Archives de l’auteur : Philippe

CAC 40 : choppy without main trend (some weeks)

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Long term basis: next quarterly MACD status will give the trend until 2012

On a yearly basis, the status for our stochastic is overbought. Our M7 is slightly bullish.  As long as MY proves to be a support, the recovery could continue.

On a quarterly basis, LQ / UQ spread is increasing with lower prices. A bearish no-crossover could be the status for our MACD (end of period). With this hypothesis, a collapse is in hand. Otherwise, above PQ, MQ is our next objective.

On a monthly basis, Bollinger bands spread is minimal. With the quarterly trend, UM and LM are our main targets. As long as MM proves to be a support, UM could be a target.

Idea: focus on our quarterly MACD status (end of period)

Bet: a bearish no-crossover with PQ could develop next period  

R = UM (4178);    S = MM (3480), LM (2783)

 

Medium term: Bollinger bands spread is maximal

On a weekly basis, our 7 / 23 weeks moving averages are without trend. As long as our stochastic is not overbought, the recovery in progress will continue. UW is a strong resistance and LW is our main support..

Idea: as long as MW proves to be a resistance (end of period), LW could be a target.

Bet: choppy

 

R = MW (3660), UW (4058);               S= MW (3675), LW (3308)

 

  

Short term: Bollinger bands spread is not minimal

On a daily basis, a decline is on progress for our moving averages, stochastic and MACD. Without main trend on a weekly basis, LD will be our main support.  With a close above MD, UD could be a far away resistance.

Idea: nothing to do next week

Bet:

R = MD (3648), UD (3834);     S= LD (3461)

 

Conclusion: choppy and without main trend for some weeks.

 

Euro-Bund contract : bullish (at least) until early 2011…

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Long term: bullish

On a quarterly basis, Bollinger bands spread is increasing. Our 7 / 23 quarters moving averages are up. Our stochastic and MACD will continue to rise. This bull trend will continue at least for three periods (mid 2011).

On a monthly basis, UM / LM spread is increasing. A bullish no-crossover is the status for our 7 / 23 months moving averages. Our stochastic and MACD are oversold. As long as PM proves to be a support, the bull trend in progress will continue or amplify.

Idea: buy long position

Bet:  bullish as long as PM proves to be a support (bullish pre-parallel pattern)

R= +, ++;    S= PM (122.89)

           

Medium term: bullish parallel pattern

On a weekly basis (continuous contract), a bullish parallel pattern is in progress.

Idea:  use bullish parallel rules

Bet: as long as our stochastic is not overbought, no technical correction could develop

R = UW (132.05), +, ++;   S = PW (127.37)

 

Short term: next week, qualification into a bullish parallel pattern

On a daily basis Bollinger bands spread is not minimal but the spread UD / LD increase dramatically.  With the weekly trend   a bullish crossover PD / MD is expected without correction. A bullish parallel pattern will be in hand.

Idea: buy long position next week

Bet: no decline before early September

R = UW (132.05);   S = MD (128.93)

Conclusion: very bullish

 

€ / Y: lower

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Long term:  lower than Historical low?

On a yearly basis, Bollinger bands are shrinking and the spread is minimal. A bearish no-crossover is the status for our 7 / 23 years moving averages. Our stochastic will be overbought at the beginning of the next period (same pattern for our MACD?) The decline in progress should continue for some periods. Below 89.59 (Historical Low), a long tem collapse is not ruled out.

On a quarterly basis, Bollinger bands spread is not minimal but expending strongly. A soft bearish no-crossover is in progress with our stochastic and MACD. As long as our MACD is not oversold, the decline will continue.

On a monthly basis, Bollinger bands spread is not minimal but increase. For our 7 / 23 months moving averages, a bearish no-crossover is in progress. As long as our MACD is not oversold, the decline will continue.

Idea: below 89.5 a collapse, on a long term basis will develop.

Bet: yearly stochastic and MACD will be overbought in early 2011…

R = PM (125.65);     S = 100, 89.59 (Historical low), – – -.

 

Medium term: bearish 

 On a weekly basis; if PW acts as a resistance a qualification into a bearish parallel pattern could develop next week.

Idea: bearish no-crossover for our 7 / 23 weeks moving averages before the end of August

Bet: PW will act as a resistance

R = PW (114.74);           S = LW (103.91)

 

Short term: decline

On a daily basis, UD / LD spread is minimal. Our weekly trend is not yet bearish. With a decline below LD, a technical decline will be in progress.

Idea: lower as long as our stochastic is not oversold

Bet: bearish pre-parallel at the end of August.

R = MD (112.89);   S = LD (111.52), 109.6

 

Conclusion: not yet bearish

 

Offre de rentrée

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L’analyse technique est faite pour anticiper les mouvements et non pas pour constater une tendance.

Les marchés vont décaler fortement en août. La rentrée est donc en ce début de mois.

Envoi  de nos prévisions (de quelques jours à un an) sur les principaux marchés financiers (or / pétrole, devises, taux, indices). Cette offre vous donne droit à une inscription gratuite à notre formation de base à des dates de votre choix. Ceci vous permettra, dans un premier temps, de savoir quels marchés éviter et ceux qui sont prometteurs.

Prix 3 300 €.

Renseignements : atdmfcahen@yahoo.fr

WTI: weak rise on a short term basis

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Yearly trend: higher

On a yearly basis, the pattern in progress is a bullish parallel pattern. The status for our MACD is a bullish no-crossover. Our 7 / 23 years moving averages are always on a bull trend.

Idea: use bullish parallel rules

Bet: qualification into a bullish bubble?

 

Long term: bearish no-crossover for our quarterly stochastic and MACD?

On a quarterly basis, the spread UQ / LQ is maximal. With our 7 / 23 quarters moving averages, a bullish pseudo no-crossover could develop this year. Without a bearish no-crossover as a status for our stochastic, a rise will develop and UM will be a target. Meanwhile, a bearish no-crossover could be the status for our stochastic and MACD. With this hypothesis (end of period) LQ will be our main target.

On a monthly basis, the spread UM / LM is shrinking and far away from its minimal level. A weak bullish no-crossover is the status for our MACD. As long as MM proves to be a support, UM is our main target.

Idea: without strong trend

Bet: monthly Bollinger bands could stabilize

R= UM (94.56);    S= MM (68.77), PM (60.44)

 

Medium term: Bollinger bands spread is flat

On a weekly basis, the spread UW / LW is flat and not minimal. Our stochastic is not overbought. UW could be our main target.

Idea: rise as long as MW proves to be a support

Bet: nothing to do

R = UW (86.93);     S = MW (77.94), LW (68.95)

  

Short term: rise

On a daily basis, UD / LD spread is not far away from the minimal level. As long as MD proves to be a support, a decline is only a technical move.

Idea: above 83, UW is our next objective

Bet: the rise will continue as long as M7 is up.

R = 83 (current high), UW (87.04);          S = MD (78.6)

 

Conclusion: rise in progress (medium term basis)

 

CAC 40: towards 4094?

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Long term basis: next quarterly MACD status will give the main trend

On a yearly basis, the status for our stochastic is overbought. Our M7 is slightly bullish.  As long as MY proves to be a support, the recovery could continue.

On a quarterly basis, LQ / UQ spread is increasing with lower prices. A bearish no-crossover could be the status for our MACD (end of period). With this hypothesis, a collapse is in hand. Otherwise, above PQ, MQ is our next objective.

On a monthly basis, Bollinger bands spread is minimal. With the quarterly trend, UM and LM are our main targets. As long as MM proves to be a support, UM could be a target.

Idea: recovery as long as MM proves to be a support  

Bet: towards LM if MM fails as a support.

R = UM (4186);    S = MM (3484), LM (2782)

 

Medium term: Bollinger bands spread is maximal

On a weekly basis, our 7 / 23 weeks moving averages are without trend. As long as our stochastic is not overbought, the recovery will continue. UW is our main target.

Idea: below MW, LW could be a target.

Bet: choppy

 

R = UW (4094);               S= MW (3675), LW (3287)

 

Short term: rise

On a daily basis, the status for our moving averages, stochastic and MACD is a weak bullish no-crossover. With this status, UW could be a target. The Bollinger bands spread is not minimal. If MD fails as a support, LD will be our main objective.

Idea: rise as long as MD = support

Bet:

R = UW (4094);     S= MD (3620), LD (3450)

 

Conclusion: rise as long as MD = support

 

10Y T-Note: higher for some months

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Long term: higher

On a yearly basis, the trend for our 7 / 23 years moving averages is up. A bullish no-crossover is the status for our stochastic and MACD. The rise in progress should extend.

On a quarterly basis, UQ / LQ spread is wide but increasing. A bullish no-crossover is in progress with our 7 / 23 quarters moving averages. Our stochastic and MACD are oversold at the same time. UQ is our first target.

On a monthly basis, our stochastic and MACD are oversold. The spread for Bollinger bands spread is wide. If PM fails as a resistance, 128.7 (Historical High) will be our next target.

Idea: bullish for some years

Bet: above 128.7 this year

 R = PM (125.03);    S = MM (119.38)

 

Medium term: bullish

On a weekly basis, our 7 / 23 weeks moving averages are up. A bullish no-crossover is the status for our stochastic. A qualification in bullish parallel is in progress. The rise will amplify.

Idea: use bullish parallel rules

Bet: very bullish

R = PM (125.03);    S = MW (119.9)

 

Short term: rise

On a daily basis, the status for our 7 / 23 weeks moving averages is a bullish no-crossover. As long as MD proves to be a support, a decline is only a technical move.

Idea: MACD as a leading indicator

Bet: MD is a strong support

R = PM (125.03);    S = MD (122.87)

 

Conclusion: fly to quality will continue and amplify…

 

€ /$: without main trend (short term basis)

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   Long term: towards LQ is not ruled out

On a yearly basis, Bollinger band spread is not minimal and could stay at the same level for some periods. Our 7 / 23 years moving averages will be without main trend. With an overbought status for our stochastic (early 2011), 1.164 (2005 low) is the first objective and LY is the next one.

On a quarterly basis, the status for our stochastic and MACD is a bearish no-crossover. Next pattern for our 7 / 23 quarters moving averages could be a bearish A type crossover. With this hypothesis, LQ is our first support. If MQ proves to be a resistance, a bearish pre-parallel pattern could develop.

On a monthly basis, the UM / LM spread is far away from its minimal level. A bearish A type crossover is the status for our 7 / 23 months moving averages. A bearish no-crossover could develop. As long as our MACD is not oversold, the decline will continue.

Idea: bearish as long as our quarterly stochastic is not oversold (at least for 3 periods)

Bet: bearish no-crossover on a quarterly and monthly basis.

R = MM (1.3646);    S= LM (1.2142), LQ (1.1587)

 

Medium term: without pattern

On a weekly basis, the bearish parallel qualification is over. As long as our stochastic is not overbought, UW could be a target.

Idea: end of the recovery with a close below MW

Bet: UW is a strong resistance

R = UW (1.379);     S = MW (1.2827), LW (1.1865)

  

Short term: riselrt term: no trend965Y (1.4243amilliales) enance personnelle.tellis

On a daily basis, a rise is in progress. As long as a bearish A type crossover is not the status for our  7 / 23 days moving averages, a bear move is only a technical correction.

Idea: end of the recovery with an overbought status for our MACD

Bet: as long as MD = support, the recovery in progress could continue.

R = 1.3053 (current high), UW (1.379);   S = MD (1.2908)

 

Conclusion: nothing to do on a short term basis (one day to three weeks)

 

 

 

Août : fini les vacances…

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Août est souvent un mois de pleine activité, cette année il se pourrait que la tradition soit respectée.

Pour notre part, nous sommes disponibles pour former les opérateurs qui souhaitent suivre une formation ATDMF individuelles ou en groupe à effectifs réduits. Quelques dates sont encore libres.

Renseignements : atdmfcahen@yahoo.fr