Archives mensuelles : septembre 2009

Natural gas: lower

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Yearly trend: main trend is bearish

On a yearly basis, our 7 periods moving average is and will stay bearish for some periods. Our stochastic is overbought.

Idea: 1998 low at 1.95 could be a target.

 

Long term: bear trend

On a quarterly basis, Bollinger bands spread is above its (previous) maximal level but increase. A bearish A type crossover is in progress with our 7 / 23 quarters moving averages. Our stochastic and MACD are overbought for some periods.

On a monthly basis, our analysis is the same as the quarterly one.

Idea: next pattern for our monthly stochastic could be a bearish non-crossover.

R = PM (5.08);    S = 1.95

 

Medium term: bearish parallel pattern

On a weekly basis, a bearish parallel pattern is in progress since 10 of August. As long as MW proves to be a resistance, the bear trend could amplify.

Idea: use bearish parallel rules

R = MW (3.607);    S = 1.95

 

 Short term: neutral

On a daily basis, UD / LD spread is not far away from its minimal level. UD is a strong resistance and LD could fail as a support.

Idea: a bearish ATDMF could develop with a close below LD.

 

R = UD (3.249);    S = LD (2.59)

 

 

Conclusion: very bearish as long as MW (3.607) proves to be a resistance.

 

S & P 500: focus on monthly Bollinger moving average

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Long term basis: Yearly bearish divergence with our stochastic and MACD => 500 as a first target

On a yearly basis, the status for our MACD is a bearish divergence. Furthermore, our MACD and stochastic are overbought at the same period: a sharp decline is expected. The collapse in progress could amplify. 500 and LY are our next supports.

On a quarterly basis, Bollinger bands spread increase. The dynamic for our 7 quarters moving average is strong and will increase for 3 periods or more. A bearish A type crossover is in progress with our 7 / 23 quarters moving averages (in 2002, the crossover was a bearish B type). Before next Q1, with a bearish non-crossover for our stochastic a collapse towards LY is expected. On a monthly basis; a bearish parallel pattern is in progress as long as MM proves to be a resistance (end of period).

Idea: a yearly bearish divergence is the status for our stochastic and MACD. The correction of the XX century bullish trend is in progress => bear trend for one decade or more.

R = below MM (1065.3);    S = LW (844.13), 666 (current low), 500, LY (186)

 

Medium term: like a bullish pre-parallel pattern in June 09

On a weekly basis, Bollinger band spread is not minimal. A weak bullish non-crossover is in progress with our 7 / 23 weeks moving averages. Next week, this status will be the same for our stochastic and MACD. As long as MW acts as a support, the recovery in progress could continue or amplify towards or above MM.

Idea: towards LW if MW fails as a support 

R = MM (1065.3);    S= MW (947), LW (844)

 

Short term: Bollinger bands spread is minimal

On a daily basis, Bollinger bands spread is minimal. A bullish non-crossover is the status for our 7 / 23 days moving averages. With a new rise next Wednesday a bull move will develop. As long as LD proves to be a support, a decline is only a technical correction.

Idea: focus on Wednesday trend.

R = MM (1065.3, at the close) ;       S= LD (982)

 

Conclusion: as long as MM (1065.3) proves to be a resistance at the close, the rise in progress is only a technical rally in a long term (year (s)) bear market.

 

 

€-Bund: lower

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Long term: new pattern, early next year

On a quarterly basis, our 7 / 23 quarters moving averages are up. Our stochastic and MACD could be overbought at the end of Q3 or Q4. With this hypothesis, a bearish divergence will be the status for our stochastic and MACD.  With the 10 Y T-Note, a bearish divergence is in progress, only, with our stochastic. With a close below MQ, this hypothesis will be likely.  The decline will be more powerful with European contract:  € could rise against $ until the end of 2011.

On a monthly basis, a decline could develop in line with the current overbought status for our stochastic and MACD if PM fails as a support. With the Bollinger bands spread, LM will be a very strong support.

Idea: bearish divergence for our stochastic at the end of Q3.

R= UW (123.4);   S= MM (118.55), PM (116.64)

           

Medium term: UW / LW spread is not far away from its minimal level.

On a weekly basis (continuous contract), a bearish A type crossover is expected for our 7 / 23 weeks moving averages. With the monthly trend, no bearish ATDMF pattern could develop.  A bearish pre-parallel pattern is not ruled out. As long as MW proves to be a resistance, the trend for this time is bearish.

Idea: not higher than UW

R = MW (120.99), UW (123.4);   S = MM (118.55),

 

Short term: UD / LD spread is not minimal

On a daily basis, UD and LD are flat with a close below LD.  The status for our stochastic and MACD is a bearish non-crossover.  A bearish A type crossover will be the next status for our 7 / 23 days moving averages. The decline could continue towards MM. Afterwards, a bearish pre-parallel pattern could develop.

Idea: MD is a strong resistance.

R = MD (122.24);   S = MM (118.55)

 

 Conclusion: new bear trend below PM (116.64).

 

Edito : la fin de l’année va être sportive

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Les mouvements observés hier sur les devises sont la résultante des fluctuations sur les contrats de taux. Ceci indique que nos observations faites depuis mai dernier sur le 10 Y T-Note vont se propager comme prévu. Celles et ceux qui pratiquent l’ATDMF 2007 savent ce que cela signifie sur l’ensemble des marchés.

Formations ATDMF :

 renseignements et inscription en faisant une demande sur atdmfcahen@yahoo.fr

€ / $: nothing to do on a daily basis.

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   Long term: higher next year

On a yearly basis, Bollinger band spread is not minimal, LY is flat but UY is rising. Our 7 / 23 moving averages are up and our MACD will not be overbought before two periods or more. UY could be a target.

On a quarterly basis, the trend for our 7 / 23 quarters moving averages is neutral.  Our stochastic and MACD are overbought but could be neutral / oversold at the end of 2009. As long as MQ proves to be a support, UQ / PQ is our main target.

On a monthly basis, the UM / LM spread is maximal. A bullish B type crossover could be the next status for our 7 / 23 months moving averages. The status for our stochastic and MACD is oversold. Above 1.4719, UY is our main target.

Idea: higher as long as MQ = support

R = 1.4719 (Dec 08 high), UY (1.4943), UQ (1.5494);    S= MQ (1.3443)

 

Medium term: UW = resistance

On a weekly basis, UW / LW spread is not minimal. UW is flat. M23 will stay up for some periods. As long as MW proves to be a support, a decline is only a technical move. Below MW, LW will be a very strong support.

Idea: with UW / LW spread, out of this time frame.

R = UW (1.4606), 1.4719;       S = MW (1.4015), LW (1.3424)

 

Short term: UD / LD spread is minimallrt term: no trend965Y (1.4243amilliales) enance personnelle.tellis

On a daily basis, Bollinger band spread is increasing.  With UW resistance, no bullish ATDMF pattern could develop.

R = UW (1.4606);           S = MD (1.4287)

 

Conclusion: short time rally will fade away.

 

Edito : hausse de l’once d’or ?

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La hausse des cours de l’or au-dessus du seuil psychologique des 1 000 $ l’once sera probablement effective cette semaine. Cependant, avant de rêver à des niveaux bien plus élevés, il sera nécessaire d’atteindre 1033 $ et de pouvoir rester au-dessus. Ce n’est pas obligatoirement pour tout de suite.  

Gold : 1000 $ yes, above 1033 $: ?

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Yearly trend: bullish for more than 2 years.

On a yearly basis, a bullish parallel pattern is in progress. The dynamic for each band is very strong. PY will cross MY in more than two periods.

Idea: bullish non-crossover for our stochastic.

 

Long term: bullish above Historical High (1033)

On a quarterly basis, the pattern is a bullish parallel one. The dynamic for our 7 / 23 quarters moving averages is bullish. The status in progress for our MACD could be a bullish non-crossover (at Q3 close). Above 1033 a new bull move will develop. On a monthly basis, Bollinger bands spread is not minimal but could continue to increase. Our 7 / 23 moving averages will continue to rise with a bullish non-crossover as a status. A weak bullish non-crossover is in progress with our stochastic.

Idea:  1033 as a first target if PM (1006.5) fails as a resistance.

R = PM (1006.5), 1033, UQ (1053), +++;    S = MM (900)

 

Medium term: higher (?) but not bullish

On a weekly basis, Bollinger bands spread is not minimal and Bollinger bands are not expending after a close above UW. Our 7 / 23 weeks moving averages are up with a bullish non-crossover. As long as our MACD is not overbought, the rise will continue.

Idea: nothing to do as long as 1033 = resistance

R = PM (1006.5);    S = MW (943.6)

  

Short term: no ATDMF bullish pattern (at the time being)

On a daily basis, UD / LD spread is expending. Our 7 / 23 days moving averages are up (bullish A type crossover). A bullish non-crossover is in progress with our MACD. As long as our MACD is not overbought, the rise in progress could continue.

Idea: Bullish parallel pattern with a bullish crossover PD / MD + LD lower and 1033 fails as a resistance.

 

R = PM (1006.5), 1033, +;    S = 980 (03/09 top)

  

Conclusion: bullish above 1033.

 

Edito : indices boursiers

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Il est urgent de patienter jusqu’au début octobre afin de constater l’état de notre stochastique trimestriel : non-croisement baissier ou survendu. Celles et ceux qui pratiquent l’ATDMF 2007 savent ce que ceci implique.

Formations ATDMF : dates et renseignements  atdmfcahen@yahoo.fr

CAC 40 : anticiper l’état du stochastique trimestriel

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Long term: bearish as long as MM proves to be a resistance

On a yearly basis, our stochastic is overbought.

On a quarterly basis; with a new decline, a nice dynamic could be in progress with each Bollinger band. With our 7 / 23 quarters moving averages a bearish A type crossover could develop. Our MACD could not be oversold before two periods or more. If the next status of our stochastic is a bearish non-crossover, a collapse will be in hand. On a monthly basis; a bearish parallel pattern is in progress as long as MM proves to be a resistance. PM failed as a resistance with M7 trend which is up. Above MM, MQ is our next target.

Idea: bearish non-crossover for our quarterly stochastic if MM = resistance.

 

R = MM (3768), MQ (4538);   S = MW (3300), LW (2939)

 

Medium term: technical recovery

On a weekly basis, a bullish non-crossover is in progress with our 7 / 23 weeks moving averages. With the monthly trend, no bullish ATDMF pattern could develop. With a close below MW, LW is our next target.

Idea: with UW / LW spread + monthly trend, this time frame will stay choppy without main trend.

R = MM (3768);   S = MW (3300), LW (2939)

  

Short term: UD / LD spread is not minimal

On a daily basis, a bearish A type crossover could develop with our  7 / 23 days moving averages. With Bollinger band spread, a bearish pre-parallel pattern could develop in September.

Idea: nothing to do next week.

R = UD (3725);     S= LD (3386)

 

Conclusion: as long as MM (3768) proves to be a resistance, the rise in progress is only a technical recovery.