Archives pour la catégorie Devises

€ / $: some technical analysts are bullish but ATDMF is bearish

Long term: weak

On a yearly basis, Bollinger bands spread will stay flat. Stochastic and MACD will be overbought at the end of the year. MY is our first target.

On a quarterly basis, a bearish no-crossover could be the status for each TAM tool. LQ is our first objective.

On a monthly basis, the UM / LM spread is shrinking and could be a reference one. A PEI could develop with our monthly moving averages.

Idea: LM is our first target if a PEI is the next status for our monthly moving averages.

Bet: lower as long as MM proves to be a resistance.

R= MM (1.3128);    S= MY / LM (1.2201), PY (1.0655)

Medium term: without main trend

On a weekly basis, UW / LW spread is a reference one.

Idea: weekly MACD is our leading indicator

Bet: lower as long as MW= resistance.

R = MW (1.3145);     S = LW (1.2720).

Short term: lower

On a daily basis, a PEI is the status for our daily moving averages.

Idea: towards LW if PD fails as a support

Bet: lower as long as MD act as a resistance.

R = MD (1.2995);        S = LW (1.2720).

Conclusion: weak as long as MW= resistance.

€ / GBP: weak

Long term: towards UM

On a yearly basis a bullish no-crossover is in progress for our stochastic and our MACD.

On a quarterly basis, next period TAM tools could be up.

On a monthly basis, UM / LM spread is above a reference one. UM is a strong resistance. Our stochastic could be overbought within two or three periods.

Idea: UM is a strong resistance

Bet: only a technical recovery in progress.

R= UM (.8868);    S= MM (.8311)

Medium term: toppish

On a weekly basis, no parallel is in progress.

Idea: MACD is our leading indicator

Bet: towards MW is expected.

R= UW (8847);   S= PW (.8576), MW (.8322).

Short term: flat

On a daily basis, Bollinger bands are flat.

Idea: daily stochastic is our leading indicator

Bet: wait.

R= UD (.8748);   S= LD (.8587)

Conclusion: weak if PW fails as a support.

GBP / USD:lower

Long term: higher for some quarters

On a yearly basis, TAM tools are weak. LY is our main target.

On a quarterly basis, Bollinger bands spread is shrinking but the level is above a reference one. A bearish no-crossover could develop with our moving averages.

On a monthly basis, the UM / LM spread is expending with a close below LM.  TAM tools are bearish without a PEI.

Idea: monthly MACD is our leading indicator

Bet: lower for some quarters.

R= MM (1.5804);    S= LQ (1.3793)

Medium term: type II in progress

On a weekly basis, a type II will be in hand next Friday.

Idea: use parallel rules

Bet: towards LQ.

R = PW (1.5821);     S = LQ (1.3793).

Short term: bearish parallels

On a daily basis, a bearish parallels pattern is in progress.

Idea: use parallel rules

Bet: lower.

R = MD (1.5357);        S = LD (1.4893).

Conclusion: lower.

EUR / GBP: add long position?

Long term: weak

On a yearly basis, Bollinger bands spread is above a reference one. Moving averages are up and stochastic is neutral.

On a quarterly basis, Bollinger bands will be flat. Stochastic and MACD are not yet oversold. MQ is our main resistance.

On a monthly basis, stochastic and MACD are oversold and M23 will continue to decline.

Idea: as long as the trend for our monthly moving averages is against the MACD one, no main trend will emerge

Bet: nothing to do.

R= MQ (.8541), UQ (.9305);    S= MM (.833), LM (.77)

Medium term: rise

On a weekly basis, with a NEI on the monthly basis, no bull market could be in progress.

Idea: weekly MACD is our leading indicator

Bet: towards .8541.

R= MQ (.8541);     S = MW (.8105).

Short term: rise

A type II is in progress.

Idea: use parallel rules

Bet: add long position.

R = MQ (.8541);        S = MD (.8239).

Conclusion: long with a PEI as a status for our daily stochastic.

€ / $: higher?

Long term: above MM at the close?

On a yearly basis, TAM tools are without NEI / PEI.

On a quarterly basis, a bearish no-crossover is in progress for our moving averages. Our stochastic could be oversold. MQ is a strong resistance.

On a monthly basis, the UM / LM spread is above a reference one. Stochastic and MACD are oversold and M23 will continue to decline.

Idea: above MQ, PQ will be our main objective

Bet: with a close above MM, the rise in progress will continue for several months.

R= MM (1.3243), MQ (1.371), PQ (1.4374);    S= MW (1.2996).

Medium term: trading range

On a weekly basis, a bullish no-crossover is in progress with our moving averages and with our MACD.

Idea: MACD is our leading indicator

Bet: not bearish as long as MW= support.

R = 1.3404 (current high);     S = MW (1.2998).

Short term: recovery

On a daily basis, a bullish no-crossover could be the status for our stochastic and MACD. With this hypothesis, a bull trend will develop.

Idea: MACD is our leading indicator

Bet: towards LD if MD fails as a support.

R = UD (1.3372);        S = MACD overbought, MD (1.3199), LD (1.3026).

Conclusion: higher for several months with a monthly close above MM.

USD / JPY: higher

Long term: above MQ?

On a yearly basis, Bollinger bands spread will stay flat. A bearish no-crossover is the status for our moving averages but our MACD is oversold.

On a quarterly basis, the trend for M23 is bearish. A bullish no-crossover is the status for our stochastic. A recovery towards or above MQ is expected.

On a monthly basis, the UM / LM spread is expending with a close above UM and a NEI is in progress on the upper time frame.

Idea: monthly MACD is our leading indicator

Bet: above MQ without a bullish trend.

R= MQ (88.01), 100, MY (105.74);    S= MM (79.7)

Medium term: type II in progress

On a weekly basis, a type II is in progress. LW trend is bearish with a bullish T9.

Idea: use parallel rules

Bet: towards 100 or above.

R = MQ (88.01);     S = PW (82.74).

Short term: type III in progress

On a daily basis, a type III is in progress.

Idea: use parallel rules

Bet: higher.

R = MQ (88.01);        S = MD (85.65).

Conclusion: towards MQ or higher.

€ could be strong for some months

Long term: towards PQ?

On a yearly basis, TAM tools are without NEI / PEI.

On a quarterly basis, a bearish no-crossover is in progress for our moving averages. Our stochastic is oversold. MQ is a strong resistance.

On a monthly basis, the UM / LM spread is above a reference one. Stochastic and MACD are oversold and M23 will continue to decline.

Idea: above MQ, PQ will be our main objective

Bet: with a close above MM, rise will continue for several months.

R= MM (1.3244), MQ (1.3672), PQ (1.4374);    S= MW (1.2927).

Medium term: higher?

On a weekly basis, a bullish no-crossover is in progress with our moving averages.

Idea: weekly MACD is our leading indicator

Bet: MM (end of period) could fail as a resistance.

R = MM (1.3244);     S = MW (1.2927).

Short term: higher as long as MD= support

On a daily basis, a bullish no-crossover is the status for our moving averages. Our stochastic and MACD could be oversold together.

Idea: bullish if our MACD is oversold within one day

Bet: 1.3308 (current high) will fail as a resistance.

R = 1.3308;        S = MD (1.3142).

Conclusion: higher for several months with a monthly close above 1.3244.

Focus on USD / JPY

 

Long term: towards MQ

On a yearly basis, Bollinger bands spread will stay flat. A bearish no-crossover is the status for our moving averages.

On a quarterly basis, our moving averages are down. Stochastic and MACD are oversold. A recovery towards MQ is not ruled out.

On a monthly basis, the UM / LM spread is minimal. Stochastic and MACD will continue to rise. With a NEI on the quarterly time frame, 84.18 (March 2012 high) is our first objective.

Idea: monthly stochastic is our leading indicator

Bet: above UM without a bullish trend.

R= UM (82.6), 84.18, MQ (88.62);    S= MM (79.24)

Medium term: higher but not yet bullish

On a weekly basis, Bollinger spread is a reference one. UM is a NEI.

Idea: weekly MACD is our leading indicator

Bet: a type I or II is likely.

R = UM (82.6);     S = MW (79.17).

Short term: higher

On a daily basis, a type I could develop before the end of the week (needs an oversold status for stochastic and MACD)

Idea: if a type I failed, MD will be our main target

Bet: MD is a very strong support.

R = UM (82.6);        S = MD (80.86).

Conclusion: towards UM or higher.

USD / JPY: higher

Long term: weak

On a yearly basis, Bollinger bands spread will stay flat. A bearish no-crossover is the status for our moving averages.

On a quarterly basis, our moving averages are down. Stochastic and MACD are oversold. A recovery towards MQ is not ruled out.

On a monthly basis, the UM / LM spread is minimal. Stochastic and MACD will continue to rise. With a NEI on the quarterly time frame, 84.18 (March 2012 high) could be an objective.

Idea: Stochastic as a leading indicator

Bet: above UM without a bullish trend.

R= UM (82.61), 84.18;    S= MM (79.23)

Medium term: higher but not bullish

On a weekly basis, Bollinger spread is a reference one. UM is a NEI.

Idea: weekly MACD is our leading indicator

Bet: higher for some periods.

R = UM (82.61);     S = MW (79.01).

Short term: higher

On a daily basis, UD / LD spread is expending. A PEI is the status for our moving averages.

Idea: daily MACD is our leading indicator

Bet: long (intraday basis).

R =  UM (82.61);        S = MD (80.25).

Conclusion: towards UM or higher.