Archives mensuelles : mars 2009

CAC 40 : bearish parallel pattern(s)

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Long term: towards 2400 or lower

On a yearly basis, see the dynamic for – 8 and next…MY failed as a support. 2400 is our first target. Our stochastic is overbought. 2400 should fail as a support. Below 2 000, LY (641) will be our next objective if 1000 fails as a support.

On a quarterly basis, our 7 / 23 quarters moving averages crossover is a bearish A type. Our MACD is overbought. A nice dynamic is in progress with each Bollinger band, 2400 is our next target.

On a monthly basis; the status for our stochastic is a bearish non-crossover is in progress. A bearish parallel pattern is in progress for 4 to 15(?) periods.

Idea: very bearish as long as monthly bearish parallel pattern is in progress.

R = MW (3103);   S =  2400, 2000, 1000,  LY (641)

 

Medium term: bearish parallel pattern

On a weekly basis, our bearish parallel pattern is always in progress.  A bearish non-crossover is the status for our 7 / 23 weeks moving averages. With this hypothesis, a collapse is not ruled out. 2400 is our next objective. As long as MW (3103) proves to be a resistance, a rise is only a technical recovery.

 Idea: a new bullish dynamic could develop for UW. With this hypothesis, a collapse is expected.

R = MW (3103);     S = 2400

 

Short term: bearish parallel pattern

On a daily basis, a bearish parallel pattern is in progress. With a bearish non-crossover for our MACD a powerful dive will develop.

Idea: use parallel rules and add short position with a bearish non-crossover for our MACD.

R = PD (2700?), MD (2825?);     S= LD , 2400.

 

Conclusion: medium term is very weak as long as MW (3103) proves to be a resistance.

Edito 03/03 Faiblesse de l’or.

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Dans un environnement déflationniste, l’or n’a aucune raison de progresser. Notre analyse le confirme du point de vue technique. Par ailleurs, il est tellement facile de réaliser des plus-values sur les indices boursiers, pourquoi aller chercher midi à quatorze heures.

Or : faiblesse

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Yearly trend: bullish for more than 2 years.

On a yearly basis, a bullish parallel pattern is in progress. The dynamic for each band is very strong. PY will cross MY in more than two periods.

Idea: bullish non-crossover for our stochastic.

 

Long term: weak as long as PQ (1018.8) proves to be a resistance.

On a quarterly basis, the pattern is a bullish parallel one. The dynamic for our 7 / 23 quarters moving averages is bullish. Next quarters, – 8 prices will increase. Without an increase for next prices, a bullish non-crossover could develop between our 7 / 23 quarters moving averages. The status in progress for our stochastic is a bearish divergence. A bearish non-crossover could be the next status for our stochastic. Above PQ (1018.8), a new bull trend could develop with a bullish non-crossover for our MACD and a strong bull trend for our 7 / 23 quarters moving averages. On a monthly basis, Bollinger bands spread is wide. A bullish non-crossover for our 7 / 23 months moving averages is in progress.  UM (1010) is our main resistance. MW (845) is a strong support.

Idea: monthly bearish divergences for our stochastic and MACD

R = UM (1010), PQ (1018.8), 1032.8, +;    S = MW (845.4)

 

Medium term: recovery / rise

On a weekly basis, Bollinger bands spread is not minimal but UW / LW spread is expending. Now, the status for our 7 / 23 weeks moving averages is a bullish A type crossover. In last November a bullish non-crossover occurred with our stochastic and MACD. As long as our MACD is not overbought, the rise in progress could continue.

Idea: recovery could continue…

R = UM (1010);    S = MW (845.4)

  

Short term: flat

On a daily basis, Bollinger bands spread is not minimal. With our 7 / 23 days moving averages a bearish B type crossover is expected. As long as our MACD is not oversold, LD (896) is our main target.

Idea: without trend.

 

R = UD (1004);      S = LD (896)

 

 

Conclusion: not bullish as long as PQ (1018.8) = resistance.