Le contrat Euro-Bund devrait continuer à progresser car l’amplification de la baisse des marchés boursiers va obliger la BCE à agir de nouveau. Oublions octobre 1929, le bench mark pour les krachs devient 2008 / 9 (nouvelle analyse vendredi matin).
Archives mensuelles : novembre 2008
€ Bund : plus haut.
Long term: higher
On a quarterly basis, Bollinger bands spread is minimal. Bollinger bands are flat. A bearish B type crossover is the status for our 7 / 23 quarters moving averages. PQ (120.89) is our first resistance.
On a monthly basis, the spread UM / LM is near its minimal level. Bollinger bands are diverging. With our 7 / 23 moving averages, the status is a bullish A type crossover. Our MACD is oversold. PQ (120.89) is our first resistance. MM (113.91) is our main support.
Idea: towards PQ (120.89)
Medium term: rise
On a weekly basis, the spread UW / LW is not minimal. A bullish non-crossover is the status for our stochastic and MACD. The same pattern is in progress with our 7 / 23 weeks moving averages.
Idea: bullish as long as our MACD is not overbought.
Short term: higher
On a daily basis, the spread UD / LD is maximal. As long as MD (116.63) proves to be a support, the rise in progress could develop.
Idea: nothing to do.
Conclusion: towards UQ (122.54).
€ / $ : effondrement de l’€ dans les prochains mois
Long term: towards MY (1.1930)
On a yearly basis, our indicators are rising. Bollinger band spread is not minimal and LY is flat. A bullish T1 occurred at the previous close but T2 fade away with the trend for LY.
On a quarterly basis, the trend for our 7 / 23 quarters moving averages is not bearish. MY (1.1930) is our next objective and LQ (1.1031) is the next one.
On a monthly basis, the UM / LM spread is wide but increasing (new high for volatility). Our stochastic and MACD are not oversold. A bearish A type crossover will be the status for our 7 / 23 months moving averages. MY is our first target.
Idea: towards LQ (1.1031) is not ruled out.
Medium term: bearish parallel pattern
On a weekly basis, PW crossed MW + dynamic in progress for each Bollinger band. A bearish non-crossover is in progress with our MACD (and a new one for stochastic is likely). A bearish parallel pattern is in progress.
Idea: use parallel pattern rules.
Short term: bearish
On a daily basis, Bollinger bands spread is not minimal. MD (1.2878) is our main resistance. As long as our M 23 will decline, a rise is only a technical recovery.
Idea: bearish pre-parallel pattern could develop with a bearish non-crossover for our 7 / 23 days MA.
Conclusion: MY (1.1930) first weak objective.
Editorial 12/11/08 :Trichet va bien rigoler (suite),
La véritable crise qui va faire exploser le système financier reste à venir. Elle va porter sur les changes (voir notre article sur l’ € / $ rubrique devises). Ceci signifie que le bricolage que concoctent nos grands argentiers pour sauver les marchés actions et de taux ne servira à rien. Si nous avons raison, il devient urgent de réfléchir sur le sort les Experts qui ne font pas, ou mal, leur travail. Souvenons-nous ce qui est arrivé à un trader qui a perdu 700 millions d’€. S’il est difficile de chiffrer la perte qui se prépare il n’est pas impossible que ce montant soit 10 000 ou 100 000 fois plus important. Les personnes touchées ne seront plus les actionnaires d’une société mais des ensembles de populations qui ne se trouvent pas dans le(s) pays avec une monnaie forte. Les USA et le Japon se préparent à faire une OPA sur le reste du monde….
Pour les analystes techniques cela représente des opportunités extraordinaires de gains. L’ATDMF est particulièrement performante dans ce type de situation. Les plus-values devraient être largement supérieures à celles réalisées par les opérateurs qui se sont positionnés à la baisse sur les banques il y a 6 mois. Avec les warrants, il suffit de quelques centaines d’€ pour opérer avec un risque limité. Nous pouvons vous former rapidement et vous faire profiter de la grande fête qui se prépare.
Or 11/11/08
Yearly trend: bullish for more than 2 years.
On a yearly basis, a bullish parallels pattern is in progress. The dynamic for each band is very strong. PY will cross MY in more than two years. Gold will shine for a long time.
Idea: bullish non-crossover for our stochastic.
Long term: towards MQ (610) /LM (600)
On a quarterly basis, the pattern is a bullish parallel one. The dynamic for our 7 / 23 quarters moving averages is and will stay strong. PQ failed as a support. Since the end of September, a weak bearish divergence with our stochastic is in progress. MQ (610) is our main target. On a monthly basis, a bullish parallel pattern began in October 2005. MM failed as a support. LM (600) is our main support.
Idea: as long as our monthly M23 is up, a monthly rise could resume.
Medium term: bearish without pattern
On a weekly basis, the spread UW / LW increase. The status for our 7 / 23 weeks moving averages is a bearish non-crossover. MW (843) is a strong resistance. LW (703) is a strong support. As long as our MACD is not oversold, the bear trend will continue towards LM (600).
Idea: go short with a daily signal.
Short term: neutral
On a daily basis, the spread UD / LD is minimal. Our 23 days moving average will continue to decline. UD (787) is a strong resistance.
Idea: in November, with a close below LD (705), a bearish parallel pattern could develop.
Conclusion: no opportunity.
Edito 11/11/2008
Bienvenue à nos lectrices et lecteurs sur le site de l’ATDMF, l’analyse technique du XXI eme siècle.
Ce site a pour but de vous renseigner sur l’ATDMF en proposant des éditoriaux, des analyses et des renseignements sur les formations effectuée par Philippe Cahen. D’ici quelques jours, un puis des forums seront à votre disposition.
Contrairement à un certain 11 novembre, il s’agit d’une trêve dans l’anticipation de la baisse des cours de l’or et du pétrole. Retrouvez notre analyse des cours de l’or dans la catégorie matières premières rubrique or.
Bonne lecture et bons trades.
Philippe Cahen
Indice Nasdaq 100 7/11/2008
Long term: bearish non-crossover for our yearly stochastic and MACD
On a yearly basis, a bearish non-crossover will be the status for our stochastic and MACD at the end of Q4. MY (1220) was our first objective. Now 1000 is our focus and 795 (current low) is a weak next target.
On a quarterly basis, the stochastic and our MACD are overbought. The next pattern for our 7 / 23 quarters moving averages could be a bearish A type crossover. Bollinger Bands spread is near its minimal level and LQ have a nice dynamic. If UQ is up at the end of Q4, a bearish T1 could be in hand. MQ (1662) is our main resistance. 795 is our next target if 1000 fails as a support.
On a monthly basis, a bearish non-crossover is in progress with our stochastic, MACD and for our 7 / 23 months moving averages. Bollinger band spread is not at its minimal level but the dynamic for each Bollinger band is very strong. As long as M7 is declining, UD (1410) is our main resistance and 795 is our first support.
Idea: bullish dynamic for UQ.
Medium term: bearish parallels pattern
On a weekly basis, a bearish parallels pattern is in progress. For our 7 / 23 weeks moving averages, a bearish non-crossover is in progress and the bearish dynamic will continue to improve over the next periods. The status for our stochastic and MACD is a bearish non-crossover. UD (1410) is our main resistance and 795 is an objective if 1000 fails as a support.
Idea: use bearish parallel rules.
Short term: Bollinger bands spread is minimal
On a daily basis, Bollinger bands spread is minimal. With a close below PD (1153) + bullish dynamic for UD + new low at the next period, a bearish T2 will be in hand.
Idea: a bearish ATDMF pattern could develop soon.
Conclusion: towards 795 or below if 1 000 fails as a support.
Indice Nikkeï 7/11/2008
Long term: towards LY (4918)
On a yearly basis, LY (4918) is our main support.
On a quarterly basis, the status for our stochastic and MACD is overbought. The spread UQ / LQ is wide but extend. For our 7 / 23 quarters moving averages, a bearish A type crossover is expected. LY (4918) is our first target.
On a monthly basis, a strong bear trend is in progress.
Idea: stay short.
Medium term: bearish parallels pattern
On a weekly basis, a bearish parallels pattern is in progress (bearish crossover PW / MW + divergence for Bollinger bands).
Idea: use bearish parallels rules.
Short term: towards LD (7501)
On a daily basis, the status for our 7 / 23 days moving averages will be a bullish B type crossover. Stochastic and MACD will be overbought. Bollinger bands spread is not minimal. A bearish pre-parallel pattern could develop if LD (7501) acts as a support and MD act as a resistance.
Idea: LD will act as a support.
Conclusion: towards LY (4918).
S&P 500 7/11/2008
Long term basis: Yearly bearish divergence with our stochastic and MACD => PY (768) as a first target
On a yearly basis, a bullish parallels pattern is in progress but next pattern (end of Q4) for our MACD will be a bearish divergence. Furthermore, our MACD will be overbought before our stochastic: a sharp decline is in progress. Below PY (768), the collapse in progress could amplify. 700 and LY (114) are our next supports. We wrote LY could be a target!!!.
On a quarterly basis, Bollinger bands spread increase. The dynamic for our 7 quarters moving averages is strong and will increase for 5 periods or more. A bearish A type crossover is likely. Since the end of March 08 a bearish divergence is the status for our MACD. This is the status for our stochastic since December 2007. PY (768) is our first target.
On a monthly basis; next month, a bearish crossover PM / MM + increase of the dynamic for UM is expected. A bearish A type crossover is in progress for our 7 / 23 months moving averages. The bear trend for our moving averages will increase until the end of 2008. The status for our stochastic and MACD is a bearish non-crossover. PY (768) is our first target.
Idea: below PY (768), 700 and LY (114) could be our next target.
Medium term: bearish as long as MW (1173) = resistance
On a weekly basis, the status for our 7 / 23 weeks moving averages is a bearish non-crossover. With a MACD overbought before our stochastic, a strong move is expected (current pattern could be / is a bearish non-crossover). Bearish as long as MW (1173) prove to be a resistance.
Idea: not bullish as long as M23 trend is down.
Short term: Bollinger bands spread is minimal
On a daily basis, UD acted as a resistance. Bollinger bands spread is minimal. If LD (861) act as a support, a bearish pre-parallel pattern could develop if MD (938) prove to be a resistance. Above MD, UD (1015) is our next objective. If LD fails as a support + bullish dynamic for UD + new low, a bearish ATDMF pattern could develop.
Idea: below LD + up trend for UD.
Conclusion: monthly bearish parallel will be the pattern for 2009
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