Archives mensuelles : mars 2010

Gold: not bullish on a medium / short term basis

Yearly trend: in 2012 /2013, qualification in a new bullish parallel pattern

On a yearly basis, a bullish parallel pattern is in progress with a strong dynamic for MY. The dynamic for each band is very strong. PY will cross MY in more than one period. On a Historical basis, one of the most bullish patterns ever seen (since the end of XIX century). 

Idea: bullish no-crossover for our stochastic.

Bet: S&P 500 in the 80 as a benchmark.

 

Long term: quarterly bullish parallel pattern wards LM (49.90ng as MQ (44.60

On a quarterly basis, the pattern is a bullish parallel one. The dynamic for our 7 / 23 quarters moving averages is strong. The status in progress for our MACD is a bullish no-crossover.

On a monthly basis, our 7 / 23 months moving averages are up with a bullish no-crossover in progress. A bearish divergence is in progress with our stochastic. Same status is not ruled out for our MACD. But a bullish no-crossover could develop too. As long as a bullish no-crossover could emerge as a status for our MACD, MM is a strong support.

Idea:  as long as monthly M23 is up, a monthly decline is “only” a technical move

Bet: MM will act as a support.

R = rise > 2 years, +++ (could be above 2 000);    S = MM (956.54)

 

Medium term: without trend

On a weekly basis, Bollinger bands spread is minimal. A bullish no-crossover is the status for our moving averages. But a bearish no-crossover is in progress with our MACD. 

Idea: Bollinger bands are our main targets.

Bet: our MACD will be oversold soon.

 

R = UW (1167.3);       S = LW (1063.8)

 

Short term: soon, Bollinger Bands spread could be at its minimal level

On a daily basis; as long as our 23 days moving averages is up, LD could act as a support. With the weekly trend, no bearish pattern could emerge.

Idea: UD as a target if MD fails as a resistance

Bet: none.

 

R = MD (1113.9), UD (1140.2)          S = LD (1087.6)

 

Conclusion: nothing to do on a medium term basis.

 

 

CAC 40: higher

Long term basis: technical recovery in progress

On a yearly basis, the status for our stochastic is overbought. Our 7 / 23 years moving averages are up but have a look on  - 8, – 7 , -6  prices).

On a quarterly basis, Bollinger bands are flat but LQ / UQ spread could / will increase with lower prices. The bearish B type crossover could be modified into a bearish A type crossover. Within two periods, a bearish no-crossover could be the status for our MACD.

On a monthly basis; with our 7 / 23 months moving averages, a bearish pseudo no-crossover is not ruled out. With this hypothesis, a bearish no-crossover will be the status for our quarterly MACD. As long as our MACD is not overbought, a bullish pre-parallel pattern could develop.

Idea: bullish no-crossover with our monthly stochastic

Bet: towards UM

R = UM (4360);    S = MM (3498), LM (2637)

 

Medium term: higher

On a weekly basis, a bullish A type crossover is the status for our 7 / 23 weeks moving averages. With the monthly trend no bear pattern could develop. MW is our first support. The rise in progress will continue as long as our MACD is not overbought.

Idea: towards UM

Bet: no bear trend as long as LW proves to be a support (end of period)

 

R = UW (4048), UM (4360)               S= MW (3825), LW (3602)

  

Short term: rise

On a daily basis, a bullish no-crossover is in progress with our 7 / 23 days moving averages. As long as MD proves to be a support, the rise in progress could continue.

Idea: end of the rise if M23 trend is down

Bet: choppy

R = UW (4048);     S= MD (3891), LD (3745)

 

Conclusion: UM is a very strong resistance

 

10Y T-Note: bear trend

Long term: PQ is a strong support

On a yearly basis, Bollinger bands spread is shrinking. The trend for our 7 / 23 years moving averages is slightly up. Our stochastic is oversold with a weak bullish no-crossover.

On a quarterly basis, LQ could turn up but the UQ / LQ spread is wide. A bullish A type crossover is in progress with our 7 / 23 quarters moving averages. Our stochastic and MACD are overbought with a bearish divergence for our stochastic. As long as PQ proves to be a support, the decline in progress is only a technical move.

On a monthly basis, a bearish divergence is in progress for our stochastic with a bearish no-crossover for stochastic and MACD. With UM / LM spread, LM / PQ is our main objective.

Idea: MM is our main resistance

Bet:

 R = MM (118.62);    S = PQ (111.7), MY (110.35)

 

Medium term: lower

On a weekly basis, Bollinger bands spread is not far away from its minimal level. The pattern in progress for our 7 / 23 weeks moving averages is a bearish no-crossover. A bearish trend is expected without a bearish pattern.

Idea: MW is a strong resistance

Bet: bearish as long as our MACD is not oversold

R = MW (117.59);      S = LW (115.31), LM (112.61)

 

Short term: bearish

On a daily basis, Bollinger bands spread is at its minimal level. A bearish no-crossover is in progress with our 7 / 23 days moving averages. . A bearish trend is expected without a bearish pattern.

Idea: MD is a strong resistance

Bet: buy short position

R = MD (117.13);       S = LW (115.31)

 

Conclusion: at least, lower until the end of 2010.

 

€ / $: it’s spring time…

Long term: below PM soon

On a yearly basis, Bollinger band spread is not minimal. Our 7 / 23 moving averages will be without main trend. Our stochastic could be overbought next period. MY is more likely than UY.

On a quarterly basis, the status for our stochastic and MACD is a bearish no-crossover. Next pattern for our 7 / 23 quarters moving averages could be a bearish A type crossover. As long as MQ proves to be a support (end of period), the decline in progress is only a technical move. Below MQ (at the close), LQ will be our main target.

On a monthly basis, the UM / LM spread was maximal but shrinking. A bearish A type crossover will be the next status for our 7 / 23 months moving averages. The status for our stochastic and MACD is overbought. If PM fails as a support, LM / MY is our next target.

Idea: strong bear trend below PM

Bet: below PM before the end of Q1.

R = MM (1.3882);    S= PM (1.3314), LM (1.2527)

 

Medium term: bearish parallel patternOn a weekly basis, a bearish parallel qualification is in progress with bearish no-crossover of PW. 

Idea: use bearish parallel rules

Bet: towards LW

R = PW (1.3834);     S = PM (1.3314), LW (1.3148)

 

Short term:

 

Available on request at: atdmfcahen@yahoo.fr

Indices boursiers: hausse pour un mois, ou plus ?

 

Le potentiel de hausse restant  est de 5 à 10 % selon les différents indices. La probabilité que ce mouvement se fasse dans les 4 prochaines semaines est très importante selon les critères de l’ATDMF 2010. A ce niveau, il y a une résistance technique puissante. Cependant, ceci ne signifie pas qu’elle soit infranchissable. Contrairement à une majorité d’analystes techniques qui prônent l’apocalypse pour 2010, nous pensons qu’il convient d’être long. La marge restante, par rapport à nos objectifs, permettant de solder et d’inverser les positions si la résistance ne parvient pas à être dépassée. 

Dans le contexte actuel, la prise de position avec effet de levier, devrait se montrer particulièrement rémunératrice. Ce qui permettra de manoeuvrer encore plus facilement à l’approche de notre résistance.

 

Renseignements sur nos formations ATDMF 2010 : atdmfcahen@yahoo.fr

Quelques places disponibles pour la session du 27 au 29 mars.

10 Y T-Note: without trend

Long term: PQ is a strong support

On a yearly basis, Bollinger bands spread is shrinking. The trend for our 7 / 23 years moving averages is slightly up. Our stochastic is oversold with a weak bullish no-crossover.

On a quarterly basis, LQ could turn up but the UQ / LQ spread is wide. A bullish A type crossover is in progress with our 7 / 23 quarters moving averages. Our stochastic and MACD are overbought with a bearish divergence for our stochastic. As long as PQ proves to be a support, the decline in progress is only a technical move.

On a monthly basis, a bearish divergence is in progress for our stochastic with a bearish no-crossover for stochastic and MACD. LM / PQ is our main objective.

Idea: MM is our main resistance

Bet: a new bearish no-crossover could develop with our monthly stochastic

 R = MM (118.65);    S = PQ (111.7), MY (110.37)

 

Medium term: without trend

On a weekly basis, Bollinger bands are flat and the spread is not far away from its minimal level. The pattern in progress for our 7 / 23 weeks moving averages is a bearish no-crossover. A bullish no-crossover is in progress with our stochastic.  MW could act as a resistance.

Idea: LW is a strong support.

Bet: PW is a strong resistance

R = MW (117.68), PW (119.03);      S = LW (115.46)

 

Short term: neutral

On a daily basis, Bollinger bands spread is at its minimal level. With the weekly trend, Bollinger bands are our main targets.

Idea: nothing to do

Bet: no

R = UD (118.03);       S = LD (116.56)

 

Conclusion: flat

 

Edito € / $ : une tendance

D’ici peu, la tendance à moyen terme (quelques semaines / mois) sera gravée dans le marbre. A ce jour, il n’est pas possible d’identifier qui sera le vainqueur. Des signaux objectifs spécifiques à l’ATDMF seront bientôt disponibles.

Participez à nos formations ATDMF pour apprendre à anticiper le comportement des marchés.

Renseignements sur les dates personnalisées des prochaines formations : atdmfcahen@yahoo.fr

€ / $: soon, a medium term trend

   Long term: lower

On a yearly basis, Bollinger band spread is not minimal, Bollinger bands could be flat. Our 7 / 23 moving averages will be without main trend. Our stochastic could be overbought next period.

On a quarterly basis, the status for our stochastic and MACD is a bearish no-crossover. Next pattern for our 7 / 23 quarters moving averages could be a bearish A type crossover. As long as MQ proves to be a support (end of period), the decline in progress is only a technical move. Below MQ (at the close), LQ will be our main target.

On a monthly basis, the UM / LM spread was maximal but shrinking. A bearish A type crossover will be the next status for our 7 / 23 months moving averages. The status for our stochastic and MACD is overbought. A bullish no-crossover is in progress with PM. With a new high next month (Vs this month), a rise will develop.

Idea: quarterly bearish no-crossover Vs monthly bullish no-crossover = without clear trend until June

Bet: LM / MY as a target if PM fail as a support.

R = MM (1.3882);    S= MQ (1.3567), PM (1.3314), LM (1.2527)

 

Medium term: bearish parallel pattern

On a weekly basis, a bearish parallel qualification is in progress. 

Idea: use bearish parallel rules

Bet: towards MW if PW fails as a resistance

R = PW (1.3921), MW (1.425);     S = MD (1.3621)

  

Short term: UD / LD spread is minimallrt term: no trend965Y (1.4243amilliales) enance personnelle.tellis

On a daily basis, a bullish A type crossover is in progress with our 7 / 23 days moving averages. A bullish no-crossover is the status for our stochastic and our MACD is oversold. As long as our MACD is not overbought, the recovery in progress will continue.

Idea: no bullish T1 could develop with weekly trend

Bet: end of recovery below MD

R = PW (1.3921);   S = MD (1.3621)

 

Conclusion: towards MW above PW, otherwise towards LM below PM.