Archives mensuelles : décembre 2010

L’analyse technique en France : La Honte

 

Le 10 Year Treasury Note ???

 Votre site préféré en parle t’il dans sa rubrique taux; lors d’une formation pour débutants, le professeur a-t-il insisté sur son importance ?

A ma connaissance, aucun site Internet en français ne possède une rubrique taux d’intérêts et aucun cabinet d’analyse technique en dehors du notre ne publie d’analyse sur ce produit.

C’est une grave lacune car le 10 Y T-Note est la référence mondiale pour anticiper l’évolution des taux d’intérêts à long terme. Dans toutes les salles de marchés, à travers le monde, les opérateurs (quels que soient les produits traités par ailleurs) ont les yeux rivés sur l’évolution de ce produit (ce qui en dit long sur le professionnalisme de nos chers analystes).

 Pour mesurer l’étendue de votre ignorance, faisons la comparaison suivante :

Un banquier vous présente la monnaie €. Pour se faire, il vous montre les pièces de 1, 2, 5, 10, 20 et 50 cent puis les billets de 5, 10 et 20 €.

Légitimement, vous pensez que pour régler un montant de 1 000 ou 10 000 € il vous faudra utiliser les pièces ou les billets présentés.

Pour réaliser de telles transactions vous pouvez effectivement utiliser les billets mentionnés. Ceci va représenter un certain encombrement. Mais la réalité peut être différente. Il existe des billets de 50, 100, 200 et 500 € dont on ne vous a pas parlé. Leur utilisation aurait présenté de nombreux avantages : rapidité de la transaction, commodité de transport, adéquation entre le montant et les billets, etc.

Votre site d’analyse technique et votre professeur  sont le banquier évoqué. Vous souhaitez savoir pourquoi ? Suivez notre formation à l’ATDMF 2011 (comme peuvent en témoigner les personnes formées depuis plus de 10 ans, nous vous expliquerons le rôle essentiel du 10 Y). Vous comprendrez qu’à l’incompétence des uns s’ajoute des intérêts  commerciaux qui ne sont pas en votre faveur.

Le 10 Year Treasury Note en 2011 sera l’or de 2010…cependant vous pouvez continuer à faire des arbitrages de Renault contre Peugeot puisque l’utilisation de l’analyse technique le permet et que votre courtier ne peut que vous y encourager.

 

Renseignements : atdmfcahen@yahoo.fr

CAC 40: weakness could develop.

Medium term: decline below MW

On a weekly basis, Bollinger bands spread is shrinking. Our technical analysis management tools are neutral. Below MW, LD is our next objective.

Idea:  away from this time frame

Bet: without trend for some periods.

 

R = PW (3947);               S= MW (3735), LW (3537)

  

 

Short term: without trend

On a daily basis, UD / LD spread is maximal. Without a PEI for our technical analysis management tools, UD is a strong resistance.

Idea: pseudo bearish no-crossover for our moving averages

Bet: towards LD if MD fail as a support.

R = UD (3904);     S= MD (3769), LD (3635)

 

Conclusion: without a rise next week, LD could be a target.

 

ATDMF 2011 : mise à niveau,

 

S’adresse à toutes les personnes ayant participé à une formation ATDMF de 3 jours depuis début 2008.

Méthodologie : 1 journée : 800 € (document et repas compris)

En complément, exercices : 1 journée : 800 € (document et repas compris)

 

2 ou 3 participants par séance.

 

Dates : 17 et 18 décembre ; 16 et 17 janvier,

 

Inscription : atdmfcahen@yahoo.fr

 

GPB / USD: lower trend is not ruled out

   Long term: lower?

On a yearly basis, Bollinger bands are down. Our technical analysis management tools will continue to decline. MY will act as a resistance for two periods or more.

On a quarterly basis, a PEI could develop with our technical analysis management tools. LQ is our main support.

On a monthly basis, the UM / LM spread could be a reference one. A bullish no-crossover is the status for our stochastic. As long as PM proves to be a resistance, LM could be a target.

Idea: towards UM if PM fails as a resistance

Bet: PM as a PEI.

R = PM (1.631), UM (1.6859)    S= LM (1.4722)

 

Medium term: without trendOn a weekly basis, UW / LW spread is minimal. A NEI is in progress with our technical analysis management tools. MW is a strong resistance and LW is our main support.

Idea: towards LW

Bet: nothing to do.

R = MW (1.5759);     S = LW (1.5354)

  

Short term: technical recoverylrt term: no trend965Y (1.4243amilliales) enance personnelle.tellis

On a daily basis, Bollinger bands spread is wide. A NEI is in progress with our technical analysis management tools. As long as MD acts as a resistance, LD could be our first support. 

Idea: a bearish no-crossover could develop with our moving averages.

Bet: not higher than MD.

R = MD (1.5819);   S = LD (1.5457).

 

Conclusion:  as long as MD = resistance, LW is our first support.

 

Gold: December 2007 weekly pattern as a benchmark?

Yearly trend: in 2012 /2013, qualification in a new bullish parallel pattern

On a yearly basis, a bullish parallel pattern is in progress with a strong dynamic for LY. PY will cross MY in more than one period. A powerful bullish no-crossover is in progress with our stochastic. On a Historical basis, one of the most bullish pattern ever seen (since the end of XIX century). 

Idea: LY will continue to decline for two periods or more

Bet: S&P 500 rise in the 1986 / 2000 as a benchmark.

 

Long term: a new monthly bullish pattern qualification wards LM (49.90ng as MQ (44.60

On a quarterly basis, the pattern is a bullish parallel one. The dynamic for our 7 / 23 quarters moving averages is strong and continue thru 2013. The status in progress for our MACD and our stochastic is a bullish no-crossover. On a quarterly basis, these patterns give a very powerful signal.

On a monthly basis, our 7 / 23 months moving averages are up with a bullish no-crossover as a current status. The status for our monthly MACD and stochastic is a bullish no-crossover. A bullish parallel qualification is in progress.

Idea: use bullish parallel rules on a monthly basis

Bet: very bullish for 2011

R = rise > 2 years, +++ (should be above 2 000, 3 000 and +++);    S = PM (1227)

 

Medium term: December 2007 pattern in progress (+ 20 % within 4 months?)

On a weekly basis; a bullish parallel is in progress.

Idea: use bullish parallel rules.

Bet: very bullish as long as our stochastic is not overbought.

 

R= +++        S = PW (1348.6), MW (1303.8)

 

Short term:  Bollinger spread is increasing

On a daily basis, our technical analysis management tools are up. Without a PEI, as long as our MACD is not overbought, the rise in progress will continue.

Idea: higher

Bet: with a new Historical High today, a new bull trend could develop.

 

R = 1427.5, +++          S = MD (1376)

 

Conclusion: hold on long position (bought 6 October 2009 at 1034).

 

S & P 500: could be bullish soon…

Long term basis: bullish above UM (at the close)

On a yearly basis, the status for our MACD is a bearish divergence. Furthermore, our MACD and stochastic are overbought at the same period. As long as our M7 is up, the main pattern is always a bullish parallel one. Below MY, a collapse could develop.

On a quarterly basis, a bearish A type crossover is in progress with our 7 / 23 quarters moving averages. A bullish no-crossover is in progress with our stochastic. As long as UM proves to be a resistance, the rise in progress is only a technical recovery.

On a monthly basis, Bollinger bands spread is wide. The status for our 7 / 23 months moving is a PEI. The status is the same for our MACD. UM is our main target.

Idea: not bullish as long as MQ proves to be a resistance at the close

Bet: towards UQ if UM fails as a resistance (at the close + LM trend down)

R = UM (1248), +;    S = MM (1081).

 

Medium term: parallel qualification

On a weekly basis, a parallel qualification is in progress.

Idea: use bullish parallel rules

Bet: end of parallel with an overbought status for our MACD.

 

R = UM (1248);    S= PW (1173), MW (1142)

 

Short term: flat

On a daily basis, UD / LD spread is wide. UD could act as a resistance. If MD proves to be a support, a bullish pre-parallel pattern could develop.

Idea: recovery with an oversold status for our stochastic

Bet: bearish below LD.

 

R = UD (1228);                   S= MD (1200), LD (1171)

 

Conclusion:  above UM (at the close) is not ruled out.