Archives pour la catégorie taux d’intérêt

Euro-Bund: lower (medium / long term basis)

Long term: towards MQ or below

On a quarterly basis, Bollinger bands spread is maximal. A bullish A type crossover for our 7 / 23 months moving averages could be over this year. A bearish divergence is in progress with our stochastic. Next period a similar status could be expected with our MACD. MQ is our first support.

On a monthly basis, a bearish crossover could be the status for our 7 / 23 months moving averages.

Idea: LM is our first support.

Bet:  as long as MM proves to be a resistance, a decline towards LM is in progress.

R= MM (125.42)    S= MQ (119.33), LM (118.61)

           

Medium term: technical recovery

On a weekly basis (Continuous contract); a bullish no-crossover is in progress with our MACD. Above MW, UW could be a target.

Idea: MW could be a strong resistance

Bet:

R = MW (124.75);   S = LW (120.75)

 

Short term (June 2011 contract): without trend

On a daily basis, UD / LD spread is maximal. TAM are neutral. UD is our main resistance and LD is our main support.

Idea: nothing to do

Bet:

R = UD (123.5)   S = LD (121.25)

 

Conclusion: wait on a short term basis.

 

10 Y T-Note: with a daily type II PEI, add TYO

Long term: towards LM

On a yearly basis, the status for our 7 / 23 years moving averages is a bullish no-crossover. The same status is in progress for our stochastic. The rise in progress could extend for some periods. Current Historical high is our first objective.

On a quarterly basis, UQ / LQ spread is wide. A bullish A type crossover is in progress with our 7 / 23 quarters moving averages. Our stochastic and MACD could be overbought at the close. Current Historical high or MQ could be an objective.

On a monthly basis, the spread for Bollinger bands spread is above a reference one. A bearish A type crossover could develop this year with our 7 / 23 quarters moving averages Our stochastic and MACD are overbought. LM could be a target.

Idea: LM is a strong support.

Bet: with a close below MM, LM as a target is likely.

 R = MM (120.1);    S =MQ (115.16), LM (113.69)

 

Medium term: lower for some weeks

On a weekly basis, PEI are in progress with TAM. MQ is our first target.

Idea: MW is a strong resistance

Bet: bearish below MQ.

R = MW (122.98);    S = MQ (115.16)

  

Short term: Bollinger bands spread is expending

On a daily basis, a type I or II PEI is expected.

Idea: wait for PEI

Bet: type II.

R = MD (120.1);    S = MQ (115.16)

 

Conclusion: with a daily type II PEI add TYO.

 

A spread with futures easy to do: buy 3M ED + sell 3M Euribor

Long term: flat

On a monthly basis, TAM are without clear trend.

Idea: none

Bet:  decline as long as MM proves to be a resistance.

R= MM (99.144)    S= LM (98.853)

           

Medium term: weak

On a weekly basis (continuous contract), Bollinger bands spread is not a reference one.  A PEI will develop with our 7 / 23 weeks moving averages. Below PW, LW is our main target.

Idea:  focus on PW

Bet: towards LW.

 

R = MW (98.985);   S = PW (98.909), LW (98.869)

 

Short term: lower

On a daily basis, Bollinger bands spread is expending. A PEI could develop with our stochastic. As long as our MACD is not oversold, the decline in progress will continue. 

Idea: PEI on TAM could develop

Bet: nothing to do.

R = 98.945, MD (98.986)   S = PW (98.909)

 

Conclusion: long 3M Eurodollar + short 3M Euribor

Euro-Bund: bearish until the end of March (or +)

Long term: towards MQ or below

On a quarterly basis, Bollinger bands spread is maximal. Our 7 / 23 quarters moving averages are up. A bearish divergence is in progress with our stochastic. Next period a similar status is expected with our MACD. MQ is our first support.

On a monthly basis, MM could fail as a support (at the close). A bearish A type crossover could be the status for our 7 / 23 months moving averages.

Idea: LM could be a strong support.

Bet:  a decline towards LM is in progress.

R= MM (125.22)    S= MQ (119.42), LM (117.94)

           

Medium term: bearish without pattern

On a weekly basis (continuous contract), a PEI is in progress with our MACD.

Idea:  LM as a target with a PEI for our MACD.

Bet: bearish for three periods or more.

R = MW (128.47);   S = LW (123.44)

 

Short term (March 2011 contract): without trend

On a daily basis, Bollinger bands spread is minimal. With TAM, no PEI could develop on a daily basis.

Idea: LD is our first support.

Bet: MD will act as a resistance.

R = MD (125.21), UD (126.44)   S = LD (123.98)

 

Conclusion: bearish until the end of March (or +)

 

10 Y T-Note: focus…

Long term: towards LM is not ruled out

On a yearly basis, the status for our 7 / 23 years moving averages is a bullish no-crossover. The same status is in progress for our stochastic. The rise in progress could extend for some periods. Current Historical high is our first objective.

On a quarterly basis, UQ / LQ spread is wide. A bullish A type crossover is in progress with our 7 / 23 quarters moving averages. Our stochastic and MACD are overbought. Current Historical high could be an objective.

On a monthly basis, the spread for Bollinger bands spread is wide and bands are flat. A bearish A type crossover could develop this year with our 7 / 23 quarters moving averages Our stochastic and MACD are overbought. LM could be a target.

Idea: LM is a strong support.

Bet: lower below last month low (118.53).

 R = MM (119.79);    S = 118.53, PQ (115.43), LM (113.14)

 

Medium term: lower for some weeks

On a weekly basis, UW / LW spread was a reference one and continue to expend. A bearish A type crossover is in progress with our 7 / 23 weeks moving averages. A PEI is in progress with our stochastic. A NEI is in progress on the monthly pattern.

Idea: MW is a strong resistance

Bet: towards 118.53

R = MW (124.12);    S = 118.53

  

Short term: Bollinger bands spread is minimal

On a daily basis, a bearish no-crossover is in progress with our 7 / 23 days moving averages. Below PD, our stochastic and MACD will be overbought. With this hypothesis, a decline without a bearish pattern (a qualification is expected next week) will develop.

Idea: very weak with an overbought status for our MACD

Bet: PD will fail as a support.

R = MD (119.99);    S = PD (118.89), –

 

Conclusion: lower below PD

 

 

Euro-Bund contract could collapse…

Long term: warning

On a quarterly basis, Bollinger bands spread is increasing. Our 7 / 23 quarters moving averages are up. A bearish divergence could develop with our stochastic before year’s end and next year with our MACD.

On a monthly basis, PM failed as a support. The status for our stochastic and MACD is overbought. As long as MM proves to be a support, a decline is only a technical move.

Idea: quarterly bearish divergence is in hand => MQ or below.

Bet:  collapse below MM

R= UM (132.66)    S= MM (125.04), MQ (119.17)

           

Medium term: bearish

On a weekly basis (continuous contract), Bollinger bands spread is not a reference one.  A PEI is in progress with our stochastic. As long as our MACD is not oversold, MM is our first target.

Idea:  as long as MW = resistance, a up move is only a technical recovery

Bet: towards MM or lower.  

R = MW (130.18);   S = MM (125.04)

 

Short term (March 2011 contract): like a bearish parallel

On a daily basis, a qualification into a bearish parallel pattern is in hand.  

Idea: bearish as long as our MACD is not oversold.

Bet: recovery above PD.

R = MD (129.26)   S = MM (125.04)

 

Conclusion: a collapse is not ruled out.

 

Position: Previous: short below PM (continuous contract); in progress: short, Next: hold on + stop-loss (MD)

 

10 Y T-Note: without trend (medium term)

On a yearly basis, the status for our 7 / 23 years moving averages is a bullish no-crossover. The same status is in progress for our stochastic and MACD. The rise in progress should extend for some periods. Current Historical high is only our first objective.

On a quarterly basis, UQ / LQ spread is wide but increasing. A bullish A type crossover is in progress with our 7 / 23 quarters moving averages. Our stochastic and MACD were oversold at the same time. Current Historical high is only our first objective.

On a monthly basis, the spread for Bollinger bands spread is wide and bands are diverging. Our stochastic and MACD are not yet overbought.

Idea: as long as our monthly stochastic is not overbought, no correction could develop                                

Bet: bullish no-crossover for our stochastic is not ruled out.

 R = 128.7, +++;    S = MM (119.91)

 

Medium term: bullish parallel pattern

On a weekly basis, our 7 / 23 weeks moving averages are up. A bullish parallel is in progress. The rise could amplify.

Idea: use bullish parallel rules

Bet: towards LW if PW fails as a support.

R = UW (127.99);    S = MW (124.58), PW (123.9), LW (121.17)

 

  

Short term: without trend

On a daily basis, Bollinger bands are flat and the spread is thin. Our indicators are neutral. With our weekly moving averages trend LD will be a strong support.

Idea: neutral

Bet: nothing to do.

R = UD (127.67);    S = PW (125.55)

 

Conclusion: nothing to do until January 2011.

 

10Y T-Note contract: lower

Long term: higher on a yearly basis

On a yearly basis, the status for our 7 / 23 years moving averages is a bullish no-crossover. The same status is in progress for our stochastic and MACD. The rise in progress should extend for some periods. Current Historical high is only our first objective.

On a quarterly basis, UQ / LQ spread is wide and LQ is flat. A bullish A type crossover is in progress with our 7 / 23 quarters moving averages. Our stochastic and MACD were oversold at the same time. Current Historical high is only our first objective.

On a monthly basis, the spread for Bollinger bands spread is wide and bands are diverging. Our stochastic and MACD are not yet overbought.

Idea: as long as our monthly stochastic is not overbought, no correction could develop                                

Bet: bullish no-crossover for our stochastic is not ruled out.

 R = 128.7, +++;    S = MM (119.74)

 

Medium term: bullish parallel pattern

On a weekly basis, our 7 / 23 weeks moving averages are up. A bullish parallel is in progress. The rise could amplify.

Idea: use bullish parallel rules

Bet: towards LW if PW fails as a support.

R = UW (127.97);    S = MW (124.25), PW (123.66), LW (120.53)

 

 

Short term: lower but not bearish

On a daily basis, Bollinger bands are expending. A bearish no-crossover is the status for our stochastic. For our 7 / 23 days moving averages, a bearish A type crossover will develop. With our weekly moving averages trend, PW could be a support.

Idea: lower as long as our MACD is not oversold

Bet: MD is our main resistance.

R = MD (126.65);    S = PW (123.66)

 

Conclusion: technical correction on a daily basis.

 

10Y T-Note: higher due to QE policy (€ / $ + and gold +++)

Long term: higher on a yearly basis

On a yearly basis, the status for our 7 / 23 years moving averages is a bullish no-crossover. The same status is in progress for our stochastic and MACD. The rise in progress should extend for some periods. Current Historical high is only our first objective.

On a quarterly basis, UQ / LQ spread is wide but increasing. A bullish A type crossover is in progress with our 7 / 23 quarters moving averages. Our stochastic and MACD were oversold at the same time. Current Historical high is only our first objective.

On a monthly basis, the spread for Bollinger bands spread is wide and bands are diverging. Our stochastic and MACD are not yet overbought.

Idea: as long as our monthly stochastic is not overbought, no correction could develop                                

Bet: above Historical High (128.7)

 R = 128.7, +++;    S = MM (119.78)

 

Medium term: bullish parallel pattern

On a weekly basis, our 7 / 23 weeks moving averages are up. A bullish parallel is in progress. The rise could amplify.

Idea: use bullish parallel rules

Bet: higher for some weeks.

R = 128.7;    S = MW (123.7)

   

Short term: higher

On a daily basis, MD is up. As long as our MACD is not overbought, the rise in progress will continue.

Idea: bullish parallel qualification in progress

Bet: bullish no-crossover for our MACD.

R = 128.77;    S = MD (126.02)

 

Conclusion: bullish on a medium term basis

 

€-Bund: higher than 10 Y T-Note

Long term: bullish

On a quarterly basis, Bollinger bands spread is increasing. Our 7 / 23 quarters moving averages are up. Our stochastic and MACD will continue to rise.

On a monthly basis, a bullish no-crossover is the status for our 7 / 23 months moving averages. A bullish no-crossover is not ruled out with our stochastic. A qualification into a bullish parallel could be in hand next month.

Idea: higher for some periods on a quarterly basis.

Bet:  bullish in 2011

R= Historical High (134.77), +, ++;    S= MM (124.31)

           

Medium term: bullish parallel pattern

On a weekly basis (continuous contract), a bullish parallel pattern is in progress.

Idea:  use bullish parallel rules

Bet: MW (end of period) will acts as a support

R = 134.77 (current high), +, ++;   S = MW (129.89)

 

Short term (December 2010 contract): without trend

On a daily basis, Bollinger bands spread is not minimal and bands are flat. A bullish B type crossover is in progress with our 7 / 23 days moving averages. UD could act as a resistance.

Idea:  rise as long as our stochastic is not overbought

Bet: recovery in line with a rise for 10 Y T-Note.

R = MD (130.97)   S = LD (128.83)

 

Conclusion: less bullish than 10 Y T-Note (medium term basis)