Archives de l’auteur : Philippe

Gold: focus on 1155

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Yearly trend: in 2012 /2013, qualification in a new bullish parallel pattern

On a yearly basis, a bullish parallel pattern is in progress with a strong dynamic for LY. PY will cross MY in more than one period. On a Historical basis, one of the most bullish pattern ever seen (since the end of XIX century). 

Idea: bullish no-crossover in progress for our stochastic

Bet: S&P 500 rise in the 95 / 2000 as a benchmark.

 

Long term: a new monthly bullish pattern qualification? wards LM (49.90ng as MQ (44.60

On a quarterly basis, the pattern is a bullish parallel one. The dynamic for our 7 / 23 quarters moving averages is strong. The status in progress for our MACD and our stochastic is a bullish no-crossover.

On a monthly basis, our 7 / 23 months moving averages are up with a bullish no-crossover in progress. If July low proves to be a support, a new parallel qualification could be in hand in early October after a PM / MM bullish crossover. Otherwise, MM could be a target. A bearish divergence is / could be the status for our stochastic. At the end of August; with an overbought status for our MACD, MM will be our main target.

 Idea: qualification in a new parallel pattern or not, that is the question

Bet: MM as a target below 1155

R = rise > 2 years, +++ (should be above 2 000, 3 000???);    S = 1155, MM (1051)

  

 

Medium term: out

On a weekly basis; last week, a close below MW occurred. The bullish parallel pattern is over. As long as our stochastic is not oversold, LW is our main target.

Idea: with Bollinger bands spread, LW is a strong support.

Bet: stabilization with a close above MW.

 

R = MW (1188), UW (1265)        S = LW (1110)

 

Short term: decline

On a daily basis, Bollinger bands spread is not minimal. With MD trend, our MACD is our leading indicator.

Idea: decline as long as PD proves to be a resistance

Bet: UD as a target if PD fails as a resistance. 

 

R = PD (1197), UD (1218);          S = LD (1162)

 

Conclusion: very bullish by summer end if 1155 acts as a support.

 

S&P 500: wait one more week…

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Long term basis: Yearly bearish divergence with our stochastic and MACD => 500 as a first target

On a yearly basis, the status for our MACD is a bearish divergence. Furthermore, our MACD and stochastic are overbought at the same period: a sharp decline is expected. The collapse in progress could amplify. 500 and LY are our next supports.

On a quarterly basis, a bearish A type crossover is in progress with our 7 / 23 quarters moving averages (in 2002, the crossover was a bearish B type). MQ acts as a resistance. A bearish no-crossover is the status for our MACD. LQ is our first support. If Bollinger bands spread increase, 666 (2009 low) will be our next target. The Collapse will continue as long as our MACD will be not oversold (end of period).

On a monthly basis, Bollinger bands spread is wide. UM should act as a resistance. A bearish A type crossover could be the status for our 7 / 23 months moving averages. Our stochastic is overbought.

Idea: towards LY if our MACD status id overbought.

Bet: Q2 close without recovery was bearish

R = UM (1219);    S = MY (959), LM (754), 666 (current low), 500, LY (277)

 

Medium term: bearish no-crossover as a status for stochastic and MACD

On a weekly basis, Bollinger band spread is increasing. The status for our 7 / 23 weeks moving averages is a bearish A type crossover. Dynamic over -24 periods is the most significant indicator after mid July. The status for our stochastic and MACD is a nice bearish no-crossover. MY is our first target.

Idea: bearish as long as our stochastic is not oversold

Bet: bearish pre-parallel in August

 

R = MW (1127);    S= MY (959)

 

 

Short term: flat

On a daily basis, Bollinger bands spread is wide and flat. Above MD, UD is our next main objective. LD is a strong support.

Idea: wait for Q2 earnings results

Bet:

R = MD (1070), UD (1138);                    S= LD (1014)

 

Conclusion:  wait

 

Troubles de la communication ?

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Certaines personnes parlent pudiquement de « double deep » pour caractériser la mollesse actuelle de l’économie. Avec l’ATDMF nous pensons qu’il serait honnête de dire que la reprise est terminée. 

En effet, le premier terme laisse penser « qu’au pire », la situation de début 2009 pourrait être égalée. Les analyses à l’aide de l’ATDMF des indices boursiers et des banques / compagnies d’assurances permettent d’avoir un point de vue différent.  Il s’agit d’une nouvelle situation à long terme portant sur plusieurs trimestres (années ?). Depuis plus d’un an nous répétons que les objectifs sont ceux du début de la hausse des années 90. Jusqu’à maintenant, l’ATDMF permettait de dire que cet événement se produirait si certaines conditions sont remplies. A partir du 1er juillet nous changeons de langage. Nous disons que tant que ces conditions ne sont pas remises en cause, l’effondrement des économies occidentales ne pourra que s’amplifier.

Laissez aux autres les dépressions nerveuses, les nuits hantées par des cauchemars liés à la disparition de leur capital. Utilisez l’ATDMF pour profiter des mouvements exceptionnels sur différents supports financiers, vivre une aventure exceptionnelle et vous enrichir.

 

atdmfcahen@yahoo.fr

Crude oil: technical recovery?

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Yearly trend: higher

On a yearly basis, the pattern in progress is a bullish parallel pattern. The status for our MACD is a bullish no-crossover. Our 7 / 23 years moving averages are always on a bull trend.

Idea: use bullish parallel rules

Bet: qualification into a bullish bubble?

 

Long term: flat

On a quarterly basis, the spread UQ / LQ is maximal but shrinking slowly. With our 7 / 23 quarters moving averages, a bullish pseudo no-crossover could develop this year. Without a bearish no-crossover as a status for our stochastic, a rise will develop and UM will be a target. Meanwhile, a bearish no-crossover could be the status for our stochastic and MACD. With this hypothesis (end of period) LQ will be our main target.

On a monthly basis, the spread UM / LM is flat and far away from its minimal level. With a close below MM and an overbought status for our stochastic and MACD, LM will be our favourite objective.

Idea: bearish no-crossover for our quarterly stochastic (and MACD)

Bet: monthly Bollinger bands could stabilize in early summer

R= UM (93.35);    S= MM (66), LQ (36.64)

 

Medium term: rise?

On a weekly basis, the spread UW / LW is shrinking but not yet minimal. A bearish A type crossover is in progress with our moving averages. The MACD is oversold. PW and UW are our objectives.

Idea: as long as PW = resistance a rise could be a technical recovery.

Bet: nothing to do

R = PW (81.26), UW (87.56);     S = LW (69.98)

 

Short term: recovery

On a daily basis, UD / LD spread is not minimal. Our moving averages; stochastic and MACD are up with a bullish no-crossover. As long as MD proves to be a support, the rise in progress will continue.

Idea: use our daily MACD as a leading indicator

Bet: nothing to do

R =PW (81.26);          S = MD (75.32), LD (70.89)

 

Conclusion: without clear trend

 

Formations ATDMF, renseignements : atdmfcahen@yahoo.fr

 

€-Bund: higher

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Long term: bullish

On a quarterly basis, Bollinger bands spread is increasing. Our 7 / 23 quarters moving averages are up. Our stochastic and MACD will continue to rise.

On a monthly basis, as long as our MACD is not overbought, the rise in progress will continue or amplify.

Idea: higher for some periods on a quarterly basis.

Bet:  above 130

R= 130, +, ++;    S= MM (123.04)

           

Medium term: bullish parallel pattern

On a weekly basis (continuous contract), a bullish parallel pattern is in progress.

Idea:  use bullish parallel rules

Bet: a new parallel qualification is in progress

R = 130, +, ++ ;   S = PW (126.59)

 

Short term: neutral

On a daily basis Bollinger bands spread is minimal. With the weekly trend, LD should act as a support. Above MD, UD is our next objective.

Bet: higher in July

R = UD (129.75)   S = LD (127.59)

Conclusion: very bullish if UD fails as a resistance