Long term: new bear trend

On a yearly basis, UY is flat. The trend for our 7 / 23 years moving averages is not bearish. Our stochastic could be overbought at the end of this period.  Below MY, the main trend will be bearish.

On a quarterly basis, for our stochastic the status is a bearish divergence. With this hypothesis, MQ is our first support. LQ is flat.  On a monthly basis, our 7 / 23 moving averages are not bearish. A bearish B type crossover is not ruled out before this autumn. The pattern with our Bollinger bands was like a bullish parallel one but a close occurred below MM. A bearish non-crossover is the status for our stochastic (and a bearish divergence is in progress). LM is our next objective.

Idea: a bearish divergence on a yearly time frame could develop.

 R = MW (120.32);    S = MQ (112.2), LM (110.31), MY (109.39), PQ (109.46), LQ (101.96)

Medium term: bearish without ATDMF pattern

On a weekly basis, a bearish crossover PW / MW occurred last week without a significant rise.  The status for our 7 / 23 years moving averages is a bearish A type crossover.  As long as our MACD is not oversold, the decline in progress could continue or amplify. PW is a strong resistance.

Idea: bearish non-crossover for our weekly stochastic

R = PW (118.29);      S = LM (110.31), –

Short term: toppish

On a daily basis, a bullish non-crossover is the status for our MACD. The status for our 7 / 23 days moving averages is a bearish B type crossover. Below MD, LD is our next target.

R = UD (116.82);       S = MD (114.8), LD (112.92), LM (109.81)

Conclusion: with a bearish divergence as a status for our yearly stochastic (end of 2009), a Major financial crisis will develop.