Archives mensuelles : mai 2010

Edito : Les véritables amis,

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Comme bien souvent, les véritables amis ne sont pas devant vous …

Sur les marchés, c’est pareil. Personne ne parle de l’évolution des contrats de taux. Pourtant, sur le contrat le plus traité dans le monde, il y a des signaux (à vérifier début juin) d’une puissance jamais observée depuis la création des marchés financiers. Si ce « fly to quality » se confirme, des modifications fondamentales dans le prix des actifs financiers vont intervenir.

Si vous pensez que notre analyse sur le contrat du 10 Y T-Note ne vous concerne pas, il est temps que vous oubliez les opérations sur les marchés financiers. Si vous ne comprenez pas notre analyse, demandez à un professionnel de vous l’expliquer. Si cela ne lui dit rien de particulier, ceci signifie que vous avez tiré la mauvaise carte…

Vous pouvez également faire appel à l’ATDMF.

Le 21 mai présentation gratuite de l’ATDMF.  Renseignements : atdmfcahen@yahoo.fr

Analysis: a new capitalist world could develop…

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Long term: towards UM???

On a yearly basis, Bollinger bands spread is shrinking. The trend for our 7 / 23 years moving averages is slightly up. Our stochastic is oversold with a weak bullish no-crossover. The same pattern is in progress for our MACD.

On a quarterly basis, LQ is slightly up but the UQ / LQ spread is wide. A bullish A type crossover is in progress with our 7 / 23 quarters moving averages. Our stochastic and MACD are overbought. Next period, a new pattern could emerge. As long as PQ proves to be a support, the decline in progress is only a technical move.

On a monthly basis, a bearish divergence is in progress for our stochastic. This pattern could / will be over at the end of the period. .Our MACD could be oversold too. With UM / LM spread; next month, UM / PM will be our main objective.

Idea: this change of analysis for long terms patterns was never seen (since 1970) in one week (have to be checked in early June)

Bet: next, fly to quality due to Historical Collapse for stock markets / old capitalism

 R = UM (124.59);    S = LM (113.75)

 

Medium term: Bollinger bands spread is minimal

On a weekly basis, a bullish pre-parallel will develop due to monthly MACD pattern. Our 7 / 23 weeks moving averages are not yet bullish.

Idea: MW is a strong support

Bet: if prices continue to rise, a special powerful up move will be in hand

R = UW (118.78), 121.23;      S = MW (117)

 

Short term: rise without bullish pattern

Idea: rise as long as our MACD is not overbought

Bet: MD = strong support

R = UW (118.78);       S = MD (116.94)

 

Conclusion: a new capitalist world could develop…

 

€ / $: collapse on a weekly basis

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Long term: MY is the first target

On a yearly basis, Bollinger band spread is not minimal and could stay at the same level for some periods. Our 7 / 23 years moving averages will be without main trend. Our stochastic could be overbought next period. Our MACD is not overbought. MY is the first objective.

On a quarterly basis, the status for our stochastic and MACD is a bearish no-crossover. Next pattern for our 7 / 23 quarters moving averages will be a bearish A type crossover. LQ is our first support.

On a monthly basis, the UM / LM spread was maximal but shrinking. A bearish A type crossover is the status for our 7 / 23 months moving averages. The status for our stochastic and MACD is overbought. As long as our MACD is not oversold, LM / MY is our next target.

Idea: bearish as long as our quarterly stochastic is not oversold

Bet: LQ could fail as a support

R = MM (1.374);    S=  MY (1.2101), LQ (1.1545)

 

Medium term: bearish parallel pattern

On a weekly basis, a bearish parallel pattern is in progress.

Idea: use bearish parallel rules

Bet: collapse

R = MW (1.3742);     S = LM (1.2444)

 

 

Short term: lower

On a daily basis, UD / LD spread is increasing. A bearish no-crossover is in progress our stochastic and MACD. As long as our MACD is not oversold, the decline in progress will continue.

Idea: bearish without ATDMF pattern

Bet: a qualification into a bearish parallel pattern could develop with the bearish crossover PD / MD.

R = MD (1.3362);   S = LM (1.2444)

 

Conclusion: LM (1.2444) = first objective.

 

Gold: S&P 500 (1980-1990) as a benchmark?

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Yearly trend: in 2012 /2013, qualification in a new bullish parallel pattern

On a yearly basis, a bullish parallel pattern is in progress with a strong dynamic for MY. The dynamic for each band is very strong. PY will cross MY in more than one period. On a Historical basis, one of the most bullish patterns ever seen (since the end of XIX century). 

Idea: bullish no-crossover for our stochastic.

Bet: S&P 500 in the 80 as a benchmark.

 

Long term: quarterly bullish parallel pattern

On a quarterly basis, the pattern is a bullish parallel one. The dynamic for our 7 / 23 quarters moving averages is strong. The status in progress for our MACD is a bullish no-crossover. Same pattern will emerge for stochastic at the end of this period if prices are above 1152.

On a monthly basis, our 7 / 23 months moving averages are up with a bullish no-crossover in progress. Our stochastic is oversold. A bullish no-crossover is in progress with our MACD. MM is a strong support. A bullish no-crossover PM / MM could develop.

Idea: with an oversold status for our monthly stochastic (end of period), a new high is in hand

Bet: with a monthly close above 1180, our Yearly Bet will be our main forecast for some years

R = rise > 2 years, +++ (could be above 2 000);    S = MM (989)

 

 

 Medium term: bullish T2

On a weekly basis, a bullish T2 is in progress.

Idea: LW trend is our leading indicator

Bet: parallel or bubble

 

R = 1220, 1430,        S = MW (1120)

 

Short term: Bollinger bands spread is not minimal

On a daily basis; a bullish no-crossover is in progress with our 7 / 2 3days moving averages. MD is up. As long as our MACD is not overbought, the rise in progress will continue.

Idea: not lower than LD

Bet: MD = support without a bullish pre-parallel pattern

 

R = 1220;           S = MD (1156), LD (1129)

 

Conclusion: for 6 weeks, LW trend is the key to know if the name of the new € is GOLD.