non-crossover for our MACD.

R = MQ (1225)                     S= MD (1067)

 

Conclusion: towards MQ (1225) or above, as long as our 7 / 23 days moving averages is not in a bearish A type crossover pattern.

 

 

Position:

Previous: buy a call 1200 or 1300 June or September 2010

In progress: hold long and add positions.

Next: see Conclusion.

 

Euro-Bund contract: quarterly bearish divergence (sto/MACD)?

Long term: LM as a target is not ruled out

On a quarterly basis, our 7 / 23 quarters moving averages are up. As long as PM proves to be a support, our stochastic and MACD will continue to rise. Otherwise, a bearish divergence will be the status for our stochastic and for our MACD. With this hypothesis, LM will be our main target for next year (a quarterly bearish divergence can’t develop with the 10 Y T-Note MACD).

On a monthly basis, a bullish bubble pattern is over since early 2009. A bearish non-crossover is the status for our stochastic. Below PM, LM is our next target.

Idea: with € / $ trend on a quarterly basis, our quarterly bearish divergence could be expected.

R= UW (123.36);   S= PM (117.23), LQ / LM (110.05)

           

Medium term: UW / LW spread is minimal

On a weekly basis (continuous contract), our 7 / 23 weeks moving averages are neutral. Our stochastic and MACD are overbought. This time frame is without trend. LW is our first target.

Idea: neutral

R = UW (123.36);   S = LW (119.22)

 

Short term: no main trend

On a daily basis (Dec. basis); UD / LD spread is far away from its minimal level. Our M23 will continue to rise and stochastic / MACD are overbought (bearish n on-crossover).  LD is our next objective.

Idea: towards a bearish pre-parallel pattern.

R =MD (121.94);   S = LD (120.86)

Conclusion: new bear trend below PM (117.23).

 

USD / CHF: below Historical low is expected.

Long term: lower

 On a yearly basis, UY / LY spread is increasing slowly. A bearish non-crossover is in progress for some periods with our 7 / 23 years moving averages. Our stochastic and MACD are overbought.

 On a quarterly basis, our 7 / 23 quarters moving averages are bearish and this trend will continue for some periods (bearish non-crossover next year). UQ is up and LQ is down. Historical low is our first objective.

On a monthly basis, Bollinger bands spread is wide. The status for our MACD is overbought. LM is a our first target.

Idea: bearish next year.

R = MM (1.0877);     S = LQ (0.9865), LM (0.9788), 0.9639

 

Medium term: like a bearish parallel pattern

On a weekly basis, UW / LW spread is not minimal but expending. The trend for our 7 / 23 weeks moving averages is bearish. As long as PW act as a resistance, the bear trend could amplify. Above MW, MM is our next resistance.

Idea: lower

R = PW (1.0386), MW (1.0595);    S = LM (0.9789), 0.9639

 

Short term: bearish parallel pattern in progress

On a daily basis, a bearish parallel pattern is in progress. A bearish crossover PD / MD with a dynamic for UD is not ruled out (if a bearish non-crossover develop with our stochastic / MACD).

Idea: add bearish position with a bearish non-crossover develop with our stochastic / MACD.

 

R = MD (1.0265);     S= 1, LM (0.9789), 0.9639

 

Conclusion: towards LM or below.

 

Crude oil is less bullish than gold

Yearly trend: bullish parallel pattern

On a yearly basis, MY acted as a support but T1 and PY price failed as supports. The status for our MACD is a bullish non-crossover. Our 7 / 23 years moving averages are always on a bull trend.

Idea: new bullish parallel pattern during the next period.

 

Long term: technical recovery

On a quarterly basis, the spread UQ / LQ is maximal but shrinking slowly. With our 7 / 23 quarters moving averages, a bearish B type crossover will develop. Stochastic and MACD are not oversold. With a close above MQ, UQ is our main objective.

On a monthly basis, the spread UM / LM is maximal. With our 7 / 23 months moving averages, a bullish A type crossover could develop.

Idea: a bullish non-crossover for our 7 / 23 quarters moving averages is not ruled out.

R= MM (79.61 at the close), UQ (112.46), +++;    S= PW (65.89)

 

Medium term: rise but not yet bullish

On a weekly basis, the level of volatility is not minimal. With our 7 / 23 weeks moving averages, a bullish non-crossover is in progress. Our stochastic and MACD are oversold.

Idea: with the monthly trend, nothing to do on a weekly basis.

R = MM (79.61 at the close), UQ (112.46);     S = MW (69.62)

 

Short term (nearest future contract): bullish without ATDMF pattern

On a daily basis, Bollinger bands spread was not minimal when a bullish pseudo-T1 occurred. A bullish non-crossover is in progress with our stochastic and our MACD. A bullish crossover PD / MD is in progress with a nice dynamic for LD. The status is a bullish trend for experimented traders and a bullish parallel pattern for experts.

Idea: higher

R =  MM (79.61 at the close), UQ (112.46);     S = MD (71.23)

  

Conclusion: less bullish than gold.