Yearly trend: more declines is not ruled out

On a yearly basis; last period, MY acted as a support but T1 and PY price failed as supports. Our stochastic is overbought and our 7 / 23 years moving averages are not bearish.

Idea: with the stochastic status, 2008 low could fail as a support.

 

Long term: towards LQ (25.02)

On a quarterly basis, the spread UQ / LQ was maximal but shrinking now. With our 7 / 23 quarters moving averages, a bearish B type crossover will develop. Stochastic and MACD are overbought. LQ (25.02) could be a target as long as MQ (69.10) proves to be a resistance.

On a monthly basis, the spread UM / LM is maximal and expending. With our 7 / 23 months moving averages, a bearish BA type crossover is in progress. Our stochastic will be oversold in more than two periods.

Idea: a bearish non-crossover could develop with our stochastic.

R = UW (56.71, May 09), 60;   S = LW (42.18, May 09)

 

Medium term (May 09 contract): not bullish

On a weekly basis, PW acted as a resistance. A Bollinger bands spread is minimal. Our 23 weeks moving average will stay bearish for some periods. A rise will be only a technical recovery. Below MW (49.45), LW (42.18) will be our next target.

Idea: with a continuous contract; without a pseudo T1 this week, more weakness is ahead in April and May.

R = PW (54.68), UW (56.72);       S = MW (49.45), LW (42.18)

 

Short term (May 09 contract): towards LD (42.92) / LW (41.01)?

On a daily basis, Bollinger bands spread is wide. A B type crossover could develop with our 7 / 23 days moving averages. The status for our stochastic and MACD is a bearish non-crossover. LD (45.09) is our first objective.  

Idea: bearish pre-parallel pattern could develop soon.

R = PW (54.68);   S = LD (45.09)

 

 

Conclusion: lower if PW (54.68 may contract) act as a resistance.