Archives mensuelles : novembre 2012

S&P 500: at the close, focus on MW

Long term basis: choppy in 2013

On a yearly basis, UY could rise at the close. PY failed as a resistance. Stochastic could be oversold at the end of the period. Our moving averages could continue to rise. UY is our main target.

On a quarterly basis, Bollinger Bands spread is maximal but is shrinking slowly. With an overbought status for our stochastic, UQ will be the maximal target.

On a monthly basis, stochastic and MACD could be overbought together in the same period.

Idea: monthly MACD is our leading indicator

Bet: with a no-crossover status for our monthly stochastic and MACD, 2013 will be a bullish year.

R = UM (1477.5); S = MM (1323.9), LM (1170)

Medium term: focus on moving averages status

On a weekly basis, Bollinger bands spread is a reference one. Focus on moving averages crossover: a type A or B could develop. PW has a bearish trend.

Idea: UW as a target with a bullish no-crossover for our moving averages and otherwise LW as an objective

Bet: wait for the next moving averages status.

R = UW (1472); S= LW (1353)

Short term: towards UD

On a daily basis, Bollinger Bands spread is maximal. TAM tools are up without PEI. UD is our maximal target.

Idea: use our daily stochastic as a leading indicator

Bet: long (intraday basis).

R= UD (1435.6); S= MD (1393.2), LD (1350.9)

Conclusion: towards UW if MW (1412.9) fails as a resistance

US 10 Y T-Note: higher

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Long term: higher

On a yearly basis: Bands are expending and a PEI is in progress for each component of TAM tools. The up trend should continue for two periods or more.

On a quarterly basis, a bullish parallel pattern is in progress.

On a monthly basis, a type I is in progress.

Idea: use monthly bullish parallel rules

Bet: Historical new high is not ruled out.

R= PM (135.33), UM (137.91); S= MM (129.82)

Medium term: rise

On a weekly basis, Bollinger Bands spread is a reference one. A PEI is the status for our stochastic and MACD. A NEI is in progress on the weekly unit.

Idea: use our MACD as a leading indicator

Bet: towards UW (or higher) as long as MW= support (at the close).

R= UW (134.73); S= MW (133.34)

Short term: rise

On a daily basis; a PEI will develop with our moving averages. Stochastic and MACD will be oversold soon. MD is not flat.

Idea: add long position (intraday basis)

Bet: towards UD or above.

R= UD (134.43); S= MD (133.57)

Conclusion: rise

Focus on USD / JPY

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Long term: towards MQ

On a yearly basis, Bollinger bands spread will stay flat. A bearish no-crossover is the status for our moving averages.

On a quarterly basis, our moving averages are down. Stochastic and MACD are oversold. A recovery towards MQ is not ruled out.

On a monthly basis, the UM / LM spread is minimal. Stochastic and MACD will continue to rise. With a NEI on the quarterly time frame, 84.18 (March 2012 high) is our first objective.

Idea: monthly stochastic is our leading indicator

Bet: above UM without a bullish trend.

R= UM (82.6), 84.18, MQ (88.62); S= MM (79.24)

Medium term: higher but not yet bullish

On a weekly basis, Bollinger spread is a reference one. UM is a NEI.

Idea: weekly MACD is our leading indicator

Bet: a type I or II is likely.

R = UM (82.6); S = MW (79.17).

Short term: higher

On a daily basis, a type I could develop before the end of the week (needs an oversold status for stochastic and MACD)

Idea: if a type I failed, MD will be our main target

Bet: MD is a very strong support.

R = UM (82.6); S = MD (80.86).

Conclusion: towards UM or higher.

Noël avec ATDMF

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A l’occasion de Noël ; nous proposons pour la personne qui s’inscrira, en premier, une formation de base au prix exceptionnel de 1 600 €.

Renseignements et conditions en laissant vos coordonnées sur :

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CAC 40: technical recovery

2 réponses

Long term basis: lower

On a yearly basis, stochastic and MACD could continue to be overbought for two periods or more. As long as MY (end of period) proves to be a resistance, the main trend is not bullish.

On a quarterly basis, LQ / UQ spread is shrinking. A PEI is in progress with our moving averages.

On a monthly basis; for M23, the trend is bearish. Our stochastic and MACD are oversold. PM could be the main resistance.

Idea: not bullish as long as our monthly M23 is not up

Bet: higher if 3601 fails as a resistance (end of period).

R= PM (3588), 3600.8 (March 2012 high), MQ (3647), MY (3709); S= MM (3393), LM (2782)

Medium term: without trend

On a weekly basis, TAM tools are neutral.

Idea: below MW, LW is our main objective

Bet: weak as long as our weekly stochastic is not oversold.

R= UW (3608); S= MW (3405), LW (3202).

Short term: higher without a bullish trend

On a daily basis, UD / LD spread is expending. No PEI could develop with TAM tools.

Idea: daily MACD is our leading indicator

Bet: nothing to do.

R= MQ (3647); S= MD (3433).

Conclusion: nothing to do for some weeks.

USD / JPY: higher

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Long term: weak

On a yearly basis, Bollinger bands spread will stay flat. A bearish no-crossover is the status for our moving averages.

On a quarterly basis, our moving averages are down. Stochastic and MACD are oversold. A recovery towards MQ is not ruled out.

On a monthly basis, the UM / LM spread is minimal. Stochastic and MACD will continue to rise. With a NEI on the quarterly time frame, 84.18 (March 2012 high) could be an objective.

Idea: Stochastic as a leading indicator

Bet: above UM without a bullish trend.

R= UM (82.61), 84.18; S= MM (79.23)

Medium term: higher but not bullish

On a weekly basis, Bollinger spread is a reference one. UM is a NEI.

Idea: weekly MACD is our leading indicator

Bet: higher for some periods.

R = UM (82.61); S = MW (79.01).

Short term: higher

On a daily basis, UD / LD spread is expending. A PEI is the status for our moving averages.

Idea: daily MACD is our leading indicator

Bet: long (intraday basis).

R = UM (82.61); S = MD (80.25).

Conclusion: towards UM or higher.

WTI: higher

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Long term: weak

On a quarterly basis, our MACD is the leading indicator.

On a monthly basis, UM / LM spread is above a reference one. A bearish no-crossover is the status for our stochastic and MACD.

Idea: use our MACD as a leading indicator

Bet: LM is our first support.

R= MM (95.06); S= LM (79.43)

Medium term: weak

On a weekly basis, Bollinger Bands spread is a reference one. TAM tools are neutral.

Idea: stochastic and MACD could be oversold (rise) or a bearish no-crossover could develop (bearish)

Bet: use our stochastic as a leading indicator.

R = MW (91.17); S = LW (83.68)

Short term: higher without a bullish trend

On a daily basis, a PEI is the status for our stochastic and MACD. NO PEI could develop on a weekly basis.

Idea: use our MACD as a leading indicator.

Bet: higher.

R = MW (91.17); S= MD (86.15)

Conclusion: higher without a bullish trend.

CAC 40: (only) a technical correction?

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Long term basis: lower

On a yearly basis, stochastic and MACD could continue to be overbought for two periods or more. As long as MY (end of period) proves to be a resistance, the main trend is not bullish.

On a quarterly basis, LQ / UQ spread is shrinking. A PEI is in progress with our moving averages.

On a monthly basis; for M23, the trend is bearish. Our stochastic and MACD are oversold. PM could be the main resistance.

Idea: not bullish as long as our monthly M23 is not up

Bet: higher if 3601 fails as a resistance (end of period).

R= 3600.8 (March 2012 high), MQ (3647); S= LM (2781)

Medium term: towards LW

On a weekly basis, a bearish no-crossover is the status for our stochastic and MACD.

Idea: below MW, LW is our main objective

Bet: lower as long as our weekly stochastic is not oversold.

R= PW (3565); S= MW (3394), LW (3175).

Short term: lower without a bearish trend

On a daily basis, UD / LD spread is a reference one. A NEI is in progress on the weekly time frame.

Idea: daily MACD is our leading indicator

Bet: nothing to do.

R= MD (3438); S= MW / LD (3382), LW (3175).

Conclusion: nothing to do for some weeks.

Indices : 2013 pourrait être tragique

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atdmfahen@yahoo.fr