Long term basis: Yearly bearish divergence with our stochastic and MACD => 500 as a first target

On a yearly basis, the status for our MACD is a bearish divergence. Furthermore, our MACD and stochastic are overbought at the same period: a sharp decline is expected. The collapse in progress could amplify. 500 and LY are our next supports.

On a quarterly basis, Bollinger bands spread could increase with a new decline. The bearish dynamic for our 7 quarters moving average is always in progress. A bearish A type crossover is in progress with our 7 / 23 quarters moving averages (in 2002, the crossover was a bearish B type). With a bearish non-crossover for our stochastic (end of Q4) a collapse towards LY is expected.

 On a monthly basis; a bearish parallel pattern is in progress as long as MM proves to be a resistance (end of period).

Idea: a yearly bearish divergence is the status for our stochastic and MACD. The correction of the XX century bullish trend is in progress => bear trend for one decade or more.

R = below MM (1052, at the close), MQ (1225);    S = LW (872), 666 (current low), 500, LY (189)

 

Medium term: higher

On a weekly basis, Bollinger band spread is not minimal. A weak bullish non-crossover is in progress with our 7 / 23 weeks moving averages. As long as MW proves to be a support, a decline is only a technical move. A new bear trend will develop only with a bearish A type crossover for our 7 / 23 weeks moving averages.

Idea: bullish non-crossover for our MACD.

R = MQ (1225);    S= MW (995)

 

Short term: bullish (without ATDMF pattern)

On a daily basis; last week, Bollinger bands spread was not far away from its minimal level. No bullish ATDMF pattern could develop for the week ahead. As long as our MACD is not overbought, the rise in progress will continue.

Idea: bullish non-crossover for our MACD.

R = MQ (1225)                     S= MD (1067)

 

Conclusion: towards MQ (1225) or above, as long as our 7 / 23 days moving averages is not in a bearish A type crossover pattern.

 

 

Position:

Previous: buy a call 1200 or 1300 June or September 2010

In progress: hold long and add positions.

Next: see Conclusion.