Editorial,
Selon les critères de l’ATDMF, le S & P 500 est et va rester un marché « magnifique ». Pourquoi utiliser ce terme ? Les configurations en cours permettent une lisibilité sur un horizon compris entre 18 et 24 mois. La probabilité est maximale d’assister à une baisse de l’indice de 25% (par rapport aux cours actuels).
N’oublions pas que cet indice n’est pas secondaire. Ceci signifie que d’autres indices seront tentés / obligés ( ?) de l’imiter.
Rappelons que pour un analyste technique, un bon marché, c’est un marché pour lequel l’incertitude sur la tendance (haussière ou baissière) est minimale.
Dans les trente dernières années, il n’y a pas eu de marché aussi beau.
Indice S&P 500
Lae texte suivant est traduisible à l’aide de Yahoo Babel Fish.
Long term basis: Quarterly bearish divergence with our MACD => LQ / MY as a target
On a yearly basis, a bullish parallels pattern is in progress but next pattern for our MACD will be a bearish divergence. Furthermore, our MACD will be overbought before our stochastic: a sharp decline is underway.
On a quarterly basis, the dynamic for our 7 quarters moving averages is down. Since the end of March 08 a bearish divergence is the status for our MACD. This is the status for our stochastic since December 2007. LQ (1020) could be a target if MQ (1274, at the close) fails as a support.
On a monthly basis; a bearish A type crossover is in progress for our 7 / 23 months moving averages. The status for our stochastic and MACD is a bearish non-crossover. LQ (1020) is our first target.
Idea: over the next two periods; with a bear trend for our 7 months moving average, a collapse is expected until the end of Q3 2009.
Medium term: nice pattern
On a weekly basis; next week, our pattern will be a bearish parallels one if prices cross LW. Otherwise (with prices outside LW), a bearish bubble will be in progress.
Idea: a bearish parallels pattern is our guess.
Short term: bearish parallels pattern
On a daily basis; as long as MD (1303) prove to be a resistance, the bear trend will continue / amplify.
Idea: nice ATDMF pattern.
Conclusion: stay short and many thanks to ATDMF.