Archives mensuelles : avril 2009

Indice CAC 40 avec l’ATDMF : rebond = oui, reprise = pas encore

Le CAC 40, sur une base quotidienne, est techniquement en rebond technique. Le terme de hausse n’est pas adapté. Pour cela, il conviendrait que la tendance baissière sur le graphique hebdomadaire soit remise en cause (un franchissement du parabolique à 3041 serait un premier signal). Ce signal devrait être confirmé par un croisement de type A à la hausse de nos moyennes mobiles 7 / 23. Mais ceci est une autre histoire….

En revanche, l’anticipation du comportement du graphique trimestriel s’éloigne de plus en plus de celui observé à partir de 2000. Début juillet, il ne sera plus possible d’hésiter. A ce moment, si LY (648) doit devenir un objectif, l’ATDMF pourra le confirmer avec une très forte probabilité.

CAC 40 : forte baisse si PW = resistance durant 2 semaines

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Long term: towards 2400 or lower

On a yearly basis, see the dynamic for – 8 and next…MY failed as a support. 2400 is our first target. Our stochastic is overbought. 2400 should fail as a support. Below 2 000, LY (648) will be our next objective.

On a quarterly basis, a nice dynamic is in progress with each Bollinger band. Last close was below LQ. With our 7 / 23 quarters moving averages a bearish A type crossover is in progress (with theses facts, 2007 slide is not similar to the 2000 – 2003 one) The 23 moving average trend should continue, at least, until Q3 2013. Our MACD could be overbought for two periods or more. LY (648) is our main target.

On a monthly basis; a bearish parallel pattern is in progress for 4 to 15(?) periods.

Idea: very bearish as long as monthly bearish parallel pattern is in progress.

R = UW (3398), PM (3458); S = 2400, 2000, LY (648)

Medium term: always bearish as long as PW = resistance

On a weekly basis; as long as PW (3041) prove to be a resistance, our bearish parallel pattern is in progress. Above this target, UW (3399) is our next objective. With the monthly trend; a rise above UW will be only a technical recovery. Otherwise, if PW acts as a resistance this week and next weeks; a bearish non-crossover could develop. With this hypothesis, a new bear trend will be in progress. LM (2279) will be our first target.

Idea: as long as our 23 weeks moving average is down, a rise is only a technical recovery.

R = PW (3041), UW (3399); S = LW (2578)

Short term: recovery in progress

On a daily basis, Bollinger bands spread was not minimal on 23 March when a close occurred above UD. Furthermore, the weekly trend is not bullish. As long as our MACD is not overbought, the recovery in progress will continue

Idea: no specific trend for some days with the Bollinger bands spread.

R = PW (3041), UW (3399); S= MD (2762), LD (2538)

Conclusion: bearish on a monthly (and higher) time frame.

€ / CHF : reprise technique court terme?

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Long term: flat

On a yearly basis; our moving averages are flat, a bullish non-crossover could develop with our stochastic and MACD. This time frame is without trend.

On a quarterly basis, Bollinger bands are diverging and a close occurred below LQ. The status for our 7 / 23 quarters moving averages is a bearish A type crossover. Our stochastic and MACD are not oversold. On a monthly basis, a bearish parallel pattern is in progress.

Idea: bearish as long as PM (1.5581) acts as a resistance.

R = PM (1.5581); S = LW (1.4609)

Medium term: without trend

On a weekly basis, Bollinger bands spread is maximal. A bullish A type crossover could be the status for our 7 / 23 weeks moving averages. UW (1.5625) is our main resistance.

Idea: no opportunity.

R = UW (1.5625); S = MW (1.5117), LW (1.4609).

Short term: recovery?

On a daily basis, UD / LD spread wide. A bullish non-crossover could develop with our 7 / 23 days moving averages. With this hypothesis, PD (1.5432) and UD (1.563) are our objectives. With a close below MD (1.5146), LD (1.4662) will be a target.

Idea: rise with a bullish non-crossover for our 7 / 23 days moving averages.

R = PD (1.5432), UD (1.563); S = LD (1.4662).

Conclusion: nothing to do.

Le CAC 40

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Au-dessous de 1000.

Participez à une formation ATDMF pour apprendre à gérer la baisse et pour engranger des plus-values.

Quelques places sont disponibles :

Les dates proposées sont les suivantes (le lundi est facultatif):

Actions : avril : 11 & 12 ; mai : 9 & 10 ; 30 & 31 ; juin : 13 & 14

Devises : mai 2 & 3 ; 23 & 24 ; juin : 6 & 7, 27 & 28

Renseignements : atdmfcahen@yahoo.fr et voir Formation / training sur le site.

BCE :nouvelle baisse des taux

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Long term: higher

On a monthly basis, the status for our 7 / 23 months moving averages is a bullish A type crossover. Stochastic and MCD are oversold. With Bollinger bands, the pattern in progress is a bullish parallel one.

Idea: out below PW (98.503)

R = UW (98.958), +++; S= PW (98.503)

Medium term: bullish parallel pattern

On a weekly basis, a bullish parallel pattern is in progress.

Idea: use bullish parallel rules but out below PW (98.503)

R = UW (98.958); S = PW (98.503)

Short term: rise

On a daily basis, Bollinger bands spread is not minimal. The status for our 7 / 23 months moving averages is a bullish non-crossover. Our stochastic and MACD are up. As long as our MACD is not overbought, the rise in progress will continue.

Idea: towards UW (98.958) or above.

R = UW (98.958); S = MD (98.592)

Conclusion: ECB will act again.