Pétrole : vers 33 $?

 

Yearly trend: bullish?

On a yearly basis, Bollinger bands are diverging. This pattern is more bullish than Gold between 1970 and 1980 or Dow Jones between 1982 and 2000 or Nikkei 225 between 1974 and 1989. The bull trend should continue for some years. 300 $ could be a minimal objective with a reference to other markets. Next year, a bullish crossover PY / MY is expected + a divergence between UY and LY. A yearly bullish parallels pattern could develop for some years.

Idea: bullish for more than 3 years.

 

Long term: technical correction

On a quarterly basis, the pattern was a bullish parallels one (with a Q4 close below MQ (68.46)). Our stochastic and MACD are overbought. MY (33.55) could be a target if LM (48.37) fails as a support.

On a monthly basis, a bullish parallels pattern was in progress.  The spread UM / LM is maximal and expending. A new high for UM / LM spread is in progress. LM (48.37) is our first support and MY is the next one.

Idea: our monthly stochastic is not oversold; MY (33.55) could be a target.

 

Medium term: bearish parallel pattern

On a weekly basis, a bearish parallel pattern is in progress.

Idea: use bearish parallel rules.

 

Short term: no bear ATDMF signal

On a daily basis, the spread UD / LD is not far away from its minimal level. Our 23 days moving average is bearish. The status for our MACD is not overbought. As long as MD (63.81) proves to be a resistance, a weak bearish T1 could develop. For a strong new bear trend; first, a bearish pre-parallel pattern could develop (LD will act as a support + MD as a resistance and next will be a free fall).

Idea: a bearish pre-parallel pattern is not ruled out.

 

Conclusion: towards LM (48.37) is likely.