Long term basis: Yearly bearish divergence with our stochastic and MACD => 500 as a first target

On a yearly basis, a bullish parallels pattern was in progress. The status for our MACD is a bearish divergence. Furthermore, our MACD and stochastic are overbought at the same period: a sharp decline is expected. Below 700, the collapse in progress will amplify. 500 and LY (184) are our next supports.

On a quarterly basis, Bollinger bands spread increase. The dynamic for our 7 quarters moving average is strong and will increase for 5 periods or more. A bearish A type crossover is in progress with our 7 / 23 quarters moving averages. Since the end of March 08 a bearish divergence is the status for our MACD. This is the status for our stochastic since December 2007.  The bear move is in progress for 3 quarters at least.

On a monthly basis; a bearish crossover PM / MM + increase of the dynamic for UM. A bearish A type crossover is in progress for our 7 / 23 months moving averages. The bear trend for our moving averages will increase until mid 2009 or +. The status for our stochastic and MACD is a bearish non-crossover. A bearish parallel pattern is in progress for some months (4 to 15?). Below 700, 500 and LY (184) are our next targets. 

Idea: use bearish parallels rules (monthly time frame).

R = UW (1106); S = 700, LW (688), 500, –

Medium term: bearish as long as MW (913) = resistance

On a weekly basis, Bollinger bands spread is far away from its minimal level. Stochastic and MACD are not yet overbought (bullish non-crossover). Next pattern for our 7 / 23 weeks moving averages could be a bearish non-crossover. As long as MW (913) proves to be a resistance, our next objectives are PW (752) and LW (719). Above MW, UW (1106) is our main objective.

Idea: with UW / LW spread, choppy without main trend until March.

R = MW (913), UW (1106);    S= PW (752), 700, LW (719)

Short term: UD / LD spread is not minimal

On a daily basis, Bollinger bands spread is not yet minimal but shrinking. A bearish B type crossover or a bearish non-crossover could be the status for our 7 / 23 days moving averages. Our stochastic and MACD are not overbought (bullish non-crossover). With a close above MD (847), UD (894) is our favourite target. Otherwise, LD (799) is our first objective. Afterwards, a recovery towards MD (847) is expected.

Idea: wait next week.

R = MD (847), UD (894);    S= LD (799)

.

Conclusion: monthly bearish parallel pattern in progress for some months.