S&P 500: effondrement possible

Long term basis: Yearly bearish divergence with our stochastic and MACD => PY (768) as a first target

On a yearly basis, a bullish parallels pattern is in progress but next pattern (end of Q4) for our MACD will be a bearish divergence. Furthermore, our MACD will be overbought before our stochastic: a sharp decline is in progress. Below PY (768), the collapse in progress could amplify. 700 and LY (114) are our next supports.

On a quarterly basis, Bollinger bands spread increase. The dynamic for our 7 quarters moving averages is strong and will increase for 5 periods or more. A bearish A type crossover is likely. Since the end of March 08 a bearish divergence is the status for our MACD. This is the status for our stochastic since December 2007.  PY (768) is our first target.

On a monthly basis; next month, a bearish crossover PM / MM + increase of the dynamic for UM is expected. A bearish A type crossover is in progress for our 7 / 23 months moving averages. The bear trend for our moving averages will increase until the end of 2008. The status for our stochastic and MACD is a bearish non-crossover. PY (768) is our first target.

Idea: below PY (768), 700 and LY (114) could be our next targets. 

 

Medium term: bearish as long as MW (1153) = resistance

On a weekly basis, the status for our 7 / 23 weeks moving averages is a bearish non-crossover. With a MACD overbought before our stochastic, a strong move is expected. The spread UW / LW is maximal; with a new low (below 818) a collapse is expected.

Idea: bearish non-crossover for our stochastic.

 

Short term: without trend

On a daily basis, this time frame is without trend. As long as our 23 days moving average continue to decline, a bearish ATDMF pattern could develop.

Idea: with a bearish ATDMF pattern, PY (768) is next door.

 

Conclusion: worst than 1929 collapse?