Actuellement, selon l’ATDMF, l’investissement le moins risqué est le marché de l’or. Depuis 1970 j’ai été un opérateur (particulièrement) actif sur les différentes formes de ce marché. Durant notre formation de base à l’ATDMF, les prévisions à court, moyen et long terme sont analysées et expliquées.
Débutant, 1 place de disponible du 20 au 22 octobre.
Renseignements : atdmfcahen@yahoo.fr
Long term: higher
On a monthly basis, the status for our 7 / 23 months moving averages is a bullish A type crossover. Stochastic and MACD are not yet overbought. With Bollinger bands, the pattern in progress is a weak bullish parallel one (no correction 2 periods after MM / PM crossover + LM without bullish dynamic).
Idea: use bullish parallel rules
R = UW (99.442); S = PW (99.133), MW (98.992)
Medium term: technical correction
On a weekly basis, a bearish non-crossover is the status for our MACD. Our 7 / 23 weeks moving averages are up. PW could fail as a support.
Idea: MW is a strong support.
R = MD (99.267); S = PW (99.133), MW (98.992)
Short term: below LD
On a daily basis, UD is flat with prices on LD level. With the weekly trend, no bearish pattern could develop. The status for our stochastic and MACD is a bearish non-crossover. PW is our first target.
Idea: a bearish pre-parallel pattern could develop in early November.
R = MD (99.267); S = PW (99.133), MW (98.992)
Conclusion: not bearish as long as our 7 / 23 weeks moving average status is not a bearish A type crossover.
Hier durant notre formation au trading achat à l’ouverture de call warrant sur l’or échéance 06/2010 avec un strike à 1100 puis dans la journée vente de GPB / CAD avec un rachat en fin d’après midi.
Aujourd’hui les mêmes opérations sont au programme.
Vu la profondeur des mouvements à venir les opérateurs en intraday et les investisseurs sur le long terme vont avoir du travail.
Vous souhaitez pouvoir opérer comme nous : formations ATDMF de base sur 3 jours et de trading professionnel pendant une semaine pour un seul participant.
Renseignements : atdmfcahen@yahoo.fr
Long term: below historical low
On a quarterly basis, Bollinger bands spread will continue to increase. The trend for our 7 / 23 quarters moving averages will stay bearish for three periods or more. The status for our MACD is a bearish non-crossover with an overbought status for our stochastic.
On a monthly basis, the UM / LM spread is not minimal but expending. A bearish non-crossover will be the next status for our 7 / 23 months moving averages. The status for our stochastic and MACD is overbought. The bear trend will continue and could amplify.
Idea: like a quarterly bearish pre-parallel pattern.
R = MQ (10.08); S= New Historical Low and – – –
Medium term: bearish parallel pattern
On a weekly basis, a bearish crossover PW / MW occurred with a nice dynamic for UW. A bearish A type crossover is in progress with our 7 / 23 weeks moving averages. A bearish non-crossover could be the next status for our stochastic. A bearish parallel pattern is in progress.
Idea: a dive is expected for some periods.
R = PD (9.2495), MD (9.4561); S = NHL
Short term: bearish parallel pattern
On a daily basis, a bearish pattern is in progress.
Idea: use bearish parallel rules.
R = PD (9.2495), MD (9.4562); S = NHL
Conclusion: As long as MD proves to be a resistance, a strong bear trend will continue to develop.
Yearly trend: bullish for more than 2 years.
On a yearly basis, a bullish parallel pattern is in progress. The dynamic for each band is very strong. PY will cross MY in more than two periods.
Idea: bullish non-crossover for our stochastic.
Long term: bullish above Historical High (1033)
On a quarterly basis, the pattern is a bullish parallel one. The dynamic for our 7 / 23 quarters moving averages is bullish. The status in progress for our MACD is a bullish non-crossover with an oversold status for our stochastic. Above 1033 a new bull move will develop.
On a monthly basis, a new bearish dynamic is in progress with LM. Our 7 / 23 moving averages will continue to rise with a weak bullish non-crossover as a status. With our stochastic, the status is similar. As long as MM proves to be a support, a decline is only a technical move.
Idea: very bullish as soon as 1033 fails as a resistance
R = 1033, UQ (1093), +++; S = MM (904)
Medium term: spread UW / LW will increase with higher prices
On a weekly basis, Bollinger bands spread is not yet minimal. But, spread UW / LW will increase with higher prices. Our 7 / 23 weeks moving averages are up with a bullish non-crossover as a status. The same pattern is in progress our stochastic and MACD. PW is a strong support.
Idea: prices will soar very soon.
R = 1033; UQ (1093), +++; S = PW (961)
Short term: UD / LD spread is not yet minimal.
On a daily basis, a bullish pre-parallel pattern could develop. Afterwards a bullish trend is expected.
Idea: very bullish if MD proves to be a support until mid-October.
R = 1033; UQ (1093), +++; S = MD (1003)
Conclusion: add long positions for multi year’s investments and for an “special” increase before January 2010. Stop-loss LD (987)
Ceci pourrait être vrai sur les principaux indices. Si cette hypothèse se confirme : l’effondrement des indices observés à partir d’octobre 1929 deviendra une faible baisse en comparaison de ce qui sera attendu.
Cette menace pourrait ne pas pouvoir être écartée avant le 2 janvier 2010.
Pour apprendre à utiliser les non-croisements (spécificité ATDMF utilisable sur tous les marchés financiers en intraday comme à plus long terme), suivez la formation ATDMF.
Renseignements (dates, prix, contenu et conditions) en faisant une demande à : atdmfcahen@yahoo.fr
Philippe Cahen, Ingénieur CNAM : 40 ans de pratique de l’analyse technique dont plus de 20 en salles de marchés. Nombreuses publications et interviews dans la presse nationale depuis 1982.
Long term basis: Yearly bearish divergence with our stochastic and MACD => 500 as a first target
On a yearly basis, the status for our MACD is a bearish divergence. Furthermore, our MACD and stochastic are overbought at the same period: a sharp decline is expected. The collapse in progress could amplify. 500 and LY are our next supports.
On a quarterly basis, Bollinger bands spread could increase with a new decline. The bearish dynamic for our 7 quarters moving average is always in progress. A bearish A type crossover is in progress with our 7 / 23 quarters moving averages (in 2002, the crossover was a bearish B type). With a bearish non-crossover for our stochastic a collapse towards LY is expected.
On a monthly basis; a bearish parallel pattern is in progress as long as MM proves to be a resistance (end of period).
Idea: a yearly bearish divergence is the status for our stochastic and MACD. The correction of the XX century bullish trend is in progress => bear trend for one decade or more.
R = below MM (1050.8); S = LW (857), 666 (current low), 500, LY (186)
Medium term: rise?
On a weekly basis, Bollinger band spread is not minimal. A weak bullish non-crossover is in progress with our 7 / 23 weeks moving averages. As long as our MACD is not overbought (end of a week), the rise in progress could continue.
Idea: towards MW with an overbought status for our MACD and towards LW if MW fails as a support.
R = MM (150.8); S= MW (971.95), LW (857)
Short term: towards LD
On a daily basis, Bollinger bands spread is not minimal. A bearish A / B type crossover could be the status for our 7 / 23 days moving averages. A bearish non-crossover is in progress with our stochastic and MACD. LD will be our next target. As long as LD proves to be a support, a decline is only a technical correction.
Idea: bearish pre-parallel pattern in October.
R = MM (1050.8) S= LD (1010)
Conclusion: as long as MM (1050.8) proves to be a resistance at the close, the rise in progress is only a technical rally in a long term (year (s)) bear market.
La hausse des taux aux USA observée depuis plusieurs mois est le début d’un mouvement qui pourrait être historique.
Selon l’ATDMF, les relations inter-marchés sont hiérarchisées. Au sommet de la pyramide se trouvent les marchés de taux. Depuis 1982, le signal d’inversion de tendance n’a jamais été aussi puissant. Le mouvement en cours aura forcément des répercussions sur les autres marchés.
Si nous utilisons l’analyse technique, c’est pour anticiper comment les marchés vont évoluer. La solution qui consiste à chercher dans le passé une situation comparable pour prévoir l’avenir n’est pas appropriée puisque l’environnement (économique, technologique, écologique) est en pleine mutation. Il faut donc chercher quel(s) marché(s) présentera (ont) une situation exceptionnelle dans un proche avenir, afin de pouvoir anticiper un décalage de cours inimaginable actuellement.
Long term: new bear trend?
On a yearly basis, Bollinger bands could be flat next period. The trend for our 7 / 23 years moving averages is slightly up. Our stochastic could be overbought at the end of this period with a bearish divergence. Below MY, the main trend will be bearish.
On a quarterly basis, for our stochastic the status is a bearish divergence (worst for the 30 Y US T-Bond contract). With this hypothesis, MQ is our first support. LQ is flat. PQ could act as a support.
On a monthly basis, UM / LM spread is near its maximal level. A bearish B type crossover could develop for our 7 / 23 months moving. A bearish non-crossover could be the status for our stochastic (and a bearish divergence is in progress). LM is our next objective.
Idea: LM is a very strong support.
R = UW (119.56), UM (124.89); S = LM (110.97), PQ (109.46)
Medium term: towards UW
On a weekly basis, UW / LW spread is near its minimal level. Our 23 weeks moving average will continue to decline. The status for our stochastic and for our MACD is a bullish non-crossover.
Idea: as long as our MACD is not overbought, UW is our first resistance.
R = UW (119.56); S = MW (116.81), LW (114.06)
Short term: neutral
On a daily basis, UD / LD spread is minimal. Moving averages, stochastic and MACD are up without a bullish non-crossover. With our weekly trend, no bullish ATDMF pattern could develop.
Idea: nothing to do.
R = UW (119.56); S = MD (117.46), LD (116.56)
Conclusion: with a bearish divergence as a status for our quarterly stochastic, a similar pattern could develop on the yearly basis.