Archives mensuelles : août 2010

Crude oil: bearish at the end of 2010?

Yearly trend: higher?

On a yearly basis, the pattern in progress looks like a bubble pattern. The current status for our MACD is a bullish no-crossover. Our 7 / 23 years moving averages are always on a bull trend.

Idea: end of the pattern when LY will be up

Bet: 87.15 (2010 high) is a far away strong resistance

 

Long term: bearish no-crossover status for our quarterly stochastic and MACD is expected

On a quarterly basis, the spread UQ / LQ is maximal. With our 7 / 23 quarters moving averages, a bullish pseudo no-crossover could develop this year. A bearish no-crossover will be the status for our stochastic and for our MACD at the end of the period. LQ will be our main target.

On a monthly basis, the spread UM / LM is shrinking but is far away from its minimal level. Our MACD could be overbought next month. As long as PM proves to be a support, a recovery could develop. Otherwise, LM will be our next objective.

Idea: main trend in early October

Bet: 82.97 (August high) is a strong resistance

R= 82.97, UM (93.97);    S= PM (60.44), LM (43.11)

 

Medium term: lower

On a weekly basis, the spread UW / LW is shrinking and not minimal. Our stochastic and MACD are overbought. With our 7 / 23 weekly moving averages, a bearish no-crossover is in progress. LW is our main target.

Idea: a bearish pre-parallel pattern could develop

Bet: nothing to do this week

R = MW (76.31);     S = LW (69.1)

Short term: bearish without pattern

On a daily basis, UD / LD spread is wide. A bearish no-crossover could be the status for our 7 / 23 days moving averages. Weakness could amplify until mid-September.

Idea: MD will act as a resistance

Bet: more bear strength below PD.

R = MD (76.74);          S = PD (70.76)

 

Conclusion: weakness on a medium term basis.

 

 

Bonne rentrée

Toujours plus nombreux. Depuis le début de l’année Google Analytics indique que les connexions se sont faites depuis 73 pays (liste à partir de Do you come from). Le taux d’augmentation de connexions est de + 20%.

Les prochaines semaines vont être passionnantes.

Pour en profiter pleinement, participez à nos formations ATDMF 2010.

Renseignements : atdmfcahen@yahoo.fr

Philippe Cahen

S & P 500: bear trend in the last quarter

Long term basis: Yearly bearish divergence with our stochastic and MACD => 500 as a first target

On a yearly basis, the status for our MACD is a bearish divergence. Furthermore, our MACD and stochastic are overbought at the same period: a sharp decline is expected. Below MY, a collapse could develop and amplify. 666, 500 and LY are our next supports.

On a quarterly basis, a bearish A type crossover is in progress with our 7 / 23 quarters moving averages (in 2002, the crossover was a bearish B type). MQ acts as a resistance. With a bearish no-crossover as a status for our MACD (end of period), LQ is our first support. If Bollinger bands spread increase, 666 (2009 low) will be our next target. The Collapse will continue as long as our MACD will be not oversold (end of period).

On a monthly basis, Bollinger bands spread is wide. UM should act as a strong resistance. The status for our 7 / 23 months moving averages is not yet a bullish A type. At the end of  August, the status for our stochastic and MACD will give the way (up or down) for the trend. Below MM, LM will be our main support.

Idea: not bullish as long as MQ proves to be a resistance

Bet: decline with a close below MM and bearish with a bearish no-crossover for our quarterly MACD.

R = MQ (1212), UM (1252);    S = MM (1009), LM (768), 666 (current low), 500, LY (277)

 

Medium term: UW / LW spread is maximal

On a weekly basis, the status for our 7 / 23 weeks moving averages is neutral but a bearish A type crossover could develop. Next week, the status for our stochastic and MACD could be overbought. LW is our main target. Otherwise, MW is an objective.

Idea: a bearish pre-parallel pattern could develop

Bet: choppy

 

R = MW (1105);    S= MM (1009)

 

Short term: lower

On a daily basis, Bollinger bands spread is expending. A bearish crossover PD / MD occurred with a bullish trend for UD. A bearish no-crossover is the status for our stochastic and MACD.  The bear move could amplify.

Idea: use bearish parallel rules

Bet: MM will act as a support.

 

R = MD (1093);                    S= MM (1009)

 

Conclusion:  next status will be a bearish no-crossover for our quarterly MACD….

 

10 Y T-Note: technical correction???

Long term: higher on a yearly basis

On a yearly basis, the status for our 7 / 23 years moving averages is a bullish no-crossover. The same status is in progress for our stochastic and MACD. The rise in progress should extend for some periods. Current Historical high is only our first objective.

On a quarterly basis, UQ / LQ spread is wide but increasing. A bullish no-crossover is in progress with our 7 / 23 quarters moving averages. Our stochastic and MACD were oversold at the same time. Current Historical high is only our first objective.

On a monthly basis, our stochastic and MACD are oversold. The spread for Bollinger bands spread is wide and LM is flat. 128.7 (Historical High) could be our next target. But, a technical correction towards MM is not ruled out with an overbought status for our stochastic.

Idea: bullish for some years                                                                                                                      

Bet: a technical correction until years‘s end could develop

 R = 128.7;    S = MM (119.47)

 

Medium term: bullish parallel pattern

On a weekly basis, our 7 / 23 weeks moving averages are up. A qualification in bullish parallel is in progress. The rise could amplify.

Idea: use bullish parallel rules

Bet: more decline below PW

R = 128.7;    S = PW (123.08)

 

 Short term: warning

On a daily basis, a bullish no-crossover occurred with PD. The status for our stochastic and MACD is a bearish no-crossover. As long as MD proves to be a support, a decline is only a technical move. Next target will be PW.

Idea: MD could fail as a support

Bet: in September a bullish no-crossover could develop with our 7 / 23 daily moving averages.

R = UD (126.94);    S = PD (125.3), MD (124.95)

 

Conclusion: a short term correction could develop soon (inflation???)

 

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Renseignements : atdmfcahen@yahoo.fr

€/ CHF: towards parity????

Long term: collapse in progress

 On a yearly basis, UY / LY spread is minimal. A bearish no-crossover is in progress for some periods with our 7 / 23 years moving averages. Our stochastic is overbought and the same status is expected for our MACD.

 On a quarterly basis, Bollinger Bands spread is expending dramatically. The trend for our stochastic, MACD and 7 / 23 quarters moving averages is bearish. As long as our MACD is not oversold, the collapse in progress will continue or expend.

On a monthly basis, the status for our stochastic and 7 / 23 monthly moving averages is a bearish no-crossover. Next period, a bearish crossover PM / MM will occur with an increase of UM / LM spread. A new bearish parallel pattern will be in hand.  

Idea: add short positions

Bet: yearly MACD will be overbought in early 2011

R = MW (1.3812);     S = -, –, — (towards 1.000???)

 

Medium term: Bearish parallel pattern

On a weekly basis, a bearish parallel pattern is in progress.

Idea: use bearish parallel rules. 

Bet: lower

R = MW (1.3812);    S = -, –

 

Short term: towards a bearish parallel qualification

On a daily basis, a bearish crossover PD / MD is expected with lower prices. A qualification into a bearish parallel pattern will be in hand. 

Idea: add short position with a new bearish pattern

Bet: a bearish no-crossover for our daily stochastic will add pressure on prices

R = MD (1.3511);     S= -

 

Conclusion: add new short position (weekly and monthly basis)

 

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Ce matin à 9h21 l’ATDMF donnait un signal de vente € / Y. Les personnes ayant suivi la formation intraday ont reçu un mail indiquant un signal sur le graphique 5 minutes. A 10h11  l’€ / CHF suivait le même chemin.

 

Renseignements atdmfcahen@yahoo.fr

 

Ph Cahen 10h14

Crude oil: weak or bearish?

Yearly trend: higher

On a yearly basis, the pattern in progress is a bullish parallel pattern. The status for our MACD is a bullish no-crossover. Our 7 / 23 years moving averages are always on a bull trend.

Idea: use bullish parallel rules

Bet: qualification into a bullish bubble?

 

Long term: bearish no-crossover status for our quarterly stochastic and MACD?

On a quarterly basis, the spread UQ / LQ is maximal. With our 7 / 23 quarters moving averages, a bullish pseudo no-crossover could develop this year. Without a bearish no-crossover as a status for our stochastic, a rise will develop and UM will be a target. Meanwhile, a bearish no-crossover could be the status for our stochastic and this status is in progress for our MACD. At the end of next month, LQ will be our main target.

On a monthly basis, the spread UM / LM is shrinking but is far away from its minimal level. Our MACD could be overbought next month. As long as MM proves to be a support, UM is our main target.

Idea: without strong trend

Bet: monthly Bollinger bands could stabilize

R= UM (93.98);    S= MM (68.55), PM (60.44), LM (43.10)

 

Medium term: Bollinger bands spread is flat

On a weekly basis, the spread UW / LW is shrinking and not minimal. Our stochastic and MACD are overbought. With our 7 / 23 weekly moving averages, a bearish no-crossover could develop next week.

Idea: towards LW, as long as MW proves to be a resistance

Bet: nothing to do this week

R = MW (76.75);     S = LW (68.81)

 

 

Short term: bearish without pattern

On a daily basis, UD / LD spread is increasing. A bearish pre-parallel pattern could develop next week.

Idea: MD will act as a resistance

Bet: drop with stock indices….

R = MD (78.01);          S = LD (72.32)

 

Conclusion: neutral, on a medium term basis, as long as LW proves to be a support.

 

Edito : réagissez

à notre précédent article : analyse technique, analyse fondamentale et ATDMF.

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Bon week-end et bons trades.