Long term: warning
On a quarterly basis, Bollinger bands spread is increasing. Our 7 / 23 quarters moving averages are up. A bearish divergence could develop with our stochastic before year’s end and next year with our MACD.
On a monthly basis, PM failed as a support. The status for our stochastic and MACD is overbought. As long as MM proves to be a support, a decline is only a technical move.
Idea: quarterly bearish divergence is in hand => MQ or below.
Bet: collapse below MM
R= UM (132.66) S= MM (125.04), MQ (119.17)
Medium term: bearish
On a weekly basis (continuous contract), Bollinger bands spread is not a reference one. A PEI is in progress with our stochastic. As long as our MACD is not oversold, MM is our first target.
Idea: as long as MW = resistance, a up move is only a technical recovery
Bet: towards MM or lower.
R = MW (130.18); S = MM (125.04)
Short term (March 2011 contract): like a bearish parallel
On a daily basis, a qualification into a bearish parallel pattern is in hand.
Idea: bearish as long as our MACD is not oversold.
Bet: recovery above PD.
R = MD (129.26) S = MM (125.04)
Conclusion: a collapse is not ruled out.
Position: Previous: short below PM (continuous contract); in progress: short, Next: hold on + stop-loss (MD)