Long term basis: Yearly bearish divergence with our stochastic and MACD => 500 as a first target

On a yearly basis, the status for our MACD is a bearish divergence. Furthermore, our MACD and stochastic are overbought at the same period: a sharp decline is expected. The collapse in progress could amplify. 500 and LY (182.74) are our next supports.

On a quarterly basis, Bollinger bands spread increase. The dynamic for our 7 quarters moving average is strong and will increase for 4 periods or more. A bearish A type crossover is in progress with our 7 / 23 quarters moving averages (in Q2 2002 it was a bearish B type crossover).Since the end of March 08 a bearish divergence is the status for our MACD. This is the status for our stochastic since December 2007.  The bear move is in progress for 3 quarters at least.

On a monthly basis; a bearish parallel pattern is in progress for some months (4 to 15?). 500 and LY (182.74) are our next targets. 

Idea: with a bearish non-crossover for our stochastic, correction of the XX century bullish trend => bear trend for one decade or more.

R = PM (988.33), MM (1162.7);    S = 666 (current low), 500, –

Medium term: without trend

On a weekly basis, Bollinger band spread is not minimal (until July?). If Bollinger bands are flat when prices = UW, the technical recovery will be over. A weak bullish A type crossover is in progress with our 7 / 2 3 weeks moving averages.  UW (943.77) is our next objective.

Idea: with the monthly trend, UW is a very strong resistance.

R = UW (943.77);    S= MW (829.34).

Short term: towards UW (943.77).

On a daily basis, Bollinger bands spread is thin but not minimal with the MD trend. Our 7 / 23 days moving averages are bullish. With the weekly trend, a bullish ATDMF pattern is unlikely. Below MD (866.95) a decline towards LD (821.75) is likely.

Idea: rise as long as MD (851.23) = support.

R = UW (943.77);      S= MD (866.95).

Conclusion: as long as UW (943.77) proves to be a resistance (at the close), a rise is only a technical recovery in a medium / long term bear market.