Archives mensuelles : septembre 2010

Gold: above 5.000 USD for one once?

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Dow-Jones and Gold analysis (yearly basis)

 

Between 1986 and 2000 the Dow had prices * 6 (1900 to 11750). With ATDMF analysis, current price for gold is at the same level than Dow in 1986.

Annual Dow-Jones in 1986:

A bullish T1 occurred after a bullish no-crossover for our 7 / 23 years moving averages and a bullish no-crossover for our stochastic. Bollinger bands spread was tiny but higher than the1950 one. The pattern in progress was a bullish parallel one. For the next 3 periods, the slope for our 7 / 23 years moving averages was very bullish: a new qualification in bullish parallel was in hand. Afterwards, ATDMF criteria for a confirmation of this pattern were added periods after periods.

 

For gold in 2010 the Bollinger bands spread was minimal when a T1 occurred. The trend for LY is stronger than the Dow one. A bullish A type crossover occurred before T1 instead of a bullish no-crossover for our moving averages and stochastic. But, two periods before PY / MY crossover (2010 for gold and 1986 for Dow) a bullish no-crossover is in progress for gold Vs an overbought status for Dow. Then, a new qualification in parallel is due for annual gold. The forward slope for our 7 / 23 years moving averages give a confirmation that prices will continue to rise over the next 4 periods.

 

The comparison between exceptional information for Dow and Gold give us the idea that prices for gold will soar for several years.

 

To be sure that this scenario continues, use ATDMF 2010 rules on a shorter time frame for checking confirmations.

 

 

 

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S & P 500: choppy without main trend

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Long term basis: Yearly bearish divergence with our stochastic and MACD => 500 as a first target

On a yearly basis, the status for our MACD is a bearish divergence. Furthermore, our MACD and stochastic are overbought at the same period: a sharp decline is expected. Below MY, a collapse could develop and amplify. 666, 500 and LY are our next supports.

On a quarterly basis, a bearish A type crossover is in progress with our 7 / 23 quarters moving averages (in 2002, the crossover was a bearish B type). MQ acts as a resistance. With a bearish no-crossover as a status for our MACD (end of period), LQ is our first support. If Bollinger bands spread increase, 666 (2009 low) will be our next target. The Collapse will continue as long as our MACD will be not oversold (end of period).

On a monthly basis, Bollinger bands spread is wide. UM should act as a strong resistance. The status for our 7 / 23 months moving averages is not yet a bullish A type. Our stochastic is overbought and our MACD is neutral. Below MM, LM will be our main support.

Idea: not bullish as long as MQ proves to be a resistance

Bet: decline with a close below MM and bearish with a bearish no-crossover for our quarterly MACD.

R = MQ (1212), UM (1253);    S = MM (1020), LM (788), 666 (current low), 500, LY (277)

 

Medium term: not higher than UW

On a weekly basis, the status for our 7 / 23 weeks moving averages is neutral but a bearish no-crossover could develop. The status in progress for our stochastic is a bullish no-crossover. Above MW our targets are 1132 level (June 2010 high) and UW. If MW proves to be a resistance (end of period) then LW will be our main objective.

Idea: tonight close will give the way

Bet: not higher than June level

 

R = MW (1100), 1132, UW (1182);    S= MW /MM (1020)

 

Short term: same analysis than medium term

On a daily basis; above 1100, UD will be our next objective.  Otherwise, LD is our main support.

Idea: could turn bearish if 1100 act as a resistance

Bet: not higher than UD

 

R = UD (1125);                    S= MD (1079), LD (1033)

 

Conclusion:  next status could be a bearish no-crossover for our quarterly MACD….

 

 

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10Y T-Note: a technical correction is not ruled out

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Long term: higher on a yearly basis

On a yearly basis, the status for our 7 / 23 years moving averages is a bullish no-crossover. The same status is in progress for our stochastic and MACD. The rise in progress should extend for some periods. Current Historical high is only our first objective.

On a quarterly basis, UQ / LQ spread is wide but increasing. A bullish no-crossover is in progress with our 7 / 23 quarters moving averages. Our stochastic and MACD were oversold at the same time. Current Historical high is only our first objective.

On a monthly basis, our stochastic and MACD are oversold. The spread for Bollinger bands spread is wide and LM is flat. But, a technical correction towards MM is not ruled out.

Idea: bullish for some years                                                                                                                      

Bet: a technical correction until year‘s end could develop

 R = 128.7;    S = MM (119.5)

 

Medium term: bullish parallel pattern

On a weekly basis, our 7 / 23 weeks moving averages are up. A bullish parallel is in progress. The rise could amplify.

Idea: use bullish parallel rules

Bet: more decline below PW

R = 128.7;    S = PW (123.84), MW (121.78)

  

Short term: UD / LD spread could be minimal soon

On a daily basis, a bearish no-crossover is the status for our stochastic and MACD. M23 will stay up. A decline will be only a technical correction.

Idea: decline as long as our stochastic is not oversold

Bet: lower for one week or more.

R = MD (125.41), UD (126.65);    S = PW (123.84)

 

Conclusion: a technical correction until early 2011 could develop.

 

€ / $: bearish below 1.2510

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Long term: towards LQ is likely

On a yearly basis, Bollinger band spread is not minimal and could stay at the same level for some periods. Our 7 / 23 years moving averages will be without main trend. With an overbought status for our stochastic (early 2011), 1.164 (2005 low) is the first objective and LY is the next one.

On a quarterly basis, the status for our stochastic and MACD is a bearish no-crossover. Next pattern for our 7 / 23 quarters moving averages will be a bearish A type crossover. With this hypothesis, LQ is our first support.

On a monthly basis, the UM / LM spread is far away from its minimal level. A bearish A type crossover is the status for our 7 / 23 months moving averages. With a decline during this period, a bearish no-crossover will be the status for our stochastic and MACD. LQ will be our first objective.

Idea: bearish as long as our quarterly stochastic is not oversold (at least for 3 periods)

Bet: LQ is not our main support

R = MM (1.3604);    S= LM (1.2031), LQ (1.1567), LY (.9182)

 

Medium term: below PW, LW is our next target

On a weekly basis; in September, a bearish A type crossover will be the status for our 7 / 23 weeks moving averages. If PW fail as a support, our MACD will be overbought and LW will be our next objective.

Idea: bearish below PW

Bet: below PW if our weekly stochastic is overbought (end of period)

R = MD (1.285);     S = PW (1.251), LW (1.1963)

 

 Short term: bearish no-crossover with PD?

On a daily basis, a bearish A type crossover is in progress with our 7 / 23 days moving averages. As long as MD proves to be a resistance, a weak bearish no-crossover could emerge. If PD proves to be a resistance, a bearish parallel pattern will be in hand.

Idea: above PD, MD is our next objective

Bet: MD will act as a resistance.

R = PD (1.2764), MD (1.285);   S = PW (1.251), LD (1.2458)

 

Conclusion: LW (1.1963) is our main target in October.