Archives mensuelles : janvier 2013

Gold: no main trend this week

Long term: a technical correction is not ruled out

On a yearly basis: a type II is in progress. LY could continue to decline with a bullish T9. This PEI is the strongest that we know. Expect to use Dow Jones 1980 / 2000 bull trend as a benchmark.

On a quarterly basis, a bullish parallel pattern is in progress. A bearish no-crossover is in progress with our stochastic. MACD is overbought.

On a monthly basis, the bullish parallel pattern is over since May 2012. A bearish no-crossover is the status of our MACD.

Idea: end of the bull trend if MQ fails as a support

Bet: LM is our first target.

R= UM (1799); S= LM (1534), MQ (1301)

Medium term: neutral

On a weekly basis, Bollinger Bands spread is a reference one. TAM tools are up and down.

Idea: use our stochastic as a leading indicator

Bet: within two weeks, a main trend could emerge.

R= MW (1715); S= LW (1639)

Short term: without main trend

On a daily basis, a bullish no-crossover is the status for our stochastic and MACD.

Idea: use our stochastic as a leading indicator

Bet: our stochastic and MACD could be overbought tomorrow.

R= UD (1680.5); S= MD (1662.3), LD (1644.1)

Conclusion: wait.

L’intraday gagnant pour les particuliers

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S& P 500: above Historical High is likely

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Long term basis: Above Historic High as long as monthly MACD is not overbought

On a yearly basis, PY failed as a resistance. Stochastic is oversold. Our moving averages could continue to rise. UY is our main target if 1576 (current high) fails as a resistance.

On a quarterly basis, Bollinger Bands spread is maximal but could increase. A bullish no-crossover is the status for our stochastic and MACD.UQ (1551) is our first target.

On a monthly basis, a bullish no-crossover is the status for each TAM tool. M23 is not flat.

Idea: monthly MACD is our leading indicator

Bet: with a no-crossover status for our monthly stochastic and MACD in early February, 2013 will be a bullish year.

R = 1576, UY (1683), +++; S = MM (1321)

Weekly basis: a bullish T1 is expected

On a weekly basis, Bollinger bands spread is a minimal one. With a downtrend for LW, a bullish T1 will develop.

Idea: focus on LW trend (if a close above UW occurs)

Bet: be long only with a T2.

R = UW (1476); S= MW (1425)

Daily basis: wait

Bollinger spread is above a reference one. With a technical correction towards MD, PEI will develop on TAM tools and Bollinger spread will be lower than a reference one.

Idea: wait for Type II, type I or bullish pre-parallel

Bet: too early to add a new long position.

R= UW (1476); S= MD (1437.9)

Conclusion: could be bullish if UW fails as a resistance (weekly close).

USD / JPY: higher

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Long term: above MQ?

On a yearly basis, Bollinger bands spread will stay flat. A bearish no-crossover is the status for our moving averages but our MACD is oversold.

On a quarterly basis, the trend for M23 is bearish. A bullish no-crossover is the status for our stochastic. A recovery towards or above MQ is expected.

On a monthly basis, the UM / LM spread is expending with a close above UM and a NEI is in progress on the upper time frame.

Idea: monthly MACD is our leading indicator

Bet: above MQ without a bullish trend.

R= MQ (88.01), 100, MY (105.74); S= MM (79.7)

Medium term: type II in progress

On a weekly basis, a type II is in progress. LW trend is bearish with a bullish T9.

Idea: use parallel rules

Bet: towards 100 or above.

R = MQ (88.01); S = PW (82.74).

Short term: type III in progress

On a daily basis, a type III is in progress.

Idea: use parallel rules

Bet: higher.

R = MQ (88.01); S = MD (85.65).

Conclusion: towards MQ or higher.

Gold is not yet bearish

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Long term: a technical correction is not ruled out

On a yearly basis: a type II is in progress. LY could continue to decline with a bullish T9. This PEI is the strongest that we know. Expect to use Dow Jones 1980 / 2000 bull trend as a benchmark.

On a quarterly basis, a bullish parallel pattern is in progress.

On a monthly basis, the bullish parallel pattern is over since May 2012. A bearish no-crossover is the status of our MACD.

Idea: end of the bull trend if MQ fails as a support

Bet: LM is our first target.

R= MM (1666); S= LM (1534), PQ (1514), MQ (1301)

Medium term: lower without a bearish trend

On a weekly basis, Bollinger Bands spread is a reference one. A NEI is the status for our monthly moving averages.

Idea: use our MACD as a leading indicator

Bet: LW could fail as a support.

R= MW (1715); S= LW (1638), LM (1538)

Short term: lower

On a daily basis, a bearish no-crossover is the status for our moving averages.

Idea: use our MACD as a leading indicator

Bet: our stochastic and MACD could be overbought tomorrow.

R= MD (1726.8), UD (1746.4); S= LD (1707.1)

Conclusion: lower.

S&P 500: be careful

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Long term basis: could be bullish

On a yearly basis, PY failed as a resistance. Stochastic is oversold. Our moving averages could continue to rise. UY is our main target if 1576 (current high) fails as a resistance.

On a quarterly basis, Bollinger Bands spread is maximal but could increase. A bullish no-crossover is the status for our stochastic and MACD.UQ (1549) is our first target.

On a monthly basis, a bullish no-crossover is the status for each TAM tool. M23 is not flat.

Idea: monthly MACD is our leading indicator

Bet: with a no-crossover status for our monthly stochastic and MACD in early February, 2013 will be a bullish year.

R = 1576, UY (1683); S = MM (1321), LM (1165)

Weekly basis: a bullish T1 is not ruled out

On a weekly basis, Bollinger bands spread is a minimal one. With a downtrend for LW, a bullish T1 could develop.

Idea: focus on LW trend (if a close above UW occurs)

Bet: be long only with a T2.

R = UW (1469.7); S= MW (1422.6)

Daily basis: be careful

A NEI is in progress on the upper time frame. No T2 is in progress on the daily basis.

Idea: use our daily MACD as a leading indicator

Bet: a bullish pre-parallel could develop.

R= U (1469.7); S= MD (1428.3), LD (1398)

Conclusion: could be bullish if UW fails as a resistance (weekly close).

Long Gilt: focus on 117.20

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Long term: lower

On a quarterly basis, our stochastic and MACD are overbought.

On a monthly basis, if 117.20 (current low) fails as a support, LM could be a target.

Idea: use our stochastic as a leading indicator

Bet: lower.

R= MM (120.16); S= 117.20, LM (111.9)

Medium term: bearish

On a weekly basis, Bollinger Bands spread is expending but MW is not flat.

Idea: use our MACD as a leading indicator

Bet: below PW.

R= MW (119.5); S= 117.20, PW (116.56)

Short term: bearish below 117.20

On a daily basis; with a bearish no-crossover as a status for our moving averages, a bear trend will develop.

Idea: short below PW

Bet: easy to see the main trend next Monday morning.

R= MD (118.62); S= 117.20

Conclusion: wait tomorrow afternoon.

€ could be strong for some months

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Long term: towards PQ?

On a yearly basis, TAM tools are without NEI / PEI.

On a quarterly basis, a bearish no-crossover is in progress for our moving averages. Our stochastic is oversold. MQ is a strong resistance.

On a monthly basis, the UM / LM spread is above a reference one. Stochastic and MACD are oversold and M23 will continue to decline.

Idea: above MQ, PQ will be our main objective

Bet: with a close above MM, rise will continue for several months.

R= MM (1.3244), MQ (1.3672), PQ (1.4374); S= MW (1.2927).

Medium term: higher?

On a weekly basis, a bullish no-crossover is in progress with our moving averages.

Idea: weekly MACD is our leading indicator

Bet: MM (end of period) could fail as a resistance.

R = MM (1.3244); S = MW (1.2927).

Short term: higher as long as MD= support

On a daily basis, a bullish no-crossover is the status for our moving averages. Our stochastic and MACD could be oversold together.

Idea: bullish if our MACD is oversold within one day

Bet: 1.3308 (current high) will fail as a resistance.

R = 1.3308; S = MD (1.3142).

Conclusion: higher for several months with a monthly close above 1.3244.