Le mois de février devrait être agité sur les devises car le niveau de volatilité est important sur une base quotidienne mais peu spectaculaire en ce qui concerne le franchissement de nouveaux extrêmes. Cette situation pourra faire le bonheur des opérateurs intraday et le désespoir des opérateurs à long terme.
Long term: a collapse is not ruled out
On a yearly basis, a close occurred below LY and Bollinger bands are slowly down. A bearish non-crossover is the status for our 7 / 23 years moving averages. Our stochastic is overbought. The decline in progress could continue.
On a quarterly basis, UQ / LQ spread is increasing and a bearish parallel pattern is in progress. On a monthly basis, a bearish pre-parallel pattern was in progress. Now the pattern is a bearish parallel one.
Idea: use bearish quarterly parallel rules.
R = PW (92.93); S = LW (84.47) and -.
Medium term: bearish parallel pattern
On a weekly basis, Bollinger bands spread was expending when a bearish crossover between MW and PW occurred. A bearish parallel pattern is in progress.
Idea: use bearish parallel rules.
R = PW (92.93); S = 87.13, LW (84.47)
Short term: flat
On a daily basis, the spread UD / LD is not minimal but is shrinking. Stochastic, MACD and 7 / 23 moving averages are flat. MD (89.69) is our first resistance and UD (91.16) is the next one. PD (87.79) = support.
Idea: bearish non-crossover for our 7 / 23 days moving averages if PD fails as a support.
R = MD (89.69); S = PD (87.79), LW (84.47)
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Conclusion: with a weekly bearish non-crossover as a status for our stochastic, a collapse could develop.
Velléité de reprise des cours de l’or. Tant que 947 ne sera pas dépassé, le mouvement de reprise reste technique. Une baisse des cours du WTI (échéance mars) au–dessous de 38 $ permettrait une amplification de la baisse des cours. En ce qui concerne la déflation, rien n’indique que cette idée doive être écartée pour les prochains mois.
Yearly trend: bullish for more than 2 years.
On a yearly basis, a bullish parallel pattern is in progress. The dynamic for each band is very strong. PY will cross MY in more than two periods.
Idea: bullish non-crossover for our stochastic.
Long term: above PQ (1018)?
On a quarterly basis, the pattern is a bullish parallel one. The dynamic for our 7 / 23 quarters moving averages is bullish. Next quarters, – 8 prices will increase. Without an increase for next prices, a bullish non-crossover could develop between our 7 / 23 quarters moving averages. The status in progress for our stochastic could be a bearish divergence. Above PQ (1018), a new bull trend could develop. On a monthly basis, Bollinger bands spread is wide. A bullish non-crossover for our 7 / 23 months moving averages could develop next month (see -8 prices). Above PM (946.6), UM (1005) is our next objective. MW (826) is a strong support.
Idea: Above PM (946.6) a long term rise could develop.
R = PQ (1018); S = MM (837) / MW (826)
Medium term: recovery
On a weekly basis, Bollinger bands spread is not minimal and LW is flat. The status for our 7 / 23 weeks moving averages is a bullish B type crossover. In last November a bullish non-crossover occurred with our stochastic and MACD. As long as our MACD is not overbought, the rise in progress will continue. PM (946.6) is our first target.
Idea: towards LW (714), if MW (at the close) fails as a support.
R = PM (946.6), UM (1008); S = MW (826)
Short term: higher?
On a daily basis, the spread UD / LD is expending. With our 7 / 23 days moving averages a bullish A type crossover is in progress. As long as our MACD is not overbought, the rise in progress will continue. MD (866) is our main support.
Idea: a bullish pre-parallel pattern could develop.
R = PM (946.6); S = MD (866)
Conclusion: towards PQ (1018) if UM (946.6) fails as a resistance.