Long term: LM (109.84) as a target is not ruled out

On a quarterly basis, our 7 / 23 quarters moving averages are up. Our stochastic and MACD could be overbought at the end of Q3 or Q4. With this hypothesis, a bearish divergence will be the status for our stochastic and MACD and LQ could be a target.  With the 10 Y T-Note; a bearish divergence is in progress, only, with our stochastic. With a close below MQ, this hypothesis will be likely.  € will rise against $ until the end of 2011.

On a monthly basis, a decline could develop in line with the current overbought status for our stochastic and MACD. If PM fails as a support, LQ / LM will be our next objective. With the Bollinger bands spread, LM will be a very strong support.

Idea: bearish divergence for our stochastic at the end of Q3 or Q4 2009.

R= UW (123.2);   S= MQ (117.69), PM (116.64), LQ / LM (109.84)

Medium term: UW / LW spread will be minimal soon…

On a weekly basis (continuous contract), a bearish A type crossover is expected for our 7 / 23 weeks moving averages. With the monthly trend, no bearish ATDMF pattern could develop.  A bearish pre-parallel pattern is not ruled out in October / November. Below PW, more weakness is ahead.

Idea: not higher than UW

R = MW (120.68), UW (123.2);   S = LW (118.63), PM (116.64),

Short term: UD / LD spread is minimal

On a daily basis (Dec. basis), UD and LD are flat without a bearish T1 (see weekly status for continuous contract).  The status for our stochastic and MACD is a bearish non-crossover.  A bearish A type crossover will be the next status for our 7 / 23 days moving averages. LW could be a target within one month.

Idea: UD is a strong resistance.

R = UD (121.63);   S = PD (120.23, Dec 09), LW (118.63, Cont.)

Conclusion: new bear trend below PM (116.64).