Archives mensuelles : février 2012

€ / $: close short position above PW

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Long term: flat

On a yearly basis, Bollinger bands spread is not minimal. Our 7 / 23 years moving averages are slightly bullish. Stochastic is overbought. UY is our main resistance and MY is our main support.

On a quarterly basis, Bollinger spread is a reference one and UQ / LQ spread is expending. A bearish no-crossover is the status for our MACD. LQ is our first objective.

On a monthly basis, the UM / LM spread is above a reference one. TAM tools are neutral. LM is our main support and MM is our main resistance.

Idea: recovery above MM

Bet: next status for our monthly stochastic will give the long term trend.

R= MM (1.3659), MQ (1.3952);    S= LM (1.2587)

Medium term: rise above PW

On a weekly basis, our stochastic and MACD are oversold. Above PW, UW could be an objective.

Idea: the recovery in progress could continue for three weeks

Bet: higher.

R = PW (1.3486), MM (1.3659), MQ (1.3952), UW (1.4011);     S = MW (1.3304)

Short term: higher

On a daily basis, no PEI is in progress with TAM tools.

Idea: rise as long as our MACD is not overbought

Bet: PW could be a strong resistance.

R = PW (1.3486);   S = MD (1.324).

Conclusion: higher for some weeks if PW fails as a resistance.

Brent: higher

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Long term: rise but not bullish

On a monthly basis, a PEI is in progress with our moving averages.

Idea: towards UM or above

Bet: bullish with an oversold status for our stochastic.

R= UM (132.48);   S= MM (102.95)

Medium term: rise

On a weekly basis, the status for our stochastic is a PEI.

Idea: rise as long as our MACD is not overbought

Bet: WTI is more bullish.

R = UM (132.48);     S = MW (112.09)

Short term: parallel in progress

On a daily basis; a type II occurred.

Idea: use bullish parallel rules

Bet: higher.

R = UD (125.82);    S= PD (121.33), MD (118.11).

Conclusion: long.

S&P 500: bullish on a medium term basis with a type I next week.

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Long term basis: above PY

On a yearly basis, a bull trend for UY could emerge with higher prices. Above PY a new bull trend could be expected. Stochastic and MACD are not yet oversold. PY is a very strong resistance.

On a quarterly basis, LQ / UQ spread is maximal but shrinking. A PEI is in progress with our stochastic and our MACD. UQ is our next target if 1371 (current high) fails as a resistance.

On a monthly basis, Bollinger bands spread is a reference one. The status for our moving averages will be a bullish no-crossover.

Idea: focus on 1371

Bet: towards UY if PY fails as a resistance.

R = 1371, PY (1471.3), UY (1648);    S = MM (1238)

Medium term: bullish?

On a weekly basis, a PEI is in progress for each TAM tool. A type I is likely.

Idea: bullish with a type I

Bet: last opportunity to be long.

R = 1371;    S= MW (1269)

Short term: bullish parallel pattern

On a daily basis, a bullish parallel is in progress.

Idea: use bullish parallel rules

Bet: towards 1371 or above.

R = 1371;                   S=MD (1340)

Conclusion:  bullish as long as MD = support.

USD / JPY: bullish on a medium term basis

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Long term: lower?

On a yearly basis, Bollinger band spread could increase. A PEI is in progress with our moving averages.

On a quarterly basis, a type I could develop.

On a monthly basis, a bearish parallel pattern is in progress.

Idea: use monthly bearish parallels rules

Bet: above MM is not ruled out.

R= MM (80.71), PM (82.75);    S= LM (75)

Medium term: a type II could develop

On a weekly basis, prices are above UW and the trend for LW is bearish. A NEI is the status of the monthly time frame and no PEI is in progress with TAM tools.

Idea: higher as long as our MACD is not overbought

Bet: a type II is expected in early March.

R = MM (80.71);     S = MW (77.41)

Short term: today, a type II is in progress

On a daily basis a bullish parallel pattern is in progress.

Idea: use bullish parallel rules

Bet: towards MM or above.

R = MM (80.71);   S = MD (77.65)

Conclusion: a medium bull trend is not ruled out.

Crude oil: bullish for some months (quarters???)

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Long term: towards UM or above

On a quarterly basis, a PEI is in progress with our moving averages and our stochastic.

On a monthly basis, a PEI is in progress with our moving averages.

Idea: very bullish for some months (quarters?)

Bet: towards UM or above.

R= UM (111.58), UQ (122.21);   S= MM (91.76)

Medium term: a bullish pre-parallel occurred

On a weekly basis, a bullish parallel pattern is in progress.

Idea: UW is our first target

Bet: MW / PW is a strong support.

R = UW (106.77);     S = PW (95.84)

Short term: type I or II is expected

On a daily basis a type I or II is expected.

Idea: a type II is not ruled out

Bet: higher for a long time.

R = UD (101.45);    S= MD (99.06), LD (96.66).

Conclusion: long with a daily type II.

Actions : des profits faciles à réaliser

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Réponse personnalisée dans la journée.

S&P 500: bullish above 1371 (long term basis)

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Long term basis: up

On a yearly basis, Bollinger bands spread is shrinking slowly. Stochastic and MACD are not yet oversold.  As long as PY proves to be a resistance, MY could be an objective.

On a quarterly basis, LQ / UQ spread is maximal but shrinking. A bullish no-crossover is in progress with our stochastic and our MACD. UQ is our next target if 1371 (current high) fails as a resistance.

On a monthly basis, Bollinger bands spread is a reference one. The status for our moving averages could be a bullish no-crossover.

Idea: focus on 1371

Bet: towards UM or above.

R = 1371, UM (1406.7);    S = MM (1238)

Medium term: rise

On a weekly basis, a PEI is in progress for each TAM tool. Volatility is above a reference one.

Idea: rise as long as our MACD is not overbought

Bet: a type I could develop.

R = 1371;    S= MW/PW (1257)

Short term: type I

On a daily basis, a bullish parallel is in progress.

Idea: use bullish parallel rules

Bet: towards 1370 or above.

R = 1371;                   S=MD (1331)

Conclusion:  rise as long as MD = support.

JPY is weak

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Long term: lower

On a yearly basis, Bollinger band spread could be flat next period. A PEI is in progress with our moving averages.

On a quarterly basis, a type I could develop.

On a monthly basis, a bearish parallel pattern is in progress.

Idea: use monthly bearish parallels rules

Bet: focus on monthly bullish divergence.

R= MM (110.05);    S= LM (99.72)

Medium term: rise in progress

On a weekly basis, a close above MW is expected.

Idea: rise as long as our MACD is not overbought.

Bet: towards UW is not ruled out.

R = UW (108.61);     S = MW (102.92)

Short term: higher

On a daily basis; a PEI is in progress with our moving averages and our MACD.  A NEI is in progress with the weekly time frame.

Idea: rise as long as our MACD is not overbought

Bet: nothing to do on a daily basis.

R = UW (108.61);   S = MD (101.16)

Conclusion: technical recovery in progress.

Gold: could be weak

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Yearly trend: in 2012 /2013, qualification in a new bullish parallel pattern

On a yearly basis, a bullish parallel pattern is in progress with a strong dynamic for LY. A type II is expected at the end of 2012. On a global Historical basis, one of the most bullish pattern ever seen (since the end of XIX century).

Idea: focus on LY trend

Bet: S&P 500 rise in the 1986 / 2000 as a benchmark.

Long term: bullish parallel on a quarterly basis

On a quarterly basis, the pattern is a bullish parallel one. A type I could develop at the end of March 2012. The dynamic for our 7 / 23 quarters moving averages is strong and continue thru 2013.

On a monthly basis, a bullish parallel pattern is in progress but the status for our MACD is a NEI.

Idea: towards LM if MM fails as a support

Bet: a NEI could be the status for our monthly stochastic

R = rise > 2 years, +++ (could be above 5 000);    S = MM (1503.2), MQ (1122.8), LM (1151)

Medium term: technical recovery

On a weekly basis, UW / LW spread is above a reference one.

Idea: towards LW with an overbought status for our MACD

Bet: below MW is not ruled out.

R= UW (1793.6);   S = MW (1682.6), LW (1571.6).

Short term: towards LD?

On a daily basis, a PEI is in progress with our stochastic.

Idea: LD as a target if MD fails as a support

Bet: below MD.

R = UD (1774.3);   S = MD (1712.3), LD (1650.4).

Conclusion: a decline towards LW could develop.