EUR / USD: very important week

Long term: weak

On a yearly basis, Bollinger bands spread is not minimal. Our 7 / 23 years moving averages will be flat. Stochastic and MACD are overbought. MY is our first support and 1.1640 (2005 low) is the next one.

On a quarterly basis, Bollinger spread is a reference one and is expending. A PEI is in progress for TAM tools. June 2010 low (1.1877) is our first objective.

On a monthly basis, the UM / LM spread is above a reference one. With a PEI for our stochastic, a type II could develop next month.

Idea: lower as long as our monthly stochastic is not oversold

Bet: below 1.1877 is not ruled out.

R= MQ (1.3836);    S= 1.2042 (current low), 1.1877, 1.1640, 1.000.

Medium term: technical recovery

On a weekly basis, as long as M23 trend is down, MW is a maximal target.

Idea: higher as long as our stochastic is not overbought

Bet: towards UW if 1.2748 (18/06 high) fails as a resistance.

R = 1.2748, UW (1.3107);     S = MD (1.2447), LW (1.2004).

Short term: toppish

On a daily basis, as long as MD proves to be a support (end of day) the main trend is up.

Idea: focus on our moving averages status

Bet: decline below MD.

R = 1.2748;   S = MD (1.2447), LD (1.2230).

Conclusion: as long as MD proves to be a support, the technical recovery in progress could continue.

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