Archives mensuelles : novembre 2008

Apocalypse now.

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L’évolution de nos indicateurs concernant des prévisions à l’horizon de plusieurs trimestres, permet de remplacer le conditionnel par le futur. Le franchissement des points bas de 2002 sur les marchés US accompagné d’une hausse de la volatilité sur les graphiques trimestriels indique que le mouvement en cours va se poursuivre et s’amplifier durant l’année 2009. Si ces informations ne sont pas encore disponibles sur les marchés européens, l’analyse des graphiques mensuels indique qu’ils sont simplement en retard. Ceci présente donc des opportunités pour les opérateurs. Rappelons qu’à la  différence des économistes qui parlent d’un marché en disant qu’il est bon lorsqu’il est haussier, pour des analystes techniques le marché est bon lorsque la prévision est exacte. Avec l’ATDMF, depuis plusieurs mois, des plus values exceptionnelles sont engrangées en utilisant des supports à fort effet de levier. Ceci est rendu possible par l’approche originale de l’ATDMF concernant la hausse de la volatilité. 

Quelques jours de répit  pourraient permettre à la volatilité de se renforcer. Pour certains, Noël continuera à se fêter tous les jours et pour les autres l’Apocalypse  hantera leurs jours et leurs nuits.

                       

CAC 40: Apocalypse for 2009

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Long term: towards 2400 or lower

On a yearly basis, see the dynamic for – 8 and next…MY (3375) failed as a support. 3000 is our first target and 2400 the next one. Our stochastic will be overbought at the end of Q4. With this hypothesis, 2400 will fail as a support. Below 2 000, LY (512 in 2008) will be our next objective.

On a quarterly basis, our 7 / 23 quarters moving averages crossover could be a bearish A type. Our MACD is overbought. LQ failed as a support (wait the end of Q4) and a nice dynamic is in progress with UQ, 2400 is our next target.

On a monthly basis; Bollinger bands are diverging with a strong dynamic. A bearish crossover PM / MM occurred. A bearish parallel pattern is in progress for 4 to 15(?) periods.

Idea: as long as the dynamic for UQ increase, new lows (2400, 2000, LY) are expected.

 

Medium term: like a bearish parallel pattern

On a weekly basis, Bollinger band spread is maximal but continues to increase. A bearish non-crossover is the status for our 7 / 23 moving averages, stochastic and MACD. As long as our stochastic is not oversold, the collapse in progress will continue or amplify.

 Idea: 2 400 and 2 000 are our next objectives.

  

 

 

Short term: new bearish ATDMF pattern on a daily basis

On a daily basis, UD / LD spread is far away from its minimum level but increasing before a close below LD. With a close below LD this Friday (21/11) and an increase of the bullish dynamic for UD, a bearish ATDMF pattern will develop (+ a new low next Monday). Otherwise, as long as MD (3319) proves to be a resistance, a bearish pre-parallel pattern could develop. . As long as our 7 days moving average is down, a rise is only a technical recovery.

 

Idea: with a bearish T2, a collapse will develop.

Conclusion: with a daily bearish T2, 2401 is our first target and 2000 is the next one.

 

Financial Futures : contrats européens à la fête

 

A l’horizon de quelques mois le potentiel de hausse des contrats européens sera supérieur à celui des contrats US. Ceci va bien arranger les partisans d’une baisse de l’€.

 

Rejoignez le clan des gagnants en utilisant l’ATDMF pour prendre positions en intraday ou sur du plus long terme sur les indices ou sur les devises (voir formations).

Demain notre éditorial et l’avenir du CAC 40 : Apocalypse now.

                                                                      

Contrat 10 Y T-Note : vers un plus haut Historique.

Long term: bullish

On a yearly basis, Bollinger bands are up. The status for our 7 / 23 years moving averages is a bullish non-crossover. Our stochastic and MACD will be oversold at the end of the year. 123.59 (historical high) is our first resistance.

On a quarterly basis, the spread UQ / LQ is minimal but is increasing. A bullish non-crossover is the status for our stochastic and MACD. 123.59 is our next objective. MW (115.26) is a strong support.

On a monthly basis, PM failed as a resistance. A bullish non-crossover is the status for our  7 / 23 months moving averages. Pattern with our Bollinger bands is a bullish parallel one.

 Idea: FED will act again in 2008 and 2009.

 

Medium term: nice bullish T1

On a weekly basis, a nice bullish T1 is in progress.

Idea: go long with a T2 next week

 

Short term: rise

On a daily basis, the spread UD / LD is maximal. The status for our stochastic and MACD is a bullish non-crossover. MD (115.62) is our main support.

Idea: rise as long as our MACD is not overbought.

 

Conclusion: towards a new Historical high.

 

€ de plus en plus faible.

2009 sera l’année, entre autres, d’une crise majeure sur l’Euro. Nous estimons qu’il existe des opportunités pour se placer sur des produits à effet de levier pour profiter du potentiel de baisse de l’Euro contre le USD et JPY. Sur le USD / JPY le mouvement va se poursuivre également (voir notre analyse).

Suivez nos formations à l’ATDMF pour mettre en pratique les anticipations sur les devises. 

                                                                      

€ / $: weaker and weaker

   Long term: towards MY (1.1931)

On a yearly basis, our indicators are rising. Bollinger band spread is not minimal and LY is flat. A bullish T1 occurred at the previous close but T2 fade away with the trend for LY.

On a quarterly basis, the trend for our 7 / 23 quarters moving averages is not bearish. MY (1.1931) is our next objective and LQ (1.1032) is the next one.

On a monthly basis, the UM / LM spread is wide but increasing (new high for volatility). Our stochastic and MACD are not oversold. A bearish A type crossover will be the status for our 7 / 23 months moving averages. MY is our first target.

Idea: towards LQ (1.1031) is not ruled out.

 

Medium term: bearish parallel pattern

On a weekly basis, PW crossed MW + dynamic in progress for each Bollinger band. A bearish non-crossover is in progress with our MACD. A bearish parallel pattern is in progress.

Idea: use parallel pattern rules.

 

Short term: bearish

On a daily basis, Bollinger bands spread is minimal. MD (1.2725) is our main resistance. As long as our M 23 will decline, a rise is only a technical recovery.

Idea: a bearish ATDMF pattern could develop.

 

Conclusion: MY (1.1931) first weak objective.

Pétrole : vers 33 $?

 

Yearly trend: bullish?

On a yearly basis, Bollinger bands are diverging. This pattern is more bullish than Gold between 1970 and 1980 or Dow Jones between 1982 and 2000 or Nikkei 225 between 1974 and 1989. The bull trend should continue for some years. 300 $ could be a minimal objective with a reference to other markets. Next year, a bullish crossover PY / MY is expected + a divergence between UY and LY. A yearly bullish parallels pattern could develop for some years.

Idea: bullish for more than 3 years.

 

Long term: technical correction

On a quarterly basis, the pattern was a bullish parallels one (with a Q4 close below MQ (68.46)). Our stochastic and MACD are overbought. MY (33.55) could be a target if LM (48.37) fails as a support.

On a monthly basis, a bullish parallels pattern was in progress.  The spread UM / LM is maximal and expending. A new high for UM / LM spread is in progress. LM (48.37) is our first support and MY is the next one.

Idea: our monthly stochastic is not oversold; MY (33.55) could be a target.

 

Medium term: bearish parallel pattern

On a weekly basis, a bearish parallel pattern is in progress.

Idea: use bearish parallel rules.

 

Short term: no bear ATDMF signal

On a daily basis, the spread UD / LD is not far away from its minimal level. Our 23 days moving average is bearish. The status for our MACD is not overbought. As long as MD (63.81) proves to be a resistance, a weak bearish T1 could develop. For a strong new bear trend; first, a bearish pre-parallel pattern could develop (LD will act as a support + MD as a resistance and next will be a free fall).

Idea: a bearish pre-parallel pattern is not ruled out.

 

Conclusion: towards LM (48.37) is likely.

 

2008, nouvelle référence pour les krachs boursiers ?

Sur un graphique hebdomadaire (USA, France, …), la volatilité est maximale. Si  d’ici fin novembre un nouveau point bas est observé sur les cours, ceci indiquera que les conditions de marchés sont modifiées (l’utilisation des critères classiques de l’analyse technique sera obsolète) : une amplification de la baisse des cours va se mettre en place. Par exemple sur le S&P 5000, LY (200 en 2009) serait un objectif si  la zone autour de 765 ne sert pas de support.

S&P 500: effondrement possible

Long term basis: Yearly bearish divergence with our stochastic and MACD => PY (768) as a first target

On a yearly basis, a bullish parallels pattern is in progress but next pattern (end of Q4) for our MACD will be a bearish divergence. Furthermore, our MACD will be overbought before our stochastic: a sharp decline is in progress. Below PY (768), the collapse in progress could amplify. 700 and LY (114) are our next supports.

On a quarterly basis, Bollinger bands spread increase. The dynamic for our 7 quarters moving averages is strong and will increase for 5 periods or more. A bearish A type crossover is likely. Since the end of March 08 a bearish divergence is the status for our MACD. This is the status for our stochastic since December 2007.  PY (768) is our first target.

On a monthly basis; next month, a bearish crossover PM / MM + increase of the dynamic for UM is expected. A bearish A type crossover is in progress for our 7 / 23 months moving averages. The bear trend for our moving averages will increase until the end of 2008. The status for our stochastic and MACD is a bearish non-crossover. PY (768) is our first target.

Idea: below PY (768), 700 and LY (114) could be our next targets. 

 

Medium term: bearish as long as MW (1153) = resistance

On a weekly basis, the status for our 7 / 23 weeks moving averages is a bearish non-crossover. With a MACD overbought before our stochastic, a strong move is expected. The spread UW / LW is maximal; with a new low (below 818) a collapse is expected.

Idea: bearish non-crossover for our stochastic.

 

Short term: without trend

On a daily basis, this time frame is without trend. As long as our 23 days moving average continue to decline, a bearish ATDMF pattern could develop.

Idea: with a bearish ATDMF pattern, PY (768) is next door.

 

Conclusion: worst than 1929 collapse?